We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Sunday's NFL matchups.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our positive EV tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are the Anytime Touchdown bets with the most promising projected payouts (or expected values) for the NFL 6pm Sunday games.
In this column last week, we successfully picked out three of five touchdown scorers.
Bet 1: Omarion Hampton - Anytime Touchdown vs Washington Commanders - 1pt - 5/6 with bet365 - Play no lower than 4/5
The rookie is coming off a breakout: 12 carries for 128 yards and a TD & 5/37 receiving in Week 4 (≈165 total yards), and he’s now the clear early-down/goal-line hammer in Greg Roman’s run-leaning scheme.
Washington just yielded 128 rushing yards to Atlanta last week and has been leaky to explosives, a profile that fits Hampton’s usage if L.A. sustains drives at SoFi.
With Najee Harris sidelined, the volume + red-zone role are there; one crease near the goal line is all you need.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 65.52%., so the 5/6 available with bet365 provides us with 20.1% of Positive Value.
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys
Bet 2: Garrett Wilson - Anytime Touchdown vs Dallas Cowboys - 1pt - 6/4 with BetMGM - Play no lower than 11/8
Wilson enters today at 27/311/3 through three games as the Jets’ featured finisher, and he gets a Dallas secondary missing starting S Malik Hooker (IR).
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The Cowboys have bled 309.3 opponent passing yards per game—among the worst in the league—so Wilson’s red-zone and vertical looks at MetLife stay live in a projected up-tempo/high-scoring spot.
If New York wins contested downs, Wilson’s target share plus Dallas’ coverage attrition make this a high-quality anytime touchdown scorer swing.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 49.81%, so the 6/4 available with BetMGM provides us with 24.53% of Positive Value.
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys
Bet 3 - George Pickens - Anytime Touchdown vs Dallas Cowboys - 1pt - 6/5 with SpreadEx - Play no lower than 11/10
Pickens has hit the ground running in Dallas: 21 receptions, 300 yards, 4 TDs in four games (t-3rd in the NFL for receiving TDs), and he’s fresh off a 134-yard, 2-TD eruption in Week 4.
He’s a listed starter opposite CeeDee Lamb, and today’s matchup at MetLife comes against a Jets defense that’s struggled early (≈30 points allowed per game, zero takeaways) — a setup that should sustain Dallas’s passing volume.
With the trade making him a focal outside target, current form + red-zone usage + a defense leaking points make Pickens a live anytime-TD play.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 55.53%, so the 6/5 available with BetMGM provides us with 27.72% of Positive Value.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos
Bet 4 - Dallas Goedert - Anytime Touchdown vs Denver Broncos - 1pt - 4/1 with Betfred - Play no lower than 3/1
Goedert has 3 TDs in his last two games (2 in Week 4, 1 in Week 3) and remains a schemed red-zone option.
Philadelphia’s offense has been historically clinical inside the 20—11 TDs on 11 red-zone trips through four weeks—so any trip deep boosts Goedert’s equity.
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At home vs. Denver, with attention pulled toward Barkley and the WRs, Goedert’s seam and goal-line usage keeps him squarely in the end-zone mix.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 34.99%, so the 4/1 available with Betfred provides us with a whopping 74.95% of Positive Value.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Bet 5 - Dalton Kincaid vs New England Patriots - 1pt - 13/5 with Betway - Play no lower than 9/4
Kincaid has 3 TDs in four games (Weeks 1, 3, 4) and remains a high-leverage piece near the paint for Buffalo’s unbeaten attack.
New England’s pass D has allowed ~256 passing yards per game and now heads to Orchard Park in prime time—an environment where Josh Allen’s red-zone passing volume typically spikes.
With Bills–Pats concentrated targets and Kincaid’s route rate in scoring areas, the anytime path is clean.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 34.29%, so the 13/5 available with Betway provides us with a whopping 23.44% of Positive Value.
