Nigel Farage's position in the race to become the next Prime Minister is expected to strengthen after today's elections.
With voters across England heading to the polls today (May 1st), the next UK Prime Minister odds are under fresh scrutiny as we prepare to get an early verdict on Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government and a major test for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative leadership .
Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won a landslide in the July 2024 general election but has since seen its approval ratings dip following controversial policies like winter fuel payment cuts, perceived broken promises and fiscal missteps.
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election marks Labour’s first major test in government and could signal shifting momentum - especially with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, polling as high as 25% with some projections suggesting it could win 180 seats if an election were held today.
Having secured 14% of the vote and five seats in 2024, including Farage’s win in Clacton, Reform is keen to target and perform well in key contests such as Runcorn and Helsby to strengthen its narrative as a serious viable alternative to the current government.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives, now led by Kemi Badenoch, are defending roughly 600–700 of the 954 council seats up for grabs - mainly in traditional Tory areas like Kent, Cambridgeshire and Devon - last won during Boris Johnson’s 2021 post-vaccine peak. With only 121 MPs after their 2024 defeat, this is Badenoch’s first big electoral test.
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Next Prime Minister Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 3/1 | 25% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 6/1 | 14% |
| Wes Streeting | 10/1 | 9% |
| Robert Jenrick | 12/1 | 8% |
| Yvette Cooper | 14/1 | 7% |
Who is favourite to become the next Prime Minister?
Nigel Farage is currently the 3/1 favourite (25% implied chance) with bet365 to become the next UK Prime Minister, reflecting a remarkable rise in both personal popularity and political momentum.
Since securing 14% of the vote and five seats in the 2024 general election - including his own in Clacton -Farage’s Reform UK has surged in voting sentiment polls, at times matching or bettering Labour and the Conservatives with a 25% share of votes.
With the party now odds-on at 2/7 to win today’s Runcorn and Helsby by-election, a high-profile victory could further legitimise Farage’s position as a serious contender for Number 10.
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Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, priced at 6/1 (14% implied chance) with Paddy Power, faces a defining moment in her leadership of the Conservatives.
After inheriting a party with just 121 MPs following the 2024 general election, Badenoch’s first real test comes in today’s local elections, where the Tories are defending hundreds of seats in traditional strongholds like Kent and Devon.
A resilient showing could stabilise her leadership and elevate her prospects - but a poor performance may cast doubt on her long-term viability as a future Prime Minister.
Badenoch doesn’t hold out much hope for a positive result either, stating: “If you map that general election result of 2024 onto this coming May, then we don’t win the councils we won in 2021 - we lose almost every single one.” She has stressed that these elections “will be extremely difficult.”
This would be yet another set-back in Badenoch's efforts to consolidate the right and would only play into Farage's hands as he continues to appeal to disaffected Tory voters - over a third of 2019 Conservative voters now support Reform and this would only serve to help his attempts to cement Reform's status as the dominant right-wing force.
