EV Eagle's Five Betting Tips for Saturday's Premier League

The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!

In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.

In today's article, the Eagle has picked out the five best EV bets for Saturday's football. 

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Jae-Sung Lee - Over 1.5 Shots vs Hoffenheim - 2pts LOST

Mason Greenwood - Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Nice - 1.25pts WON @ 26/25

Liam Lindsay - To Be Shown a Card vs Blackburn - 0.5pts LOST

Isaiah Collier - Over 8.5 Points vs Oklahoma City - 1.5pts LOST

Jakob Poeltl - Under 10.5 Rebounds vs Washington - 1.5pts WON @ 8/11

Running P+L: -0.40

Tip 1: Marshall Munetsi – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Crystal Palace – 1pt

10/11 best price available with 10Bet.

Munetsi has been remarkably consistent this season, producing 3,2,3,2,3,2,1,2 tackles when starting in the Premier League and totaling 20 tackles across 11 matches. Recent performances include three tackles at Fulham, two vs Burnley, three at Sunderland, and two at home to Brighton, showing steady defensive output regardless of position. Wolves’ recent struggles at home, conceding 14 goals in their last five, means extended periods defending, increasing Munetsi’s tackle opportunities.

AI rates this selection at 71% probability, compared to 52% implied by the odds, giving a 35% expected value.

Tip 2: Morgan Gibbs-White – 2+ Shots vs Liverpool – 1.5pt

11/8 best price available with Bet365.

Gibbs-White has recorded 2 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 games (2,1,2,2,2,4,2,2,2,2) and has hit this line against United, Chelsea, and Newcastle. Liverpool have been leaking shots recently, conceding 14,8,10,15,17,4,12,12 in their last matches, giving Forest’s most consistent shooter a strong chance to reach 2+ shots again.

Tip 3: Yankuba Minteh – Over 1.5 Shots vs Brentford – 1.25pts

3/4 best price available with BetMGM.

Minteh averages 1.76 shots per 90, hitting over 1.5 shots in 11 of his appearances this season (2,1,2,1,2,1,2,3,2,1,1).

Brentford concede the 8th most shots in the Premier League and have struggled on the road, making this a strong opportunity for Minteh to continue his attacking output.

AI probability: 73%, odds probability: 57%, 30% expected value.

Tip 4: Kenny Tete – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Sunderland – 1pt

11/10 best price available with 10Bet.

Tete has recorded 5,1,4,3,3,4,3,3,4 tackles over his last nine games and sits in the 95th percentile for ground duel success rate among Premier League right-backs. With 2.25 tackles won per 90, his defensive consistency makes 2.5 tackles a realistic target despite limited attacking involvement.

AI probability: 53%, odds probability: 47%, expected value: 11%.

Tip 5: Erling Haaland – Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Newcastle – 1.5pts

17/20 best price available with BetMGM.

Haaland has been prolific this season, recording 2,3,4,3,3,4,1,3,3,2 shots on target in his last 10 matches and scoring 19 goals for City. Newcastle are struggling defensively, losing their last two games to Brentford and West Ham and conceding three each time, which boosts Haaland’s chances to hit 1.5 shots on target again. Newcastle will be without Dan Burn at the back after his red card at Brentford earned him a suspension.

AI probability: 56%, odds probability: 53%, expected value: 5%.

Accumulator - 0.75 Points

Erling Haaland – Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Morgan Gibbs-White – 2+ Shots

Marshall Munetsi – Over 1.5 Tackles

Best price 5.82/1 with 10Bet.