Niall Lyons looks at the likeliest players to land their first major victory next week in the Masters 2023 at Augusta.
Masters 2023 - Winner
The WGC Match Play gave us plenty of clues as to who may fight out the first major next week at Augusta National and we have only one more week of evidence to consider before placing our bets.
Cameron Young further enhanced his case for selection with a fine display of golf in Austin while Sam Burns showed once again why he can be relied upon when in contention. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy ran out of steam a little but both look that bit stronger than Jon Rahm heading to Georgia.
How important is previous major form?
Form and trends undoubtedly plays a role when narrowing down major fields but one element that is often overlooked is previous major form, and in particular the major immediately before. Below I have listed the major winners since 2020, their previous four major finishes, and their major career best both prior to victory.
| Major Winner | Four Previous Major Finishes Prior to victory | Major Career Best Prior to Major win |
|---|---|---|
| C.Smith 2022 Open | MC-13-3-33 | Runner up 2020 Masters |
| M.Fitzpatrick 2022 US Open | 5-14-26-55 | 5th PGA 2022 |
| J.Thomas 2022 PGA | 8-40-19-MC | Winner 2017 PGA |
| S.Scheffler 2022 Masters | 8-7-8-18 | 4th 2020 PGA |
| C.Morikawa 2021 Open | 4-8-18-44 | Winner 2020 PGA |
| J.Rahm 2021 US Open | 8-5-7-23 | 3rd 2019 US Open |
| P.Mickelson 2021 PGA | 21-55-MC-71 | Multiple Major wins |
| H.Matsuyama 2021 Masters | 13-17-22-MC | Runner up 2017 US Open |
| D.Johnson 2020 Masters | 6-2-51-35 | Winner 2016 US Open |
| C.Morikawa 2020 PGA | 35 | 35th 2019 US Open (1st major) |
| B.DeChambeau 2020 US Open | 4-MC-35-MC | 4th 2020 PGA |
What is evident is that a previous major top five is all but essential while a solid effort in the most recent major boosts your chances even further. Cameron Smith won the Open following a missed cut at the US Open and is the only golfer there listed to have done so.
Who finished in the top 10 at the most recent major?
Seven of the last 11 major winners since 2020 have posted a top 10 finish in the major prior to their victory whilst a further two managed 13th and 21st. Mickelson was considered a fair surprise at Kiawah Island, but even he showed signs at his beloved Augusta a couple of months beforehand.
The most recent result looks highly important so let's analyse the top 10 from St Andrews in July.
| Pos | Player | Major Career Best |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Smith | Win 2022 Open |
| 2 | C. Young | Runner up 2022 Open |
| 3 | R. McIlroy | Multiple Major wins |
| T4 | T. Fleetwood | Runner up 2019 Open |
| T4 | V. Hovland | 4th 2022 Open |
| T6 | B. Harman | Runner up 2017 US Open |
| T6 | D. Johnson | Multiple Major wins |
| T8 | B. DeChambeau | Winner 2020 US Open |
| T8 | J. Spieth | Multiple Major wins |
| T8 | P. Cantlay | 3rd 2019 PGA |
Four of the last 11 major winners from 2020 had already won one but a large majority over the past few decades have been first time winners and it still looks to be an area worth placing a lot of attention on.
Who are the likeliest first time winners at the Masters 2023?
Three of the last seven maiden major winners also came off the back of their best performance in a major to date. Young (28/1) and Victor Hovland (40/1) fit that bill and of the non-major winners certainly look worthy of attention. Hovland played in the final group with McIlroy at St Andrews while Young played in the second to last group with the winner Smith.
Fitzpatrick had a similar experience in the PGA when he played with Mito Pereira who led the whole way that Sunday until his final hole collapse. These experiences are invaluable when it comes to future majors and these two will be better equipped than most to deal with whatever a final round at Augusta throws at them if in contention.
The other non-major winners from inside the top 10 at St Andrews are Tommy Fleetwood (66/1), Brian Harman (150/1) and Patrick Cantlay (22/1). I'd be surprised if Harman manages to land a blow with his recent form but the other two are certainly worth considering.
Fleetwood comes in playing very solid golf following a near miss at the Valspar finishing 3rd and decent efforts in his three previous at Sawgrass, Bay Hill and Riviera. It has been good preparation for the Englishman and he'll remain a danger in all four majors and his game is extremely versatile. The first win stateside is still on his to do list and it may be a big ask for that to arrive at Augusta.
Cantlay on the other hand looks primed for a major title at any stage and will be high up many punters lists this time next week.
Two wins at the Memorial and multiple FedEx playoff wins have secured Cantlay a place at the top table in the game. His top 10 at St Andrews was his best finish in his last 14 tries in these events. That bodes well for Augusta but caution must be urged as we've had a false dawn with Cantlay before in Majors.
9th at Augusta in 2019 was followed by 3rd at the PGA at Bethpage the following month and from then onwards he failed to land a glove in any of the big four until St Andrews last summer. That is slightly alarming for a player of his calibre, however he does hit plenty of the trends needed here and arrives as one of the most consistent performers in the game.
Young has thrown his hat into the ring with style and it's no surprise he caught support last week shortening from 50/1 into 28/1. He will be a popular selection in the coming days but he is yet to win on the PGA tour and that looks a fair hurdle to overcome.
