Tom Love has one tip for tonight's game between Brighton and Newcastle
Brighton to win and both teams to score
Both these were in danger of the drop and this did look like possibly massive game a few months ago but both have managed to get out of it and it’s now a game with nothing riding on it.
You’d have expected a tight and trappy affair but with little on the line, we can hope for an entertaining game. Since Steve Bruce reverted to a back four, the magpies have seen a real upturn in attacking process and the goals have come with that. Dwight Gayle has come in and been a threat in the box and there’s a decent array of options now for Bruce at the top of the pitch.
There is a massive injury crisis at centre half for the toon army with Jamal Lascelles, Florian Lejeune, Fabian Schar and Ciaran Clark all struggling for fitness. They’ve even asked the relevant authorities if youngster Kelland Watts can play here with Federico Fernandez the only fit senior centre-halves.
Therefore the Seagulls will be eager to test the makeshift backline. Neal Maupay has been decent this season and there’s quality from the likes of Leandro Trossard and Aaron Mooy in the supporting cast. Underlying performance data notes that Brighton should be comfortably mid-table and can find themselves a tad unfortunate to be as low as they are. Newcastle overall have been poor on the shot metrics so the 5/6 quotes on the hosts here looks fair.
I’m going to chance a bigger price though and plump for Brighton to win and both teams to score and a chunky 10/3 with a 1 point play. Although Newcastle’s data overall this season isn’t great, since they went to a back 4 they’ve had much more verve in attacking areas and with the likes of Gayle, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron they do have a counter-attacking threat.
It’s always one to be wary of punting on games with little on the line so my thought process is to stake a little less and chance bigger prices.
