Who is on track to win each of the seven key swing states in the 2024 US Election?
We break down the likelihood of the Democrats or the Republicans winning the seven key swing states in next week’s US Election as Trump vs Harris gets set to go to the wire.
Using the most recent betting odds, let’s explore the projected probabilities for each party and recent betting trends in these competitive states.
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US Election Odds
October has been a pivotal month in US Election betting.
After being neck and neck with Kamala Harris since her nomination as the Democratic candidate, Trump has gained a clear lead throughout October.
Starting the month with a 49% implied probability of winning, Trump’s latest odds now give him a commanding 64% chance of victory in next week’s election.
Trump has dominated the October betting share, capturing 60% of bets placed through oddschecker — a notable increase from the 47% he received over July, August and September.
Georgia Election Odds
Since the betting market opened on oddschecker in late June, the Republican party has remained the steady favourite to win in Georgia.
Over the past 30 days on Oddschecker, 63% of bets placed on this market have backed the Republicans to win Georgia (60% since market opened).
North Carolina Election Odds
Since the North Carolina market went live on our site in June, the Republicans position as the betting favourite has weakened after being at a high of 80% probability of victory in late June/early August. That figure has since steadied around the 60% probability mark.
The Democrats have dominated the betting on oddschecker in terms of wagers. 78% of all bets placed on this market over the past 30 days have backed the Democrats to win North Carolina.
Pennsylvania Election Odds
Pennsylvania has been our busiest state betting market by far in terms of bets, and it is the Republican party who have taken the higher share, taking 57% of all best placed with oddschecker.
This market has ebbed and flowed between the two parties since the betting went live, however, the Republican’s have kept their position has betting favourites for the entirety of October.
Michigan Election Odds
After having a probability as high as 65% in late September, the sentiment in Michigan has changed in recent weeks with the Republicans going into betting favourites earlier in October.
The Democrats have since regained the position as betting favourites but this is one of the tightest state betting markets.
Since the start of October, the Republicans have a slight edge in terms of total bets, picking up 52% of the bets to the Democrats 48%.
Wisconsin Election Odds
A similar story in Wisconsin, where the Democrats position as market favourites has vanished through the month of October.
Heading into the month with a 61% probability, that figure now stands at 46% as the Republicans dominate the betting. 54% of all bets placed on this market in October have sided with the Republican party.
Nevada Election Odds
A huge shift in the betting over the past seven days has seen the Democrats go from 10/11 favourites in Nevada to 6/4 outsiders.
Over the last week, we’ve seen 68% of bets placed backing the Republicans to win in Nevada, an increase from 51% in the 30 days prior. As it stands, Nevada is the Republicans’ second strongest betting position in the “swing states”.
Arizona Election Odds
Republicans have taken over the betting to win Arizona in the past month and a half.
They’ve gone from being neck and neck in the odds in mid-August, to having a high of 73% probability of winning the state. 70% of the bets placed through oddschecker in the past 30 days have backed a Republican win in Arizona.
