Boxing expert Peter Morris has one 2pt tip for Canelo Alvarez V Callum Smith on Sunday morning.
- Alvarez is at a best price of 2/9 to beat Smith.
- Most bookmakers are leaning towards Alvarez to win on points.
Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith
Boxing fans are being served up an absolute Christmas feast this year as we swiftly follow AJ v Pulev with a terrific bout in San Antonio Texas as Britain’s Callum Smith takes on the Mexican pound for pound star Canelo Alvarez. Whilst the big Liverpudlian Smith is a sizeable underdog (currently best priced at 4/1) there is no doubt that he poses a significant threat to the Mexican and this is a proper high-quality championship contest.
When looking to bet on this bout there are a few things to consider. First, the price of Smith to win at 4/1 does look a bit juicy. Yes, he didn’t look great in his last fight against Ryder (a bout he easily could have lost on the cards) and he is potentially drained a bit at super middleweight. However, at the time Smith was hunting for a big international championship fight and he may have overlooked Ryder (who is himself an underrated super middleweight). Smith’s performance against George Groves shows how impressive and devastating he can be. However, if you do want to back the big Liverpudlian it’s worth remembering that it’ll be extremely tough for him to beat Canelo by decision. If the fight is even remotely close, the Mexican gets the nod. This tipster is still angered by the first Canelo v Golovkin fight, where judging swung the bout in his favour and secured a draw when most observers felt the Kazakh won the fight. So if you are keen to back Smith, swerve the 4/1 winner market and get stuck into the group round betting, where you can back Smith to win a late stoppage (7-12) at 12/1 – as stopping the Mexican is surely his only route to victory.
However, there are plenty of bets out there for Canelo backers that look really good value as well. The bookies fancy Canelo to win via a stoppage, with that method of victory priced at 10/11. If you do want to back Canelo to stop Smith, then take the longer priced 23/10 that is available for Canelo to stop Smith in rounds 7-12, which looks a solid play. It would take a very, very impressive performance from the Mexican to blast out the bigger man inside 6 rounds. In fact, there is a lot to like about Smith’s attributes in this fight: he has the height and reach advantages but is also a very good inside fighter, with excellent bent arm shots that could trouble Canelo when he does come inside. Furthermore, Canelo isn’t really a natural super middle. His best weight and best performances have come at middleweight. If Smith is able to make the weight healthily without draining himself too much, he could have the advantage in terms of strength.
Therefore, the price for Canelo to win a decision is attractive at 15/8: Smith will be hard to bully on the inside and if he proves to be durable enough, he could make this a very competitive fight; it could even be quite cagey in the first half of the fight, with both fighters respecting each other’s power. With Canelo likely to have the judges on his side, the 15/8 for him to win over the full distance looks like good value.
