Masters 2024

It has been a challenging season for the game of golf with the quality of leaderboards being questioned throughout and there's no doubt The Masters comes at a perfect time and we can only hope it's the beginning of some of the big players in the game turning up and in turn ramping up the entertainment.

The Masters 2024 Tips

 

*The players were tipped at the prices above by Niall Lyons on Monday.

Throughout the years we have seen plenty of changes to the course, with the 11th and 15th holes being changed fairly dramatically a couple of years ago. This time around we see the 13th  hole lengthened and some trees removed that will make the second shot a little more thought provoking than what it once was.

The tee box on the par 5 2nd has also been tweaked to make that first shot a little bit more treacherous.

The par 5s obviously play an important part throughout the week and it'll be crucial to make some hay on those as the par 4s are notoriously difficult. However, it's on those par 4s that this tournament will be won and lost and it usually takes a good number in that statistic to compete in the final few groups on Sunday.

Approach play is key as we know around Augusta, with the last three winners ranking inside the top 6 in that statistic for the week. 13 of the 17 who have made the top 5 and ties over the last three years have ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained around the green for the week, and I'd argue that element is as important as the iron play. The areas around the greens are tightly mown and it causes second guessing with even the best of golfers as they attempt to get the ball as close to the hole as possible for a recovery. 

Driving distance has often been cited as extremely important but Rahm ranked 24th in that department last year, Scheffler 16th in 2022 and Matsuyama 47th the year previous. Driving accuracy certainly appears to be playing more of a role the last couple of years with some canny slopes now on the fairways directing slightly wayward balls into a lot of trouble. Shorter than average hitters can certainly struggle, but I wouldn't necessarily be looking to the top 10% of longer hitters, simply longer than average will suffice. 

Below is a look at some of the stats of top performers in the past three Masters tournaments.

 

Xander Schauffele at 16/1 (Eight Places)

Xander Schauffele (subsequently put up in my first round leader tips too) is one of the rare anomalies in major betting markets that he'll probably close enough to his exchange price with the bookmakers and with plenty of places on offer. That alone will make him a bet for many, but there will also be plenty out there who will take a swipe at his ability to get over the line in recent years.

Spieth's last victory came in April of 2022, Cantlay's last in August 2022, Justin Thomas' last in May 2022, so Schauffele whose last victory came in July of 2022 may get a shade more abuse for his winless run despite having a much more consistent period.

With the narrative surrounding him you'd be forgiven for thinking he had plenty of 54 hole leads, but since the win in Scotland almost two years ago he has only held one 54 hole lead, which was the Players Championship last month.

Since the beginning of 2022 Schauffele has finished inside the top 20 in 72% of his 55 starts. He has finished inside the top 5 in a staggering 32% of those events. That all but makes him a bet at the price regardless and even more so when you consider he has finished inside the top 20 in 15 of his last 19 Major starts.

Schauffele doesn't have a weakness in his game, but it's worth pointing out that statistically this is the best golf he has played in his career in 2024 even without a victory. Only a sparkling final round of 64 by Scottie Scheffler thwarted his bid at Sawgrass a few weeks ago otherwise he'd have been in another playoff there.

It's worth noting that he tied a red hot Viktor Hovland over four rounds at East Lake last August also. They were both 7 shots clear of 3rd in the 72 hole market. His runner up at Quail Hollow last year was to the eventual US Open Champion that year so there is plenty of evidence that despite not managing a win lately it takes a very special effort to beat him.

With weaknesses all around in players of similar ability this year on the PGA Tour, Schauffele is one to come out with a lot of credit and whether it's another challenging Sunday or not, I'd prefer to be on board him than not when he looks booked for another solid effort.

3pts each-way X.Schauffele 16/1 (1/5 8) General

Joaquin Niemann at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Joaquin Niemann got his invitation through some hard graft and wasn't far off being inside the worlds top 50 at the end of the year courtesy of two excellent efforts in Australia.

5th place at the Australian PGA was followed by a victory in the Australian Open the following week and he'll attempt to do what Spieth done and win the Masters shortly after winning that event.

I'm still surprised by Niemann's place in the market and for price reason alone I'm happy to include him in the staking plan.

The Chilean has managed two victories at Mayakoba and Jeddah this year on the LIV circuit and together with top 5s at Hong Kong, Oman and the Dubai Desert he has only been outside the top 5 once in his last eight starts.

He has the lowest scoring average on the LIV tour this season, ranks 1st in the all important par 4 scoring department and only Dechambeau ranks longer off the tee than him this year. His ball striking capabilities make him a perfect fit for Augusta and it's encouraging he managed his first top 20 here last year.

Therein lies a negative that we've yet to see him in Major contention, and for me that's a big worry. Nevertheless, Wyndham Clark overcame that last year following a breakthrough victory, and I can't help but feel Niemann has reached a peak in the last few months also.

A former winner at Riviera is always a positive also, as Matsuyama was the latest in a long line of players to have won there and at Augusta. Quantifying LIV form is never easy but I'd make the case behind Scheffler and Clark that he has been one of the most impressive golfers in the last 4 or 5 months. 

2pts each-way J.Niemann 25/1 (1/5 8) General

Cameron Young at 45/1 (Eight Places)

Bryson DeChambeau must get a mention having picked up two events in Autumn last year and having started 2024 in fine style also.

His remarks about the course a few years ago now look silly, as do I for backing him. He has the ability to shoot a low score here, but over four rounds he doesn't have what it takes to win this.

Dustin Johnson is another who has played well enough this year to get into the conversation. It remains to be seen, but after what we seen last year, and what has materialised this year on the PGA Tour, the LIV Tour guys could be the ones to follow this time around.

Dustin looks a much better proposition at the odds though than Bryson considering he is a much better course fit. However, it's a little difficult to weigh up just how well those two are playing whilst I'm convinced Niemann is on a similar level to Rahm at this current time. 

I must admit I've found it tough to eliminate Wyndham Clark from the list this week and despite being a huge buyer of Ludvig Aberg stock for the future, I'm of the opinion Clark holds a much more lively chance in terms of these two debutants.

His all round game probably suits Augusta a little more than the Swede and his shot making capability gives him a lively chance of upsetting the long record of non winning first timers. He has that little bit more experience in the bank than Aberg also and in a match bet I'd have the American comfortably.

However, it'll be a tough task around this track for the first time and the price just doesn't have enough juice in it. Corey Conners is one with a fine record here who could easily go well once again. His long game is impeccable but he'd need a career week to win this and I'd say he's booked for another place at best. 

The narrative around playing extremely well in the lead into the Masters is one to keep close to your decision making but despite some average golf I was very tempted by Patrick Cantlay at the odds. Cantlay hasn't put his best foot forward this year with all parts of his game struggling at some point or other. It's all about putting it together over four rounds which he hasn't managed to do this year.

His placings after round 1 this year read 7-5-2-2-1-57-75. The last two results do worry me of course but over the course of those previous five first rounds there aren't a whole pile who have beaten him. He has been inside the top 15 on 15 occasions at the end of 27 rounds.

That spells to me the man isn't in the worst of form, and is in fact scoring well for how his game has been over the course of the first few months of the year. He has been steadily improving in Majors in the last two years, and I can forgive him his 33rd placed finish in tough conditions at Royal Liverpool. The manner in which he dealt with the 'hat day' at the Ryder Cup was admirable and he showed that day just how much guts he has in the heat of a battle.

Quite simply, he has drifted to a very backable mark and he's one of the very few who could give Scheffler a run for his money should the favourite play as we all expect him to.

Cameron Young will be a hot topic this time around having had the misfortune of getting the nickname 'Scam' Young among punters who have run out of patience with the 26 year old. I am somebody who is happy to play the long game and refrain from the knee jerk reactions that accompany some golfers whenever they go through a winless period.

Of course Young is still a maiden, but a classy one at that. 15th on approach play this season, and 15th from tee to green there is no doubt Young has the skills to score well at Augusta.

He was all the rage last year and was three under through as many holes in round 1, eventually finishing 7th. He looked to be a golfer entirely suited by the game needed to succeed at Augusta and for my money he arrives in better form than what he did last year when he went off a general 25/1 shot.

He was beaten in the Match Play final two weeks before last years Masters but his only other top 5 in the lead in was in the Saudi International. This time around his form looks much stronger. He will strip fitter for his final round jaunt with McIlroy in the Dubai Desert where he led going into the final day before McIlroy pushing past him.

A closing 66 saw him finish 4th at PGA National and his last time out runner up at the Valspar can not be considered a choke giving he did little wrong in defeat. These efforts suggest to me he is in a much better place compared to last year and although we have a stronger favourite in 2024, I'd have Young the same price as last year if not shorter.

He may not win, but he's another who could be a strong presence on the leaderboard throughout the weekend, and sooner or later the discarded pieces of the jigsaw will fit into place. 

1.5pts each-way C.Young 45/1 (1/5 8) Bet365

Shane Lowry at 45/1 (Eight Places)

I can't help but feel Shane Lowry's preparation for this event has been hindered a little by the trip to Singapore but it's difficult to ignore his finishes prior to that and for that reason he enters the staking plan.

It was a slowish start to the year where he mostly struggled with the putter than any other part of his game but things picked up in Florida with another great finish at PGA National when 4th, then 3rd at Bayhill and inside the top 20 at Sawgrass.

His approach play finishes for those weeks were 2nd, 7th and 13th, with two of those in extremely deep fields. Since 2019 Lowry hasn't been outside the top 25 at Augusta with a best of 3rd place in 2022.

His approach play and wizardry around the greens make him a perfect candidate for success at Augusta and he rates a solid each way play at the odds.

1.5pts each-way S.Lowry 45/1 (1/5 8) Bet365

Adam Scott at 100/1 (Eight Places)

Outsiders don't win the Masters too often, but this year suggests it's more possible than ever given the average record of some of the middle pack before heading to Georgia.

I'm still inclined to believe that if a big priced winner does win, it'll be someone with a relatively successful last six months and someone proven in big events.

Si Woo Kim is one of those who fits that bracket and has had a tremendous ball striking year to date. I'd question whether he has the temperament to win around here given the ups and downs of a gruelling week at Augusta, but on paper he certainly has the game to get into contention.

The fact that the last Major is often a big clue to the next I'm happy to play the runner up at Royal Liverpool, Sepp Straka. The Austrian has produced some fine efforts in the past few years and is now a double PGA Tour winner courtesy of a duo of 'Classics' wins at the Honda and John Deere.

Two other playoff defeats mean with an ounce more luck Straka could have won four PGA tour titles in the last couple of years. His runner up at last years Open was alongside Jon Rahm and a shot clear of Rory McIlroy. At the Hero in December he was second to Scottie Scheffler and ahead of a star studded pack.

His playoff defeat in the Fedex was at the hands of Will Zalatoris whilst they were clear of the likes of Rahm and Smith. All this experience together with a successful stint at the Ryder Cup suggests Straka is capable of upsetting the odds here.

I'm a massive fan of his temperament for Majors, but maybe he's best left for the remaining ones this year as opposed to the Masters. 

Instead I'll opt for 2013 Masters Champion Adam Scott as being the old timer who gets into the mix here over the weekend.

The Australian has been playing sneaky good golf this last six months and although he didn't fair overly well in the Florida swing, his efforts prior to that suggest he's capable of landing a place here at least.

At the end of the year he finished 6th and 4th across the two Australian events, then kicked off 2024 with 7th in the Dubai Desert, one shot behind Niemann. 20th at Pebble followed, then 8th at Phoenix and 19th at the Genesis. he was 12th on approach at Pebble, and 3rd on approach at Scottsdale.

With fourteen made cuts on the trot in this event he makes appeal for each way backers given he could comfortably get into the first 10 or 12.

The other Majors may be beyond reach for the 43 year old nowadays, but I certainly wouldn't put it past him getting involved in another tussle around Amen Corner this Sunday.

1pt each-way A.Scott 100/1 (1/5 8) Skybet