Ginger Joe reviews the five most popular bets through oddschecker giving his verdict on them.
With the Cheltenham Festival now just two weeks away, the markets are lively and some names are standing out more than others. I’ve taken a look at the five most popular horses on Oddschecker and run through each one, analysing their form, potential and value right now, in comparisson to their prices.
For each horse, I’ve given a verdict on whether they’re a bet right now, or not, helping you separate the genuine chances from the hype. Not long now until it all unfolds!
OLD PARK STAR - Supreme Novice Hurdle 9/4 (No Bet)
The first horse we’re going to look at is Old Park Star for Nicky Henderson. He’s been nothing short of spectacular this season and seems to take a step forward every time he runs.
He’s three from three over hurdles and has looked seriously professional on each occasion, showing a huge amount of class. He’s already shown he can handle different tracks too, winning at Kempton right-handed on good ground on hurdles debut, before really catching the eye when switched left-handed at Cheltenham.
That Cheltenham run came on the New Course and he showed every attribute you’d want to see from a Supreme Novices Hurdle type.
He’s a powerful traveller, and if anything he travels even better when the tempo lifts. His jumping has been seriously good too. That’s particularly interesting because a lot of the novices towards the head of the market this season have shown little flaws at their hurdles, but not him, he just gets quicker and slicker as the race develops.
Even at the last, every time so far, he wings it and lands running again. He’s a serious animal. The question is whether he’s a bet right now at 9/4. It’s a tough one. He’s probably fair value at the price and I do think he’s the right favourite.
But this is the Cheltenham Festival, and the very first race of the week at that, so bookmakers will be desperate to take him on. That opens up the possibility that he could drift slightly on the morning, even if only for a short window.
So while I think he’s the most likely winner, I’d say he’s no bet at the current price. Take your chance and wait. You might just get a bigger number on the day.
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KOPEK DES BORDES - Arkle Chase 9/4 (No Bet)
Kopek Des Bordes has only been seen once this season, and that does slightly temper the enthusiasm. But ability wise, I think he’s the best pure two-miler in this line-up.
Check out the odds for the Arkle here.
Yes, Lulamba has had the luxury of three runs this term and has progressed nicely with each start. But I still can’t get away from the fact he was beaten by Poniros at Cheltenham last season, with plenty of other average sorts in and around him.
In contrast, Kopek Des Bordes made a mistake at the last in a Supreme and still managed to get the job done. That tells you plenty about the engine he has. I just think he possesses the bigger motor for a strongly run two miles.
While we’ve only seen him once this season, it’s fair to say he was flawless that day. If he’d jumped poorly or scrambled home, you’d have concerns, but he didn’t. He was sharp, professional, and did exactly what you’d want to see. That keeps him firmly of interest. I’m not overly worried that we haven’t seen him since.
If he turns up at the Cheltenham Festival, he’ll be there to win, and Willie won’t run him unless he’s absolutely ready. I’ve changed my mind on this race a couple of times as the season has unfolded, but as we edge closer, I’m increasingly convinced he’s the number one. Like a few in these Festival races though, there’s every chance he could drift slightly on the day, so even though I think he wins, be patient with regards to backing him.
CONSTITUTION HILL - Champion Hurdle 3/1 (Bet with NRMB)
Constitution Hill has dominated the headlines recently, and the big question is whether he’ll even line up at the Cheltenham Festival.
The first thing to say is simple. If you’re backing him now, it absolutely has to be with the non-runner money-back concession. In my opinion, he’s far from certain to run.
He was nothing short of sensational on the all weather last week, reportedly clocking close to 40mph up the straight. There is no doubt about the engine though, he’s pure dynamite.
The concern, of course, revolves around his jumping. The former Champion Hurdle winner has fallen on three of his last four starts, and that’s what has created the uncertainty around his Festival participation. That’s the risk, and it’s a fair one.
Personally, I’d run him at Cheltenham. He’s the best horse in the race by a clear margin, and you could argue he wouldn’t even need to be at absolute peak to win it because his raw ability is just so far ahead. I understand the dangers, of course, but I don’t see why his career should suddenly pivot to the Flat.
He’s a jumps horse, bred for this game, let him run. That would be my view. That said, what I’d like to see and what I think will happen are probably two different things.
I suspect Nicky Henderson and Michael Buckley may decide it’s not worth the risk, and that’s entirely their call.
So is he a bet right now? If you would happily back him on the day at the current non-runner money-back price, then you can take the view that you’ve nothing to lose. But that concession is absolutely key here. If you’re getting involved, make sure it’s in place.
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MIGHTY PARK - Turners Novice Hurdle 4/1 (No Bet)
Willie Mullins has an abundance of talent in his yard and Mighty Park looks another smart one on the roster.
Check out the Turners Novice Hurdle odds here.
He finished runner-up in his point-to-point behind Harry Lowes, who subsequently joined Dan Skelton, but Mighty Park always looked the one with the bigger long-term upside.
On his hurdles debut at Fairyhouse, he absolutely bolted up in a maiden by 38 lengths, with stablemate Roc Dino back in second.
He jumped well enough and the performance was smooth from start to finish, but it’s difficult to truly weigh up the substance of that form. Wide-margin maiden wins can sometimes flatter, and you often need to take them with a pinch of salt.
That said, Roc Dino has run solid races since, and Mighty Park brushed him aside without coming off the bridle. It was pretty breathless. He’s a very likeable horse and one I’ve had on the radar for a while. The issue now is the price.
At 4/1, it feels a little tight based purely on what he’s achieved so far. Without rock-solid substance to the form, it’s hard to say that represents value. At the same time, I wouldn’t be shocked if he took another big step forward as he clearly has the talent.
The bigger concern for me is experience. He hasn’t had a horse anywhere near him in the closing stages yet, so we don’t know how he’ll react when something eyeballs him. In a deep race, that’s not ideal.
I do think he’s classy, but in a contest like this, 4/1 just feels on the short side right now.
SELMA DE VARY - Triumph Hurdle 4/1 (No Bet)
You always have to keep an eye on Willie Mullins’s juveniles, especially those running in Rich Ricci’s silks. Selma De Vary has been well backed for the Triumph Hurdle since it was announced that former favourite Narciso Has would miss the Festival.
She’s earned that attention too. On her debut for Mullins, she was thrown in at the deep end in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival,
finishing second to Narciso Has. It was a big effort for a debutant, and she stayed strong all the way to the line looking like there was plenty more to come.
That’s very encouraging and shows she’ll arrive at Cheltenham with a real chance. That said, Mullins has a number of other juveniles worth your consideration, and I’d place Selma De Vary slightly lower in the pecking order.
Personally, I wouldn’t be rushing to back her… unless Paul Townend is in the saddle. I wouldn’t be interested in backing the mare right now.
