Niall Lyons shares his Open Championship final day predictions & betting tips for the final major of the year at Royal Liverpool.
Open Championship - Winner
Brian Harman responded extremely well to a couple of early bogeys on Saturday and some flawless golf down the back nine saw him maintain his five-shot lead heading into Sunday. Today will be a totally different experience for the diminutive Harman and it remains to be seen whether those Sergio-type waggles creep into the game a bit more often when the pressure is cranked up. The Open has delivered some great storylines down the years and today could easily be another chapter.
Click here to read my outright tournament preview.
Open Championship Final Day Predictions | Golf Betting Tips
Cameron Young at 8/1
Cameron Young looks the most likely to chase Harman down and with Rahm already tucked in behind and trading single figures it is sensible to add Young to the list. Cam Young looked maybe to have turned a corner with his putting last time when we were on at the John Deere but his ball striking remained a little under the weather which made him a tough proposition to punt pre-tournament. He has turned that on it's head ranking ranking 1st off the tee and 1st on approach. Unfortunately, he ranks 69th of 76th in the putting statistics, this being the story of his year so far.
Nevertheless, the long game should determine whether Harman can be caught and if Young manages to take his chances on the final day then there's every reason to believe he will heap the pressure on the leader. Young can bank on recent experience in the Open last year when finishing runner-up and playing with the eventual winner on the final day. Harman ranks 1st on the greens and if the tables managed to be turned in that department then this could get a lot closer down the back nine. Given the condition of his long game and being one shot ahead of Rahm I expected him to be a couple of points shorter than the Spaniard.
Smith vs Reed
2023 Open Championship Final Day 2 Ball Predictions & Betting Tips
Cameron Smith v Patrick Reed
Cam Smith may still be struggling off the tee but what he has sorted out is his iron play this week. 60th on approach on day one has been followed by 5th and 27th the last two days to rank 10th in the field in that department. We had him backed to miss the cut and it looked likely needing a birdie up the 36th on Friday evening, but a stiffed approach for eagle meant the defending champ getting through to the weekend.
He is taking advantage and with a Sunday stroll with no pressure and his final day as the defending champion I expect him to go out and shoot a solid round. He plays with Reed who ranks 59th on approach and whose long game has struggled all week.
Hun An v Bjork
Byeong Hun An v Alexander Bjork
Alexander Bjork is as big as 7/5 to beat Byeong Hun An today and it's worth chancing the Swede who has shot in the 60s in nine of his last 11 final rounds. Bjork ranked 11th in the field with his irons whilst An ranks a lowly 71st. It should be enough to give the Swede the advantage who has uncharacteristically struggled with his game around the greens. Any improvement in that department should see him dispatch of the Korean.
Jordan vs Hojgaard
Matthew Jordan v Nicolai Hojgaard
Matthew Jordan has impressed all week especially with the irons ranking 4th in the field in that category. Whether he can keep that up for the final day is up for question but I expect him to fully embrace his final day around the Liverpool links.
The pressure will be off and the support he will receive should help with his job more or less done for the week. Nicolai Hojgaard has bigger fish to fry with huge pressure on him for a good finish for Ryder Cup qualification. It's an interesting dynamic but I expect the local lad to get the better of it with his irons performing much better.
1pt treble Smith, Bjork, Jordan to win 2 balls 8.5/1 Betfair Sportsbook
