Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan: State-by-state odds and predictions for the US Election Trump vs Harris

Over the years, several states have flipped between Democrats and Republicans, making them a key hallmark of a US President's rise to the White House.

Each state has a specific number of Electoral College Votes (ECVs), which is equal to the number of Senators and Representatives in its US Congressional delegation. 

Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are aiming to win enough states in order to reach the magic number of 270 ECVs, which will give them ownership of the White House for the next four years.

To get there, both Trump and Harris will have states they will most likely win: Florida and Texas for Trump, New York and California for Harris. But it's the key battleground states that will likely decide who becomes the next President of the United States.

The seven states below, plus Iowa which has reportedly become a potential swing state, hold 99 ECVs, win all of those and Trump or Harris will be a guarantee to win the US Election on Tuesday, November 5th.

Let's take a look at each of the key battleground states, their odds for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and when each result is likely to emerge on a busy night of American politics.

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Pennsylvania

Electoral College Votes: 19
Favourite: Donald Trump

Considered by some as the biggest prize on US Election night, whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to be moving into the White House to become the next US President.

This state was won by Donald Trump back in 2016 when he stormed to a shock win over Hillary Clinton but claimed back by the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020.

The economy is a key issue among votes in Pennsylvania and the bookmakers suggest Trump will reclaim this crucial swing state.

But the margins are close, as you can see in the odds below, implied probability and what you would get if you placed a £10 bet on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to win Pennsylvania.

When will the Pennsylvania result be announced?

Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8pm local time, 1am UK time. We should get a first projection of the state's voting intentions shortly after that. 

However, the Keystone State does not allow officials to start counting the mailed-in votes until the day of the election itself, unlike a lot of states including fellow swing state Michigan. 

This means it could take much longer to see an outcome of this crucial state. In 2020, the result of Pennsylvania was declared after Joe Biden had already secured enough ECVs for victory. It might be very different this time around.

Georgia

Electoral College Votes: 16
Favourite: Donald Trump

Georgia was the main focus of Donald Trump's rage at the outcome of the 2020 US Election as Joe Biden took the stage.

Trump claimed election interference, something which has landed the ex-President in one of four criminal prosecutions after being accused of conspiring to overturn his narrow defeat to Biden in the state. 

Nevertheless, Trump is odds on to win the Peach State with AK Bets providing the best odds of 8/15. Kamala Harris is out at 7/4.

When will the Georgia result be announced?

Election officials can process absentee ballots as they arrive and can start counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day, meaning the process should be much quicker than in 2020.

According to reports, more than half of registered voters have already cast their vote via the early voting options.

The polls will close at 7pm local time, midnight UK time as pollsters start to make their early calls for the outcome of the US Election.

North Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 16
Favourite: Donald Trump

With 16 ECVs, North Carolina is one of the biggest swing states in this article, with only Pennsylvania holding more.

Many pollsters are suggesting it is too close to call in the Tar Heel State but the bookmakers have made their stand, siding with Donald Trump.

Trump won this 'purple' state back in 2020 with a majority of 70,000 and many bookies are expecting the same outcome.

Coral are providing the best odds right now for Donald Trump, giving away 4/7 as BoyleSports go 7/4 for Kamala Harris, the best odds on the market.

When will the North Carolina result be announced?

Quick results have been a theme in North Carolina over the years and could stand as an indication as to where the election is going.

Polls will be closing at 12.30am GMT and will postal ballot having already been processed, tallying up the votes to decide who has won North Carolina should be much quicker than some other swing states.

However, damage caused by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina could mean delays to this traditionally speedy state.

Michigan

Electoral College Votes: 15
Favourite: Kamala Harris

The Great Lakes State is another in the Rust Belt that is often a bellwether state which will likely reflect the outcome of the US Election.

Holding 15 crucial ECVs, this state has backed the right horse in the past two elections, supporting Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

Despite backing the Democrats, there has been discontent among voters, particularly on Biden's policy in the Middle East. But Harris still holds a slender lead in the polls and that's reflected with the bookies

Betfred are currently offering the best odds for a Harris victory at 8/15, with BetMGM showcasing the best Trump odds at 7/4.

When will the Michigan result be announced?

All polling stations in Michigan will close between 1am and 2am UK time.

After delays in results in 2020, Michigan changed the way it counts votes, allowing counters to tally up postal votes before ballots open on US Election Day, meaning we should know the outcome earlier than 2020.

Arizona

Electoral College Votes: 11
Favourite: Donald Trump

The Grand Canyon State was crucial to Joe Biden's success in the 2020 US Election when he hoovered up 11 ECVs en route to defeating Donald Trump.

The odds suggest Donald Trump could reclaim the state, which has been a focal point for the immigration debate as well as abortion rights - both policies could easily decide the outcome of this election.

Paddy Power are currently offering the best odds on Donald Trump to claim Arizona at 1/4 with multiple bookmakers offering 5/2 odds on a Harris wn.

When will the Arizona result be announced?

Set your clocks for 2am GMT as that's when the Arizona polling stations slam shut and counting begins of the in-person votes.

Like Pennsylvania and Nevada, Arizona was one of the last to declare it's results in the 2020 US Election. The state has an extremely long ballot which could delay votes being counted.

Wisconsin

Electoral College Votes: 10
Favourite: Kamala Harris

The Badger State has also been on the right side of history on the last two elections, backing the winner in 2016 and 2020. 

Donald Trump claimed that if his Republican party win in Wisconsin then they will "win the whole thing".

However, polls suggest it will be Kamala Harris who takes the victory, with Betfred offering the best odds of 4/6 whereas multiple bookies, including BoyleSports, are offering 11/8 on a Trump triumph.

When will the Wisconsin result be announced?

Following on from Arizon and Michigan, Wisconsin will also close it's polls at 2am GMT. 

Back in 2020, the count was completed early in the morning the day after Election Day. But like Pennsylvania, officials also cannot count mail or early in-person ballots until the day of the election itself, which could cause delays down the line.

Nevada

Electoral College Votes: 6
Favourite: Donald Trump

While this state has remained in the hands of the Democrats for the last several elections, there is momentum with Donald Trump that he could turn the Silver State red.

Trump had enjoyed a wide lead over Biden in earlier polls but since Harris took over the Democrat nomination when Biden stood down in July, the polls have closed up once again as both sides vie for a strong Latino vote.

Sky Bet are currently dishing out the best odds on Donald Trump at 2/3 with Betway holding the most desirable odds for Kamala Harris at 13/10

When will the Nevada result be announced?

Nevada is based in the west of the United States, meaning it's closing poll time will be much earlier in the morning for the UK viewers. 

Polls close at 10pm local time, 3am UK time. Nevada was one of the slowest to announce its results back in 2020 so we could be waiting a while to find out the outcome of those crucial six ECVs which could take either Trump or Harris over the finishing line.

Iowa

Electoral College Votes: 6
Favourite: Donald Trump

While this middle of America state has been a strong hold for the Republicans in the last two elections, the final Des Moines Register/ Medicom Iowa Poll before the 2024 election shows Harris with a 3-point lead over former President Donald Trump, the first time she's had the lead in the election cycle.

Barack Obama won the state back in 2012 but Trump defeated Clinton by nine percentage points and Biden eight in the last two. 

Any victory for Harris would be seen as a huge milestone on her path to victory but the bookmakers are not seeing it the same as the pollsters, with many still comfortably backing Trump to pick up the six ECVs on offer in the Hawkeye State.

When will the Iowa result be announced?

Much like in Pennsylvania, polls will close at 8pm local time (1am GMT), with the outcome expected to announced around 6am GMT.