Reform are leading the charge in Runcorn and Helsby in the first major electoral tests for the parties since last July’s general election.
It's all eyes on the UK politics betting market today as voters across the UK head back to the polling stations to have their say in local elections.
Around a third of voters in England will have the chance to vote in today's elections, with more than 1,600 seats contested in 23 councils across England, with six mayoral positions also up for grabs.
The 23 councils is made up mostly of 14 county councils: Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.
There are also eight unitary authorities - Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, County Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire and Wiltshire - as well as one metropolitan district, Doncaster.
Today's elections are considered a clear test of whether surging poll numbers for Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage (3/1 in the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer market), are translating to votes.
Disillusionment is thought to be a key driver in the public's thirst for change, which is expected to play out in the Cheshire seat of Runcorn and Helsby.
Runcorn By Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 4/11 | 73% |
| Labour | 11/4 | 27% |
| Conservatives | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Reform UK are currently the big favourites to win the Runcorn And Helsby By-election, rated close to 75% likely even at the best price available of 4/11 on Paddy Power.
The Cheshire seat was rated Labour’s 16th safest from 2024 when they won with a 52.9% vote share and a 14,696 majority. For Reform to win it requires a 17.4% swing.
A win for Reform UK would shatter Labour's hold on what had been seen as a safe "red wall" seat, exposing deep dissatisfaction with both the current government and main opposition.
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Reform Odds to Win the Next General Election
| Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 13/8 | 38% |
| Conservatives | 9/4 | 31% |
| Reform | 9/4 | 31% |
| Liberal Democrats | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Green | 750/1 | 0.13% |
Reform UK have been cut to a best price 9/4 on Boylesports (shortest price 11/8) to win the most seats at the next general election, reflecting their growing momentum and rising threat to the current government.
After finishing second to Labour in 89 constituencies at the 2024 general election and surging ahead of the Conservatives in national polling, Reform are increasingly seen as a serious force in British politics.
Their performance in the local elections today - where they have little to defend but hundreds of potential gains - could further underline their rise.
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