Following its victory at the Critics’ Choice Awards, there has been a major shake-up in the Oscars Best Picture betting markets.
Sean Baker’s film has seen a surge in betting support, with its odds being slashed from 4/1 to as short as 4/7, replacing The Brutalist as the new favourite to win the Best Picture at the Oscars. This shift represents a significant increase in implied probability, jumping from 20% to 63.6%.
It can be found at a best price of 8/11 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing this article.
Historical trends also suggest this could be a strong indicator of Oscars success—nine of the last 15 Best Picture winners at the Critics’ Choice Awards have gone on to win the Academy Award.
Since Friday night’s awards ceremony, Anora has attracted 60% of bets in the Oscars Best Picture market, a dramatic rise from just 7% in 2025 prior to the weekend.
Meanwhile, The Brutalist, which had been odds-on at 8/11 heading into the weekend, has now drifted to 15/8, placing it second in the market.
A similar trend has been observed in the Best Director category, with Anora’s Sean Baker now the favourite. His odds have shortened from 6/1 to 8/11, attracting 85% of bets since Friday.
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Oscars Best Picture Odds
| Best Picture | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | 8/11 | 58% |
| The Brutalist | 15/8 | 35% |
| Conclave | 16/1 | 6% |
| Emilia Perez | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Oscars Betting: Other Notable Oscars Market Movers
Best Actress – Demi Moore (The Substance) remains the 1/2 odds-on favourite, with 68% of bets backing her for the award.
Best International Feature Film – I’m Still Here continuing to gain support, with its odds being cut from 5/1 to 6/4 last week.
Best Film Editing – Anora has emerged as a strong contender in this category, attracting 76% of bets over the weekend, with odds shortening from 6/1 to 2/1.
Best Animated Short Film – Wander to Wonder has overtaken Beautiful Men as the market leader, with its odds being slashed from 5/1 to 1/1 over the weekend.
