Who is the favourite to win the Eurovision Semi-Final 1?
A total of 31 countries are bidding to secure a place in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 on Saturday 17th May.
The competition kicks off with Semi-Final 1 on Tuesday 13th May, live from St. Jakobshalle in Basel, Switzerland.
15 countries will compete for 10 qualification spots, while pre-qualified nations Italy, Spain and host Switzerland will perform and vote but not compete.
With the ‘Big Five’ - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom - plus reigning champions Switzerland already guaranteed a place in the Grand Final on Saturday 17th May, only 20 spots remain up for grabs across both semi-finals.
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Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Odds
| Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1/5 | 83% |
| Estonia | 9/1 | 10% |
| Netherlands | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Albania | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Cyprus | 50/1 | 2% |
Who is the favourite to win Eurovision Semi-Final 1?
Sweden head into Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2025 as the act to beat at odds of 1/5 (Sky Bet), represented by Finnish-Swedish comedy trio KAJ with their sauna-themed anthem “Bara Bada Bastu.”
Known for their offbeat humour and Nordic cultural nods, the group’s energetic epadunk track has become a viral hit and the most streamed Eurovision song on Spotfiy.
Their momentum has been reflected in the OGAE fan poll, where they topped the leaderboard with 421 points and the Eurovisionworld poll which they also topped - clear evidence of strong international fan support.
Sweden has an impressive semi-final track record, having failed to qualify only once since the format was introduced, and hasn’t missed a Grand Final since 2010.
Backed by a Eurovision legacy that includes seven titles, and four Semi-Final wins, Sweden will be hard to beat.
Sam Eaton has tipped them to win Eurovision 2025 in his tips article, check it out here.
Estonia’s chances of winning Semi-Final 1 at Eurovision 2025 hinge on Tommy Cash’s eccentric track “Espresso Macchiato”.
Positioned 12th in the running order - a slot often seen as advantageous - Estonia benefits from strong visibility in a competitive semi.
Since the introduction of the semi-final round in 2004, Estonia have failed to reach the final on 10 occasions and has reached the top 10 five times.
They are a best price of 9/1 with Unibet.
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Poland and Slovenia NOT to qualify for the final from semi-final 1 have been popular bets through oddschecker this week (both picks for Sam Eaton).
Slovenia have the second fewest votes in the EurovisionWorld poll and are fourth from the bottom in terms of betting volume, while Poland ranked 13th in both the EurovisionWorld poll and bets via oddschecker.
