Masters First Round Leader

The first round leader can often be determined by the conditions and this week at the 2024 Masters looks no different. 

We look certain to have a stop/start beginning to the 2024 edition with strong winds and heavy rain forecast for large parts of Thursday. Just how much golf they get in is anyone's guess but it's difficult to know which side of the draw will have the advantage.

I'd air on the side of the late starters getting the best of it as they may get the majority, if not all of their first round in perfect conditions on Friday morning. That is far from set in stone though and considering both sides is a necessity. 

Masters First Round Leader Predictions & Tips

 

Xander Schauffele @ 25/1 (Seven Places)

Russell Henley has made six cuts on the trot around here and his dogged determination may get him into the picture here at the weekend. 

Around the 50/1 mark he is another one considering from the morning wave. I slightly prefer the afternoon wave though simply because they may play more golf on Friday and for that reason I'll swerve Henley and opt for XANDER SCHAUFFELE. 

As I wrote in my outright preview I don't quite hold the same negative view as many regarding Xander's lack of wins of late and if I'm proven wrong and he shirks the chance on Sunday then so be it, but there's little question in his ability to get into contention prior. 

An opening 65 saw him lead at Sawgrass after 18 holes, and last time out a 68 to open at the Valspar was another fine effort. He led last year's US Open after a sparkling 62 on day one last year which means he has landed this market twice in his last 16 tries. The fact they are both the US Open and the Players Championship spells he isn't afraid to go low early in these events. 

He has plenty of low rounds at Augusta before and looking back over the last five years, with Hovland and Scheffler the only two who fare better than him in round 1 scoring at the Majors. Hovland is in poor form and both him and Scheffler may get the wrong side of the draw on day one so Xander makes plenty of appeal to land the odds once again on day one. 

Dustin Johnson @ 40/1 (Six Places)

Jordan Spieth is another very lively runner in this market given the bright periods he managed last week in Texas. He has done it before around here and it'd be no surprise should he threaten the FRL from a late start. 

This event is generally won from the front with very little coming from outside the top 10 after round one to win in the last few decades. Therefore, concentrating on lively contenders for the green jacket is advised and with the latest start of them all DUSTIN JOHNSON looks like one who could benefit from the early weather. 

There's no doubt the course will be the most receptive late on Thursday and early on Friday before it dries out over the weekend, and with Dustin having shot record scores on the softest Masters to date he could repeat the scenes that saw him win here in November of 2020. 

He managed two 65s that week and that added to plenty of mid to late 60s rounds posted here before. He featured high enough on my list in the outright and it wasn't easy to leave him off the staking plan. 

It's not a swipe at LIV Golf, but four rounds may see him more likely to shoot a poor one at some time over the week, so round 1 leader or lowest round score each day may be the best way to play him. 

Tony Finau @ 40/1 (Seven Places)

There is little doubt that the early morning wave will get some wet conditions so in turn I'd prefer to look at the longer hitters in that bracket and I'm happy to play TONY FINAU at 40/1. 

Finau has probably been playing better than his results suggest all year and holds a lively chance of getting involved in this event at the business end. The question is whether his putting will hold up, and there have definitely been improvements in that department in the last month or so. 

Only a cold putter thwarted him in his quest at the Houston Open finishing one shot behind the winner Stephan Jaeger. Over the years here he has managed plenty of good finishes, including a 66 on day 2 in 2021, a 64 on day 3 in 2019 and a 66 on the final day in 2018. 

There aren't many in the field who boast numbers as low and as often as that around here so with plenty of length off the tee he may be suited by the wet conditions that will face these players early on Thursday.