EV Eagle's Five Free Football Tips for Monday

The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!

In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.

In today's article, the Eagle has picked out the five best EV bets for Monday's football. 

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:
Declan Rice - 2+ Tackles - 1.5pts - 19/20 - Won
Marco Grull – Over 1.5 Shots vs RB Leipzig – 1pt - 21/20 - Won
Julian Alvarez – Over 2.5 Shots vs Getafe – 1pt - 17/20 - Lost
Antonio Nusa – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Werder Bremen – 1pt - 4/5 - Won
Youssouf Fofana – Over 0.5 Shot on Target vs Inter Milan – 1pt - 14/5 - Won
Treble - 8.7/1 - 0.5pts - Won

Running P+L: +21.8pts

Tip 1: Saul Coco - Over 0.5 Shots vs Como - 1.25pts

Best odds of 11/8 available with 10Bet. As short as 4/9 elsewhere.

Torino centre-back Saul Coco has been in hot shooting form recently, recording at least one shot in six of his previous seven starts. 

10Bet have him priced up at over even money at the time of publishing, which strikes us a value play on this player prop. 

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 64%, so the odds of 11/8 with 10Bet when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.

We would recommend playing this bet no shorter than odds of 4/5. 

Tip 2: Pol Lozano - Over 0.5 Shots vs Sevilla - 2pts

Best odds of 8/11 with Sky Bet. As short as 1/4 elsewhere.

After not recording one shot in his opening seven games for Espanyol, Pol Lozano has had at least one in four of his previous six appearances, and 2+ in two of his previous three.

He recorded one shot in this fixture last season, and Sevilla are conceding an xG of 12.53 away from home (fifth highest in La Liga).

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79%, so the odds of 8/11 with Sky Bet when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 36% on this play.

We would recommend playing this bet no lower than 4/6

Tip 3: Espanyol vs Sevilla - Over 2.5 Match Goals - 1pt

Best odds of 6/5 with William Hill.

We are getting over evens on over 2.5 goals in Monday's La Liga match despite this goal tally being hit multiple times in recent matches for both sides.

Espanyol last five home matches: 5,4,3,1,2
Sevilla last five matches: 5,4,3,3,1

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league for goals conceded and the top half for goals scored, so backing the over looks a smart play at the odds for this one. 

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 64%, so the odds of 6/5 with William Hill when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 38% on this play.

Tip 4: Jayden Addai - Over 1.5 Shots vs Torino - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 with BetMGM. As short as 1/12 elsewhere. 

Como's Jayden Addai has seen a sharp increase in minutes over the past three games, starting all three and playing 74+ minutes in each (after only starting 1 in 4 before that). 

Despite not reaching the 2+ shots mark in those matches, Monday's game looks a good opportunity to hit this over with Torino conceded 14.8 shots per game (3rd highest in Serie A). 

We would recommend playing this bet no lower than 4/5. 

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 67%, so the odds of 11/10 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 46% on this play.

Tip 5: Bruno Fernandes - Anytime Goalscorer vs Everton - 0.75pts

Best odds of 3/1 available with Coral / Ladbrokes. As short as 7/4 elsewhere.

Despite moving into a deeper midfield role this season, Bruno Fernandes has found the back of the net of 2/5 home starts in the Premier League for Man United. 

The Portugese international is coming off a hat-trick performance in the international break and remains on penalties for United (Everton have conceded two already this season). 

Additionally, Fernandes is contuining to get his shots off at home, having 3+ shots in 4/5 home league appearances, and 2+ shots on target in 2/5 at home. 

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 32%, so the odds of 3/1 with Coral / Ladbrokes when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 27% on this play.