General Election Odds 2024: Labour Majority growing by the day

General Election Odds 2024: Labour Majority growing by the day

The writing looks to be on the wall for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative party.

General Election forecasts don't make good reading for the Conservative party.

The spread betting markets for the General Election point towards an annihilation at the polls for the Tories. While not yet at a ‘Canada 93’ stage (where the Canadian Conservative party lost 154 seats to leave them with just 2) things are looking gloomy for Sunak and co. 

Spreadex have the Conservatives’ seat spread at just 112-120 with the news that Nigel Farage was to stand for Reform UK causing a tumble in the market.

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Farage, despite declaring he did not wish to spend every Friday in Clacton, will be standing in the Essex constituency and after seven failed attempts at getting elected, he will be hoping to make it eighth time lucky. 

With incumbent MP Lee Anderson standing for the party and several former Tories throwing their weight behind the campaign, Reform look set to split the vote on the right with the party’s seat spread at 5-7.

After 14 years out in the cold, Labour are all but certain to sweep to power on July 4th with the seat projections at 425-435, which if true, would be one of the biggest seat totals won for generations. Keir Starmer was less than impressive in the televised debate with Sunak, but thanks to the latter’s D-Day disaster, Labour are still primed for a crushing victory.

With anti-Tory sentiment strong across the country, the Liberal Democrats are well placed to make a huge improvement on their 2019 General Election total of 11 seats won. Ed Davey has led a somewhat interesting campaign, but the affable 58-year-old has come across well and according to Spreadex, his party are poised to take between 48 and 52 seats.

North of the border, the SNP have had a rough time of it lately and they are unlikely to repeat their success of 2019 when they landed 48 seats. 

Rocked by several leadership scandals, John Swinney is the man tasked with guiding the SNP through this election, but with Spreadex setting the SNP seat spread at 20-23, there are opportunities for Labour and the Lib Dems to make gains in Scotland.

As an example of how to place a spread bet on this market, if you placed a £1 buy on Labour at 425-435 and they won 450 seats, you would win £15, but if they only won 425 you would lose £10.

Be sure to check out Spreadex's website if you are thinking of placing a spread bet on the upcoming general election.

Main Party Seat Projections

Party Seat Projection
Labour 430
Conservative 116
Liberal Democrat 50
SNP 22
Reform UK 6
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