Ireland votes to elect the 34th Dáil on Friday 29th November.
This Friday's Irish General Election will decide who will sit in the Dáil, the lower house of the Oireachtas (Ireland's parliament).
In the last century, the Irish parliament has been led by either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, who officially called the 2024 election at the start of this month (three months ahead of schedule) in a bid to capitalise on its dominant position in the polls.
The current government entered office in April of this year with Simon Harris, leader of Fine Gael, as Taoiseach (Prime Minister). The Tánaiste (UK equivalent of Deputy Prime Minister) is Micheál Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil.
BetMGM Offer - New customers get £40 in free bets from betting just £10 on the 2024 Irish General Election
BetMGM UK
Next Irish Prime Minister Odds
Micheál Martin is now the bookmakers' favourite to be Prime Minister after the Irish General Election at a best price of 13/25 on BetMGM (implied 66% chance).
This represents an almost complete U-turn since the election was officially called on 8th November, when Martin was given just over a 30% chance at odds of 9/4.
By comparison, Simon Harris was as short as 1/2 three weeks ago (67% chance) but is now rated just 33% likely to continue in the position at odds of 2/1.
Mary Lou McDonald, who has served as the leader of the opposition since June 2020, is the only other candidate given a greater than 10% chance at 7/1 (12.5% chance).
Fine Gael is likely going to need to rotate the position with Fianna Fáil as part of a coalition government as they have done over the last four years. As such, predicting the outcome of Martin vs Harris in the betting market becomes difficult.
Who will win the most seats in the Irish Election?
The Dáil currently consists of 160 members, each known as a Teachta Dála (TDs). However, the outcome of a 2023 review dictates that a total 174 TDs will be selected from the 2024 election (three to five TDs from 43 Dáil constituencies).
Fianna Fáil account for 35 of the current 160 TDs and are now as short as 1/2 with some bookmakers to win the most seats (8/15 best price on Sky Bet). Fine Gael (current 32 seats) range from 9/4 shortest to 5/2 with William Hill to win the most seats.
Mirroring the complete switch around in the Prime Minister odds, Fianna Fáil were 2/1 to win the most seats on 8th November, when Fine Gael were as short as 1/2.
William Hill
- Solid in-play betting service
- Cash-in option to help increase profitability
- Excellent reputation within the UK betting-industry
Who will be in power after Irish General Election?
The incumbent Prime Minister Simon Harris took office following the resignation of Leo Varadkar in April 2024. His appointment was part of a planned rotation in the coalition agreement between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.
It was the first time Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have participated in the same government.
A repeat of the exact same coalition forming the Next Irish Government is an outside 20/1 chance on Ladbrokes, whose odds suggest a Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Independents coalition is the favourite outcome at 9/4.
