Architect Tips takes us through the declared runners in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton and implications for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.
Ryanair Chase Cheltenham clues at Kempton
At Kempton this Saturday, more Cheltenham Festival clues are likely to be revealed, including in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase, where we will see six horses line-up at 2:05pm.
It is likely to prove an informative guide for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase and have implications on ante-post market, pre-race, with the winner sure to shorten for that intended target if connections do decide to have a tilt at that respective championship race in March.
Silviniaco Conti Chase 2023 Runners
Pic D’Orhy
Recognised as an ideal prep for the Ryanair Chase which has produced a Ryanair winner in recent years in the form of Frodon, trainer Paul Nicholls will be looking to go down that similar route with Pic D’Orhy, who’s a warm 6/4 favourite this weekend to take the spoils.
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have shared the spoils in the last eight renewals of this 2m4f contest but with last year’s winner Mister Fisher absent and Nicky having no participant in this year’s line-up, this race presents a great opportunity for the champion trainer to win this for the third time in four years with two leading contenders.
Last month’s Peterborough Chase winner Pic D’Orhy, who is generally available at 33/1 for the Ryanair Chase (50/1 best price), has had his jumping issues but put those frailties aside when slamming a good field en route to that Grade 2 win last month under a confident Harry Cobden ride.
His jumping has been a lot more assured in winning both starts this term and he seems a more confident horse as well, ever since his tumble at Newbury last season. He is finally realising his true potential in this sphere and despite being rated three-pounds inferior to Paint The Dream, he is the one to beat.
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When he’s on-point, there a very few horses who can match him for pace and having gave jumps of weight to the runner-up on his seasonal debut at Newton Abbot, he produced an exhibition round of jumping last time to beat horses such as First Flow, Allmankind, Millers Bank (again) and even Mister Fisher, who won this 12 months ago.
Whether he can navigate his way around the undulations of Cheltenham’s course without any mistakes, which will put emphasis on his jumping, is another matter but he jumped impeccably over course-and-distance in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase in February and that form has been advertised by the second, third and fourth since.
If successful this weekend, it will certainly open up more options for him as to whether he will go to Cheltenham for the Ryanair or be saved for Aintree. Either way, the 33/1 won’t last for the formerly-mentioned race, so if you fancy him for that then I would say to take the price now before this weekend. Always consider the NRNB available too.
Paint The Dream
Paint The Dream is the highest-rated in the field and looked good winning that handicap at Newbury last time out. It’ll be interesting to see where the pace will come from this weekend as either himself and Pic can lead. I think it will come down to who jumps better on the day.
Fergal O’Brien’s charge, who is 33/1 for the Ryanair Chase, would also see his odds come down for that possible target if he can come out on top over the weekend. The nine-year-old clearly a good horse on his day but I think he faces a tough task this weekend, chiefly because he is yet to run at Kempton, whereas Pic D’Orhy has the sole visit here and won.
Even if he manages to beat the favourite, I am not sure his odds will rationally change much for the Ryanair either, as conversely, I don’t think that course plays to his strengths. Instead, I think he will go back to Newbury for the Greatwood Gold Cup, as he won that last year.
His form implicates this initial thought about Cheltenham too, given his figures at that venue reads 2030 - hardly inspiring, though his second to Midnight Shadow was good form but he would have finished third if Champ hadn’t fallen at the last fence.
Coole Cody
By contrast, Coole Cody and Saint Calvados would be more appealing propositions when it comes to discussing Cheltenham Festival clues in this race. Cody beat Saint in a match-race in the Grade 2 Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase at Ascot last-time-out but the latter was conceding fitness and should bridge the gap this weekend.
Evan Williams’ charge, however, is 16/1 best price for this weekend’s race and is available at 25/1 with for the Ryanair Chase. He has loads of form at Cheltenham and has been a grand servant for his connections. His longevity cannot be disputed.
I have a lingering feeling he might try to repeat the feat in the Plate on the same day as the Ryanair - a race he won last year, which would be the easier option. He is theoretically a few pounds short of Grade One class and is almost a teenager but could book his ticket to the Festival with a sufficient performance here.
Saint Calvados
Paul Nicholls has also confirmed the participation of Saint Calvados, who will be partnered by David Maxwell. He is rated the exact same as Pic D’Orhy, at 157, so some might see him as fair value for this weekend’s race and also the Ryanair Chase - a race he finished second in three years ago to Min.
The fact that he is the only one of these with form in the Ryanair will count for plenty if you consider backing him for that race in less than two months’ time. The 10-year-old has been lightly raced since that career-best performance but did manage a third place in the King George over a year later plus he looked on good terms himself when winning at Sandown earlier last year.
He looked like making a successful return at Ascot in a match-race with Coole Cody but hit a brick wall when his lack of fitness told, eventually finishing second by 10 lengths. He will be fitter in this race and his 66/1 price tag for the Ryanair seems an insult, especially if he wins this, as those odds will be long gone.
Moreover, his only two previous runs at Kempton has saw him finish fourth and third in two King George events plus he’s ground-versatile and will get a lovely pace to aim at. The drop in trip shouldn’t prove an issue and if he is successful in this, he could be an outsider to consider in the Ryanair, so I would recommend taking his price now if you like him.
Angels Breath & Clondaw Castle
Finally, Angels Breath and Clondaw Castle both have fairly long absences to overcome but both are good horses on their day and the former is definitely the most interesting runner in the field. It is great to see him back after 1100+ days off the track due a serious leg injury
The now nine-year-old was seventh in the 2019 Supreme Novices' Hurdle and won both his chase starts in late 2019, both at Ascot before injury struck. It remains to be seen if he retains all his old ability after three years away, plus it would be one hell of a training performance if he was to win.
He is 100/1 for the Ryanair Chase, where again, the odds seem wildly large for a horse who has always been held in high regard. He’s 8/1 for the Silviniaco Conti Chase and, let’s say he finished in the first two, his price would drop significantly for that race at the Festival.
Even if he gets beaten a long way, it’s a credit to Sam Thomas that he is even able to get him back on a racecourse, which at one stage, looked highly doubtful.
As mentioned earlier, I wouldn’t be sure either Paint The Dream or Coole Cody would line-up in the Ryanair but Paul Nicholls will probably send one of his two runners here to the Ryanair if successful. Keep an eye out on the returning Angels Breath as well though, as it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he was to make up for lost time.
