Who is favourite to win the Makerfield by-election?
The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 is being closely watched as more than a routine political contest. It has become a political test of national significance, bringing together questions about Labour’s internal direction, Reform UK’s growing electoral strength, and the role of high-profile political figures.
Triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, the seat, previously held comfortably by Labour, now sits at the centre of a far more volatile and unpredictable political environment.
The decision for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand for Labour has elevated the contest further, transforming what might have been a standard hold into a high-stakes referendum on both Labour leadership credibility and Reform’s ability to convert local election momentum into parliamentary success.
With Reform UK having made significant gains in recent council elections across the area, and Labour facing fluctuating support, Makerfield is widely viewed as a future indicator for shifting political allegiances in post-general-election Britain.
Makerfield By-Election Odds
| Candidate / Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Labour (Andy Burnham) | 4/11 |
| Reform UK | 3/1 |
| Restore Britain | 14/1 |
| Green Party | 500/1 |
| Conservative Party | 1000/1 |
Who is favourite to win the Makerfield By-Election?
Labour remain firm favourites in the market at 4/11 (William Hill), implying a strong expectation of victory for Andy Burnham.
Reform UK, however, are not priced as distant outsiders. At 3/1 (betfred), they are viewed as credible challengers. This reflects their recent surge in local elections across the wider Wigan area, where they have demonstrated an ability to convert protest sentiment into votes at scale.
Restore Britain, at 14/1 (AKBets), sit in a more ambiguous position. While not expected to win, they have generated notable short-term betting interest, suggesting some appetite among punters for disruption in what is otherwise a Labour-Reform dominated contest.
The Greens (500/1) and Conservatives (1000/1) are priced as peripheral players, with limited expectation of impact beyond vote share presence.
Overall, the odds point to a Labour hold, but not without acknowledging the structural challenge emerging from Reform’s local momentum.
Labour Odds to win Makerfield Election
Labour’s 4/11 odds suggest a high implied probability of retaining Makerfield, even under current political pressure. Andy Burnham’s candidacy is a significant factor in that assessment, given his established profile as Mayor of Greater Manchester.
However, Labour’s position is not without complications. Recent local election results across Wigan showed a notable decline in Labour support, with Reform making substantial gains in council seats and vote share. That shift has tightened the perceived margin and introduced greater uncertainty into what was previously considered a safe Labour constituency.
When is the Makerfield By-Election?
The Makerfield by-election will be held on 18 June 2026, following the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons in May 2026. The seat was formally vacated after Simons stepped down, triggering the parliamentary process that set the election date.
Who are the Makerfield By-Election Candidates?
The confirmed candidates for Makerfield are:
- Andy Burnham (Labour Party) – Mayor of Greater Manchester and former MP, returning to national electoral politics.
- Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) – Local plumber and previous parliamentary candidate in the constituency.
- Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain) – Local businesswoman and party candidate.
- Michael Winstanley (Conservative Party) – Former Mayor of Wigan with longstanding local ties.
- Sarah Wakefield (Green Party) – Standing following internal party candidate changes.
Full list of candidates:
• Andy Burnham, Labour Party
• Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party
• Robert Kenyon, Reform UK
• Sarah Wakefield, Green Party
• Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats
• Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain
• Alan 'Howlin' Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Robert Pownall, Independent (Protect The Wild)
• Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party
• John Alfred Dyer, Independent
• Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
• Paul Richard Gould, Independent
• Count Binface, Count Binface Party
• Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
