The American Express

The Hawaii adventure is finished for another year and we now head to California for the first pro-am of the year across three courses.

We know the drill by now with the Pete Dye Stadium course being played for two days of the four, whilst the La Quinta and Nicklaus courses are used for the other two rounds. Rahm likened this to a 'putting contest' a couple of years ago and whilst his comments were made in anger he isn't far wrong.

The American Express Tips

 

The courses have little or no rough and driving distance holds little advantage. Grace is given to those who struggle around the greens with simple enough green complexes and very low rough. You'll want to avoid the greenside bunkers though as we've seen some horror stories from those down the years. I'll be looking to those playing well on approach and guys who have a tendency to get hot with the putter.

Tom Kim at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Putting contests certainly don't suit Scottie Scheffler and he reverted to type at Kapalua with a rip roaring week from tee to green being outdone by another woeful display with the putter. 5th was the best he could do, and once again it's a warning shot to the rest of what he is capable of if the putter behaves.

This is the strongest field ever to be assembled for this tournament and although Scheffler looks almost guaranteed to threaten or land a place, the reward at 6/1 in an event such as this just isn't enough.

If he shoots 26 under par there is every chance somebody else in the field does similar, and come the final few holes it's usually an ounce of luck here and there that determines the winner. Tom Kim is an absolute expert when it comes to this type of golf and I feel no need to get off the train at 25/1 this week.

I have high hopes about what he could achieve in the Majors this year, and one trend we often see if that the winner of those had already landed a victory earlier that season.

Despite the strong field, this represents a great chance for Kim to add another victory to his already bulging CV and given his last two victories have come in the Desert in Vegas he is well equipped here in California. He finished 6th here last year finishing four shots behind the winner Jon Rahm, having shot a superb round of 62 on day two.

Kim reached another level in the second half of 2023 finishing runner up in the Open and posting a handful of other top 10s. Solid efforts in France and at Wentworth showed his versatility and bar an ice cold putter at Kapalua he'd have kicked off 2024 with a much better finish than 45th. The bookies are well aware of his chances here but he rates a much better bet than Scheffler at more than four times the price of the tournament favourite. 

2pts each-way T.Kim 25/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power, William Hill

Si Woo Kim at 40/1 (Eight Places)

Si Woo Kim has kicked off 2024 with two fair efforts, 25th at Kapalua and 42nd at Waialae. A poor week on the greens last week put pay to his chances and his long game was certainly in good enough nick to get into contention. That has largely been the story since his victory there last year but it's encouraging to see a vast improvement in his approach play these opening weeks compared to the end of 2023 where he was really struggling with the irons.

The putter is the main issue but it's worth noting that bar his withdrawal here in 2020 he has gained a significant number of strokes on the greens each of his five other appearances here. That has resulted in a victory in 2021 as well as two other top 11 finishes.

His victory at Sawgrass in 2017 was a sign that he relishes the Dye courses and it's no surprise he has played well here down the years. His long game has picked up the pace early in 2024 and he looks ready for another title tilt here in the Desert. 

1.5pts each-way Si Woo Kim 40/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power, William Hill

Taylor Montgomery at 50/1 (Eight Places)

Taylor Montgomery promised a lot last season after a sparkling start to his PGA Tour career late in 2022. His form somewhat nosedived after that though before fair improvement from October onwards in 2023. He finished off the year with a top 10 at the RSM Classic courtesy of a red hot putter which still proves to be his main armour. The heights he could reach if his long game ever catches up would be dizzying but for now he looks destined to rely on the trusted putter and hope for a good week with the irons.

Finishes of 16th at the Zozo and 31st at the WWT Championship suggest he was playing well enough last November, but strokes gained stats were back for the RSM where he ranked 14th on approach. Last week was even better finishing 2nd for the week on approach play and if this continues he may just strike for a maiden victory. He finished 5th here on debut last year and 50/1 is worth chancing that he has gotten his iron play together after two promising approach weeks. 

1.25pts each-way T.Montgomery 50/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill

Cameron Davis at 50/1 (Ten Places)

I'm happy to take the chance on Cameron Davis at 50/1+ given that there has been a fair upturn on the greens for him these last six to eight months. 20th with the putter at Kapalua then 4th last week at Waialae has kicked off an eye-catching start to the year on the greens. So far it hasn't translated to results yet with 52nd at the Sentry largely being down to a really disappointing week with his approach play.

His irons improved dramatically last week and if we see further improvement in that department then we have someone who definitely has the ability to add to his current tally of one PGA Tour victory. 6th last March at Sawgrass and 3rd here back in 2021 is enough evidence to suggest that Pete Dye courses suit and if his form with the putter continues then it's only a matter of time before the rest of the game falls into place. 

1.25pts each-way C.Davis 50/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes

Robert MacIntyre at 200/1 (Eight Places)

I just have to have a small punt on Rob MacIntyre as he has produced enough performances down the last few years to suggest he has a higher ceiling than many others around or above him in the market.

There was plenty to like about his debut at the Sony Open finishing 52nd there, and having a very decent week with the irons. He sprayed the ball a little from the tee and we all know that's not the way to score around Waialae.

These Desert courses will provide a little grace in that department even though he'll have the odd bit of water to contend with. During his career he has won the Italian Open fending off McIlroy and Fitzpatrick there, he did everything but win the Scottish Open in the Summer with McIlroy pipping him on the 72nd, whilst he has various solid efforts in the Dubai Desert.

He qualified as the 3rd best European in the Ryder Cup rankings, and although at the time considered one of the weakest of the 12, he came up with the goods when asked. He is inexperienced in this type of golf, but he certainly doesn't lack solid efforts in fields of this strength and the each way part of the bet at 200/1 looks worth chancing. 

0.75pt each-way R.MacIntyre 200/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power