Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder Prediction, Results & Betting Tips

Barely has the dust settled on Oleksandr Usyk dethroning Anthony Joshua in North London before we are served up another British heavyweight defending a world title. Tyson Fury is defending his WBC belt against Alabama native Deontay Wilder in Las Vegas. This is the third fight between the pair, with the first resulting in a questionable draw and then second Fury winning in emphatic fashion back in February 2020, knocking Wilder down twice before his corner called time in the 7th round. 

While Tyson Fury’s victory in February was not a shock, the manner of it was certainly surprising. For much of his career Fury has boxed in an awkward if not exciting fashion. He’s very slippery, not unaccustomed to using his size to tie up his opponents and generally considered to be a skilful bexor before powerful or exciting. It was therefore unexpected to see him aggressively step to the big punching American and essentially pick him apart. Fury’s use of his quick jab and feints completely unsettled the far less skilful American and busted him up over the course of 7 rounds.

Frankly it is hard to see a route to victory for Deontay Wilder in this third fight. He does possess the true equaliser in the form of a devastating right hand but Tyson Fury has shared the 18 rounds with Wilder and shown how hard he is to hit clean. When he was hit clean in the second fight he seemed more able to handle the power. The outright winner markets probably price the two fighters closer than they should be and a lot of that is down to Wilder’s single punch power. Tyson Fury’s best price is 5/11 with SBK and Wilder’s 13/5 with SportNation. Whilst Wilder is probably shorter than he warrants, Fury’s outright price is still not a hugely attractive betting prospect. However, the books generally favour Wilder a tad more than expected and that does present a betting angle for Fury. The best play is to look beyond the outright winner markets and back Fury for method or group rounds. 

Fury to win via a stoppage is best price 10/11 and a points win is a chunkier 3/1, which could offer a bit of value. Fury is a very unpredictable character; he is the sort of fighter who might decide to toy with his opponent or switch up his game plan from the last fight and just cruise to a decision. However, Fury’s trainer Sugar Hill Steward has already said that Fury is going to come into the ring around the 290lbs mark, almost 20lbs heavier than his previous fight with Wilder. That would suggest they are not looking at a slick boxing performance but instead want to replicate the last fight, boxing aggressively on the front foot. The group round betting for Fury has both rnds 1-6 and 7-12 priced the same at 11/4. It would not be shocking to see Fury make even swifter work of Wilder this time round, so the 11/4 on the first half of the fight looks like a reasonable bet. 

If the rounds betting isn’t your fancy, William Hill have priced up a request-a-bet for Deontay Wilder to be knocked down 2 or more times at 3/1. This also looks like a great play: whilst Fury is showing a new aggressive style, he still isn’t a big one punch KO artist. He’s much more likely to wear down Wilder, hurting him multiple times and with Wilder’s poor balance and footwork it is hard to believe he won’t be on the canvas multiple times.