Matthew O’Regan has picked out his best betting angles across the three EFL leagues ahead of the final-day frenzy.
Championship
Tractor Boys Ploughing To The Premier League?
When Cyle Larin fired Southampton into the lead after 80 minutes midweek, we looked set four a four-way battle for second place on the final day of the season. However, a late Jack Clarke equaliser means Southampton must settle for the playoffs, leaving Middlesbrough, Millwall and Ipswich to fight it out.
Ipswich occupy second place, one point ahead of Millwall and two ahead of Middlesbrough. The Tractor Boys have a +17 better goal difference than the Lions, so Alex Neil’s side go into the final day home tie against Oxford knowing only a win is enough should Ipswich slip up at home to QPR.
Middlesbrough need to better Millwall’s result, and hope Ipswich lose, while also winning away at Wrexham themselves. However, there is a (very unlikely) scenario in which Ipswich can draw and Kim Hellborg’s side can still go up – they have to beat Wrexham by six goals.
With QPR having nothing to play for, Ipswich SHOULD emerge victorious and return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
Tigers, Dragons and Rams Fight To The Death
Wrexham and Hull both losing on the penultimate weekend of the season opened the door ajar for Derby who triumphed 2-3 at Loftus Road thanks to a late screamer from Jaydon Banel.
Heading into the final day, Wrexham are sixth with 70 points (+4 GD), Hull seventh with 70 points (+3GD) and Derby 8th with 69 (+9). The Red Dragons host promotion chasing Boro, Hull host a resurgent Norwich, while Derby host a Sheffield United side who have been on the beach for months.
For The Rams, the permutations are clear – they must beat Norwich and hope the two above them fail to win. If both Hull and Wrexham lose and Derby draw, Derby qualify through goal difference, but John Eustace will be going for the jugular.
With Wrexham and Hull only separated by one goal difference, it could be a straight shoot out based on goals – however, both have harder fixtures than Derby – who I think sneak into the final playoff spot.
Best Bet: Derby Top Six Finish - 7/2
League One
All To Play For In League One Playoffs
While Lincoln and Cardiff were promoted at a canter and Bolton can only finish as low as fifth, five teams will be battling it out for the remaining three playoff places.
The Table:
- 3) Bolton – 75 points + 19 GD
- 4) Stockport County – 74 points + 11 GD
- 5) Bradford – 74 points + 6GD
- 6) Stevenage – 72 points + 2GD
- 7) Luton – 71 points + 11GD
- 8) Plymouth – 70 points + 11GD
The Permutations
Instead of confusing you with all the permutations I’ll keep it simple with a list.
- Bolton can finish 3rd, 4th or 5th.
- Stockport County can finish 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th.
- Bradford can finish 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th or 8th.
- Stevenage can finish 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th.
- Luton can finish 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, or 8th.
- Plymouth can finish 6th, 7th or 8th.
The Fixtures
- Barnsley vs Stockport County
- Bolton vs Luton
- Exeter vs Bradford
- Northampton vs Plymouth
- Stevenage vs Wigan
The Verdict
Stockport just need a draw to secure a place in the playoffs against a Barnsley side on the beach. The hosts have won just four from their last 14 – coming against teams placed 20th or below. Stockport win
Luton come into this game in great form, unbeaten in 11 in all competitions, winning six of the last seven. Bolton will want to finish as high as possible for second leg home advantage so will be well up for it. They have also lost just once at home all season, meaning Luton may just fall short of a top six spot.
Exeter are scrapping for their lives in the bottom four and must win to stand any chance of survival. St James Park will be packed and the atmosphere will be boisterous. The Grecians arrested a run of 15 games without a win by beating Doncaster 3-0. Since then, they have had a dramatic, impressive 3-3 draw with Stockport sandwiched in between away points at Plymouth and Burton.
Bradford also just need a point to make the playoffs- something they have achieved in their last three. The Bantams are poor on the road picking up just 24 points from 22 so the pressure is on Gary Alexander’s side. However, they should have enough for a point to scrape into the playoffs and in turn, send Exeter down to League Two.
Northampton are rooted to the bottom of the table and the whole atmosphere around the club is toxic. The Cobblers have lost ten in a row and are now 15 without a win. Plymouth are the third best away side in the league and only promoted Lincoln and Cardiff have taken more points than Argyle over the last 30 so momentum is firmly on their side. They should stroll to a comfortable victory – but will that be enough?
With Plymouth more than likely to win, Stevenage know they must win at home to Wigan to make the top six against all odds. Alex Revell’s side are extremely low margin – especially at home, conceding just 13 and scoring 26 in 22. Wigan come into this in improved form under Gary Caldwell, losing just two of their last ten. With just three away wins all the season, The Latics struggle on the road. However, they know how to frustrate teams and rank very similarly to Stevenage in the underlying metrics. Boro are more suited to being the underdog and may struggle to break down the visitors with the onus on them.
Best Bets: Plymouth Top Six Finish -17/4
Plymouth Promotion - 16/1
betkwiff
League Two
Winner Takes All At The County Ground
While I covered the League Two relegation battle in another article but the playoff battle at the County Ground is equally as big.
Chesterfield have the upper hand, sat seventh in the league one point ahead of their hosts who will go all guns blazing for the victory. Things have gone a bit pear-shaped for the hosts who have won just one of their last six while losing 4-0 and 3-0 in their last two away games and conceding a 92nd minute goal to draw to Accrington last time out at home.
Chesterfield are seven unbeaten and have become hard to break down, conceding just three times in this run. No side has drawn more than the Spireites (16) this campaign, but their strong posse of January signings have allowed them to turn one point into three on multiple occasions.
Best Bet:
In a six-pointer for both teams, expect it to be frantic in both boxes with one of the teams always needing to chase. Swindon games average the second highest corners in the league (11.13) while Chesterfield rank fifth (10.27).
Over 10 Corners @11/10
