Keir Starmer Odds to Win the General Election on July 4th

Keir Starmer Odds to Win the General Election on July 4th

Keir Starmer is the overwhelming favourite to be the next Prime Minister of the UK in just over six weeks' time.

This evening, Rishi Sunak officially announced the 4th July general election, saying that he was guided by "doing what is right for our country".

In his public address, Sunak talked up his decision to invest in local transport over HS2 and how immigration is coming down, while saying his government is working to ensure the next generation can grow up smoke-free.

Despite his call for support, Keir Starmer is 89% likely to be the next Prime Minister even at best odds of 1/8 through oddschecker (Sky Bet). At his shortest price of 1/40, he is rated nearly 98% likely to take up office post the general election on July 4th.


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Throughout the day, UK bookmakers had been slashing odds for there to be a General Election between July and September following rumours that Rishi Sunak would call an election in July.

The official Downing Street response throughout most of the day was just that the election will take place in the second half of the year - something which was already committed to and, of course, included the rumoured (now confirmed) July date.

Bookmakers have now closed the market on a 2024 exit date for Sunak, who is only 13% likely to retain his position as the Prime Minister after the next General Election even at the shortest odds through oddschecker (8/1).

According to the next conservative leader odds market, Sunak's likeliest replacements are Secretary for Business and Trade Kemi Badenoch (7/2 favourite on Ladbrokes) or Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (best price 11/2).

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