oddschecker look at the latest movements in the market for Boris Johnson’s exit date as well as the next Conservative Leader odds.
One bookmaker has slashed odds for Boris Johnson to exit Downing Street in 2022 from 5/2 to 7/4 after confirmation that the Prime Minister and Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be fined by the police for breaking lockdown rules. The PM’s wife Carrie Johnson will also be given a fixed penalty notice.
It has not been confirmed which event the fines are linked to; however, all three were reported to be at the same gathering for Mr Johnson’s birthday in June 2020.
As expected, the Prime Minister is now back under pressure from opposition leaders with Sir Keir Starmer (Labour leader) and Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish First Minister) calling on Johnson and Sunak to resign. ‘Bojo’ becomes the first Prime Minister in history to be sanctioned for breaking the law.
If you fancy the PM to stick it out and not leave until 2023 then you can get this at best odds of 7/2, while if you think he won’t exit until 2024 or later this is currently at best odds of 11/10. 89% of bets on the oddschecker grids have seen punters backing a 2022 exit date.
One bookmaker have today cut 2022 to be Boris Johnson's exit date from 5/2 to 7/4.
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) April 12, 2022
2023 - 7/2
2024 - EVS pic.twitter.com/YXKAu61F1i
Next Conservative Leader?
If Mr Johnson was to resign, who could be the most likely candidate to lead the Tories?
The foreign secretary Liz Truss leads the way at best odds of 6/1 (worst price 4/1), but these odds are shortening so expect to see some more movement in the coming days.
Tom Tugendhat is second favourite at 9/1 and the former soldier has publicly stated that he would stand for Prime Minister should Boris Johnson resign.
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Rishi Sunak was the favourite a few weeks ago but has now drifted off the back of his fine from the police and news around his wife’s tax affairs. He is currently as long as 23/2 with one bookmaker.
Another candidate at the top of the market is Jeremy Hunt (10/1). Further down the market we have Ben Wallace (12/1), Penny Mordaunt (12/1) and Sajid Javid (17/1).
| Next Conservative Party Leader | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liz Truss | 6/1 |
| Tom Tugendhat | 9/1 |
| Jeremy Hunt | 10/1 |
| Rishi Sunak | 12/1 |
| Ben Wallace | 12/1 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 12/1 |
