Two winners for the EV Eagle yesterday including an 11/8 bet of the day. Check out their five tips for Wednesday's Premier League.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five best EV bets for Wednesday's Premier League matches.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Running P+L: +6.06pts
Tip 1: Trai Hume - Over 0.5 Fouls Committed vs Liverpool - 1.25pts
Best odds of 4/5 with betway when publishing. As short as 1/9 elsewhere.
Trai Hume should come up against Liverpool's Cody Gakpo tonight who has been fouled seven times across his last four starts for club and country.
Hume has now committed one foul in seven of his past nine apperances and looks primed to commit another foul in Wednesday's match.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 75%, so the odds of 4/5 with betway when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 35% on this play.
Liverpool vs Sunderland
Tip 2: Nordi Mukiele - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Liverpool - 1pt
Best odds of 10/11 with Boyle Sports when publishing. As short as 2/11 elsewhere.
Sunderland defender Nordi Mukiele has had over 1.5 tackles in 8/11 Premier League starts this season and has had 11 across his last three.
With Liverpool projected to have a large share of possession tonight, Mukiele should have plenty of opportunities to get hit this tackle count again.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69%, so the odds of 10/11 with BoyleSports when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 32% on this play.
Burnley vs Crystal Palace
Tip 3: Daniel Munoz - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed vs Burnley - 1.5pts
Best odds of 6/4 with bet365 when publishing.
Crystal Palace wing-back Daniel Munoz has already hit the 2+ foul line on 11 occasions this season, including in both of his last two starts.
Midnite
In fact, he's hit this line in 70% of away starts for Palace this campaign and could come up against Jaidon Anthony who is fouled 1.2 times per game this season.
The price of 6/4 available with bet365 when publishing seems and attractive prospect for a player who loves getting stuck in.
Leeds vs Chelsea
Tip 4: Marc Cucurella - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed vs Leeds - 1pt
Best odds of 29/20 with Coral / Ladbrokes.
Similar to Munoz, Marc Cucurella has regularly hit this foul line for Chelsea this season, on 13 occasions to be exact.
Tonight he could come up against a mix of Brenden Aaronson and Daniel James, who are fouled a combined 2.3 times per game this season.
With eight fouls in his last two appearances, we are Cucurella to continue his fouling streak at Elland Road.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 58%, so the odds of 29/20 with Ladbrokes when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.
Leeds vs Chelsea
Tip 5: Ethan Ampadu - To Be Shown a Card - 0.5pts
Best odds of 17/5 with SpreadEx when publishing.
Welsh international Ethan Ampadu comes up against his academy team tonight when Leeds face Chelsea.
Ampadu is on a run of being carded three times in his past five appearances and tonight comes up against a Chelsea midfield of Enzo/Santos/Palmer who are fouled 2.2p/g between them this season.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 34%, so the odds of 17/5 with SpreadEx when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 51% on this play.
EV Eagle Cross-Match Treble:
Daniel Munoz 1+ Foul
Marc Cucururella 1+ Foul
Trai Hume 1+ Foul
Best price of 1.99/1 with betway when publishing. 1.5pt stake advised.
