The swing state odds latest as Iowa polls grab attention over the weekend in the US Election.
A new poll of voters yesterday suggested that Kamala Harris is leading in the state of Iowa with 47% over Donald Trump's 44%.
In 2020, Trump won by eight points in Iowa, which hasn't been a swing state since 2012 - the last year a Democrat won it.
The lead Harris holds in the poll by Ann Selzer, driven by both women and independent voters, remains within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
How does Iowa compare with the other key battleground states in the US Election?
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Iowa Betting Odds
Despite the attention for Iowa's weekend poll as Trump vs Harris nears its conclusion, the Republicans remain nearly 78% likely to win the state even at best price of 2/7 on Ladbrokes.
The Democrats chances of winning Iowa increased from 12/1 to a shortest 3/1 (25%) with some bookmakers over weekend, yet they remain 15/4 on William Hill (21%).
Swing State Odds
Using the most recent betting odds, let’s revisit the projected probabilities for each party in the seven swing states after Trump and Harris blitzed the battleground states over the final weekend of campaigning.
Donald Trump held rallies in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, while Kamala Harris made stops throughout Michigan to try and turn the Republican tide in the state.
Georgia Election Odds
Since the betting market opened on oddschecker in late June, the Republican party has remained the steady favourite to win in Georgia.
The Democrats narrowed the gap somewhat in August but the Republicans appear firmly on course to win at 4/9 with some bookmakers including bet365.
North Carolina Election Odds
The Republicans' position as the favourite in North Carolina has weakened after being at a high of 80% probability of victory in the summer months.
That figure steadied around the 60% probability mark but is now +63% even at the biggest price available through oddschecker.
Pennsylvania Election Odds
Pennsylvania has been the busiest state betting market on oddschecker by far in terms of bets, with the Republican party taking a close to 60% share. The odds suggest it is really close but Trump's party are expected to sneak the win.
Michigan Election Odds
After having a probability as high as 67% in mid August, the sentiment in Michigan has changed in recent weeks with the Republicans stealing favouritism two weeks ago.
The Democrats have since regained the position as betting favourites but this is one of the tightest state betting markets (implied 51% likely to go the Democrats' way)
Wisconsin Election Odds
The Democrats' position as market favourites in Wisconsin also weakened in October, but in this case Harris seemingly hasn't been able to stem the tide.
As we stand, the Republicans are given a 55% chance of winning having been less than 40% likely at the end of September.
Nevada Election Odds
A huge shift in the betting last week saw the Democrats go from 10/11 favourites in Nevada to 6/4 outsiders (now a best price 13/10 on Betway).
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Nevada was in 2004 but Trump is more than 60% likely to do so this time around at shortest prices of 8/13.
Arizona Election Odds
The Republicans have accelerated clear in Arizona having neck and neck in mid-August. Trump's chances of winning the state have been a constant +70% in the last three weeks.
