Oli Nixon names his three best bets for the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
The new Premier League season is upon us after a long summer without proper football and what better way to enjoy it than with some stats-based winners on the best value bets of the opening weekend? Here’s my three favourite bets for the opening weekend.
Aston Villa to Beat Newcastle & Both Teams to Score – 29/10 – William Hill
The teams who finished last season in fifth and sixth place, only separated by goal difference have had contrasting transfer windows.
Turnover at Villa Park has been minimal with only loanees Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Axel Disasi returning to their parent clubs and no first-team arrivals meaning that Unai Emery has a consistent squad that he’s had so much success with in the past few seasons.
Newcastle meanwhile, have resembled a footballing soap opera with multiple rejections from potential signings and star player Alexander Isak training alone as he tries to force a move to Liverpool.
Bet365
- Slick, clean interface
- Full suite of safer gambling options including profit/loss
- Market leading all customer offers across all sports
The feeling around the clubs could not be more different and having beaten the Toon Army 4-1 back in April, Aston Villa should be favourites to win this game. Throw in the fact that they’ve won their last nine in a row on home soil and you can see why we’re backing them for victory.
In terms of both teams getting on the scoresheet, the past six meetings between these sides have produced 25 goals with both finding the back of the net in three of the last four.
Both sides have netted in 12 of Villa’s last 15 home league games, of which this bet would have landed in six whereas for Newcastle’s trips on the road, both teams scored in 58% of matches last season and whilst they’ve lost plenty of firepower without Isak, the likes of Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga are good enough to cause problems.
Man United vs Arsenal
Amad Diallo Over 1.5 Fouls for Man Utd vs Arsenal – 9/4 – bet365
Whilst it’s not quite the days of ‘Pizzagate’ or Keane vs Vieira, Man Utd vs Arsenal will always be an interesting match-up and for it to be thrown up on opening weekend only increases the intrigue. All over the park there are good battles; however, one that should be particularly spicy is the clash between Amad Diallo and Myles Lewis-Skelly down United’s right had side.
Lewis-Skelly burst onto the scene last season and quickly became one of the most fouled players in the Premier League, drawing 3.09 fouls per 90.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
So consistent is the left back for forcing infringements that opposition right sided attackers have become an auto-bet for fouls each week. However, with Ruben Amorim playing without wingers, Amad Diallo looks the most likely player to draw the attention of the officials.
Due to Amorim’s system, Amad has had to adapt his attacking tendencies to a wing back position which has increased his defensive output.
The Ivorian committed 0.99 fouls per 90 last season which is healthy enough, although he didn’t start in any of the three games against Arsenal last season. Lewis-Skelly himself only started the FA Cup tie, in which he forced wing back Mazraoui into three fouls and so all the data suggests the price on offer for Diallo is a generous one.
Tottenham vs Burnley
Cristian Romero to Score Anytime for Tottenham vs Burnley – 10/1 – Paddy Power/Sky Bet
Fresh off another ‘Spursy’ heartbreak in midweek in the UEFA Super Cup, Tottenham will take the positives from their first competitive performance under Thomas Frank where they were the better side against PSG and looked far more defensively solid than under his predecessor.
Something which particularly caught the eye was how dangerous Spurs were from set pieces, scoring twice from such situations and creating chances at will for their centre back trio from corners, free-kicks and Kevin Danso’s long throw.
Key to their set play threat was newly appointed captain Cristian Romero who looks well placed to at least match his return of five goals for Spurs in 2023/2024 under his new boss.
He was the regular target for first contact from all restarts and in particular, from wide free-kicks, the routines were centred around getting the Argentine free at the back post as they did so well for his goal. He averaged over a shot per 90 last season and with set pieces clearly a priority for his new manager, we can expect this number to increase.
Opponents Burnley are widely expected to struggle; however, they arrive in the top tier having conceded just 16 goals in the Championship last season – 14 less than the next best record of all-time in the division. Therefore, we can expect them to be tough to break down and set pieces may be the best route to victory for Spurs.
38% of the goals that Scott Parker’s side conceded last season came from set plays and with them having lost James Trafford and Egan-Riley from that solid back line, it may just be a weakness that the London club can target.
