The latest next Prime Minister odds before Tuesday’s State Opening of Parliament, expected to be the last before the next general election.
Tuesday morning brings the State Opening of Parliament - the first of King Charles III’s rule - to commemorate the start of the 2023/24 parliamentary year.
As is tradition, the ceremony will begin with the search of the House of Parliament’s cellars in observation of the failed 1605 Gunpowder Plot.
In the last general election cycle, British politics has been more explosive than Fawkes, Catesby and co-managed to be - in a metaphorical sense of course.
This parliamentary cycle will bring with it a General Election that is predicted to bring an end to 13 years of Conservative rule.
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Next Prime Minister Odds
Rishi Sunak’s greatest competitor and huge favourite in the next Prime Minister odds is Labour leader Keir Starmer (1/5 chance). Despite Sunak holding office at No. 10 Downing Street, the bookmakers have the next general election as a virtual one-horse race.
After recent by-election victories in which new Labour MPs, Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards overturned huge Conservative majorities in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth, the writing seems to be very much on the wall for Sunak.
Starmer is ranked as the runaway favourite at 1/5 to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Sunak has the reverse odds, having slipped to 5/1 to be voted in by the public. While traditional third-horse, the Liberal Democrats, have their leader Ed Davey down at 250/1.
Government after Next Election Odds
| Result | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Labour Majority | 33/100 | 1/4 |
| Labour Minority | 5/1 | 5/2 |
| Labour - Lib Dem Coalition | 8/1 | 7/1 |
| Conservative Majority | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| Conservative Minority | 14/1 | 9/1 |
As you might expect, Labour also lead the running to form a majority in Government after Next General Election betting market. At 1/3 (implied 75% chance), the market seems convinced that recent results, polls and the failure of the Conservative governments leads to only one outcome: complete Labour victory. So, will it simply be a case of by how much?
A Labour Minority would fetch you 5/1 and a Labour-Lib Dem Coalition comes in at 8/1. Meanwhile, a Conservative Majority has expectedly long odds at 12/1, and a Conservative Minority at 14/1.
Most Seats Next General Election
Labour are again favourites at 1/7 to have the most seats at the next UK General Election, while the Conservatives stand at 6/1 and the Lib Dems at 250/1.
Controversial former Lewis actor, Laurence Fox, has his Reclaim Party valued at 100/1 to take the most seats in next year’s general election.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Next Conservative Leader | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 7/2 | 11/4 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 11/2 | 9/2 |
| James Cleverly | 9/1 | 15/2 |
| Suella Braverman | 14/1 | 5/1 |
| Gillian Keegan | 25/1 | 16/1 |
If you’re going to place any bets on the Conservative Party in the next year, it may not be on the General Election itself, but on who will succeed Rishi Sunak. With defeat staring the Tories in the face, there are several names in the running to succeed the current PM.
Leading the chase is Kemi Badenoch, the current Secretary of State for Business and Trade is valued at 7/2 to be the next party leader. MP for Portsmouth North, Leader of the Commons and social media star, Penny Mordaunt is one of Badenoch’s nearest challengers at 11/2.
Meanwhile Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, is another favourite at 9/1, with Boris Johnson also in the running at 50/1 to make a characteristic but unexpected return to 10 Downing Street.
Sunak Exit Date Odds
The next natural question to ask is when will Sunak leave? And the likeliest answer, according to the bookmakers, is 2024 (10/11 best price).
With a colossal loss in the offing, can he cling on to his leadership until 2025? Or will he be forced out in anticipation of such a big expected defeat?
The General Election will be held no later than 28 January 2025. Sunak is 11/10 to head out of the exit door in 2025. For the current PM to leave his post in 2024, when the election could also feasibly take place, he is a slightly shorter 10/11 (worst price 13/20).
It is highly unlikely Sunak will leave in 2023. A bet on this eventuality would fetch a best price 25/1, although some bookmakers have it as short as 10/1.
