Newcastle v Fulham: Dan Burn Over 1.5 Fouls 

With Newcastle still missing several regulars, Dan Burn looks set to continue filling in at left back, a role that’s exposed him repeatedly in recent weeks. Benfica exploited that weakness last time out, forcing Burn into three fouls as he struggled to contain their winger. He’s now played five matches in that position, committing 2+ fouls in four of them and even hitting 3+ twice.

He should start there again today, likely facing Fulham’s Harry Wilson, the most fouled player in their predicted XI and someone who loves to drive at his marker. Given the matchup and Burn’s recent foul trend, the over 1.5 line at 2.50 looks a solid value angle.

Dan Burn Over 1.5 Fouls @ 2.75 Bteway, 2.6 Virginbet/BetMGM, 2.62 Ladbrokes, Coral, 2.4 Paddy (1.25u)

Brighton v Man United: Bryan Mbeumo Over 2.5 Shots 

Mbeumo has been one of United’s standout signings this season, seamlessly carrying over his Brentford form. He’s cleared the 2.5 shot line in six of nine games, and the quality of opposition makes that even more impressive,  Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal in that mix and those sides rank among the league’s best for limiting shots, yet Mbeumo still found space and confidence to pull the trigger.

Brighton’s open style and defensive gaps should suit him perfectly. At 2.45, this looks solid value for a player who continues to test goalkeepers regardless of opponent.

Bryan Mbeumo Over 2.5 Shots @ 2.45 10Bet, 2.37 Bet365, 2.25 Ladbrokes, Coral, 1.91 Sky (1.5u)

Aston Villa v Man City: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer 

Aston Villa v Man City: Haaland To Score a Brace 

The Norwegian striker remains a machine in front of goal, scoring in 12 consecutive matches for club and country. He’s averaging a remarkable 1.02 expected goals per 90 minutes this season, which underlines just how consistently he finds high quality chances which may very well be a result of City playing more direct this season.

Haaland has already hit 15 goals in 11 games this season and has scored in each of his last five Premier League away appearances. He’s also netted five of City’s seven away league goals this campaign, proof that wherever Pep Guardiola’s side travel, Haaland tends to be the difference.

At 1.83, the anytime price still looks fair value for a striker in relentless form.

I’m also taking some stake on the Brace. He’s managed five braces this season already, so it’s got to be done.

Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer @ 1.83 Bet365 and most firms (1u)

Haaland To Score a Brace @ 4.5-5.25 (0.5u)

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: Tyler Adams Over 0.5 Shots

Adams has registered at least one shot in six of his eight starts this season, averaging 0.78 per 90 minutes. One of those blanks came against Liverpool, where he was understandably pinned back and given little freedom to break forward.

With Bournemouth heavy home favourites here, trading well below evens to win, the setup should allow Adams more licence to push into advanced positions. Nottingham Forest also concede 10.2% more shots than the league average (13 per game versus 11.8), further boosting his chances of testing the keeper.

At even money, Adams to record a single shot looks a nice angle to be backing in a game where Bournemouth are expected to take control of this game.

Tyler Adams Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.00 Skybet, ladbrokes, coral, 1.91 paddy, 1.83 Bet365 (1.25u)