The EV Eagle picked out 3 winners from 4 bets in Wednesday's UCL column. Check out their Europa League tips for Thursday.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best Positive EV bets from Wedneday night's Europa League action.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results:
Warren Zaïre-Emery – Over 0.5 Shots vs Athletic Bilbao – 1pt @87/100 - WON
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Over 1.5 Fouls vs PSG – 1pt @ 23/20 - WON
Nicolas Pépé – Over 0.5 Fouls vs FC Copenhagen – 1pt @5/6 - LOST
Tijjani Reijnders – Over 1.5 Shots vs Real Madrid – 1pt VOID
Giovanni Di Lorenzo – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Benfica – 1.5pt @ 11/10 WON
Accumulator - 0.5 Points LOST
Running P/L: -0.17pts
Tip 1: David Miculescu - Over 1.5 Shots vs Feyenoord - 1.25pts
Best odds available of 26/25 with BetMGM. As short as 3/10 elsewhere.
In his last nine matches, David Miculescu has had 2+ shots on seven occasions, with one of those games he missed out being a 2-1 loss to Serie A side Bologna.
His side host Feyenoord on Thursday with both teams desperate for a win to make the Europa League play-off spots.
Feyenoord are averaging over 10 shots conceded across their last two Europa League matches and we are backing Miculescu to make it 11/14 starts this season with 2+ shots attempted.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79%, so the odds of 26/25 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 61% on this play.
Tip 2: Jamie Leweling - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs M Tel Aviv - 1.25pts
Best odds of 3/4 with BetMGM. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Before his side's 2-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich on the weekend, Jamie Leweling had enjoyed a run of five straight matches with a shot on target.
Included in that run was a two goal/four shot on target haul away to Go Ahead Eagles in Stuttgart's previous Europa League match.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have conceded seven shots on target in both their previous two Europa League matches so Leweling should get plenty of opportunities to hit the target should he start on Thursday.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 76%, so the odds of 3/4 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 33% on this play.
Tip 3: Riccardo Orsolini - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Celta Vigo - 1pt
Best odds of 22/25 with BetMGM. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Bologna's Riccardo Orsolini has had four shots on target in his last three appearances, including three and a goal last time out in the Europa League against RB Salzburg.
The winger has had at least one shot on target in 11/14 starts for Bologna this season and comes up against a Celta Vigo side who have conceded shots on target to wingers in both Europa League home matches.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 72%, so the odds of 22/25 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 36% on this play.
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Tip 4: Matias Soule - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Celtic - 1.5pts
Best odds of 17/20 with BetMGM. As short as 3/10 elsewhere.
Roma's Matias Soule has a stellar shot on target record so far this season with 16 shots on targets in 17 starts for his club.
In the Europa League that record is even more attractive with a shot on target in all five matches so far, including two away at Celtic's city rivals, Rangers.
Given he starts and gets his usual 60/65+ minutes, this bet is trending in a positive direction ahead of Roma's trip to Celtic Park.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70%, so the odds of 17/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 31% on this play.
Tip 5: Zeki Celik - Over 0.5 Shots vs Celtic - 1.25pts
Best odds of 1/1 with William Hill. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Zeki Celik shots wouldn't be your first prop on your bingo card for Celtic vs Roma but the Turkish wing-backs recent numbers tell otherwise.
Celik has had at least one shot in 11 of his last 12 starts, the one miss being for Turkey at home to Bulgaria (played 60 mins).
For Roma, you have to go back to mid-October for the last time Celik didn't record a shot attempt, and in that game he started centre-back and played 65 minutes.
Celtic have conceded 38 shots across their past two Europa League matches, so you have to think the opportunities will be there for Celik to record at least one on Thursday.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 62%, so the odds of 1/1 with William Hill when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.
