July 4th General Election: Odds on Next Conservative Leader & Sunak Exit Date

July 4th General Election: Odds on Next Conservative Leader & Sunak Exit Date

Rishi Sunak has just called an election for July 4th.

Throughout the day, UK bookmakers have been slashing odds for there to be a General Election between July and September following rumours that Rishi Sunak would call an election in July.

The official Downing Street response throughout most of the day was just that the election will take place in the second half of the year - something which was already committed to and, of course, included the rumoured (now confirmed) July date.

Now we know the Cabinet meeting at 4pm included Sunak informing ministers he was heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4th July.

It is also being reported that letters calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak are being submitted by Conservative MPs caught off-guard by today's announcement.

15% of Conservative MPs must submit a letter before the party holds a leadership election, which means 52 letters are needed.

Rishi Sunak Exit Date Odds

Sunak is more than 90% likely to exit in 2024 according to exit date odds of 1/12 on Betfair.

Next Prime Minister Odds

Rishi Sunak is only 13% likely to retain his position as the Prime Minister after the next General Election on July 4th even at the shortest odds through oddschecker. The best price at the time of writing is 8/1 on William Hill (11% chance).

Sir Keir Starmer is as short as 1/40 to be the Prime Minister after the next general election, while his Labour party are 1/9 to hold a majority government.


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Next Conservative Leader Odds

Kemi Badenoch (Secretary for Business and Trade) is the 7/2 favourite on Ladbrokes to succeed Rishi Sunak as the next Conservative leader, edging Penny Mordaunt (Leader of the House of Commons) who is a general 5/1 chance (shortest 7/2). Newark MP Robert Jenrick is third favourite at a biggest price 19/2.

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