US Open 2024

Pinehurst has held the 1999, 2005 and 2014 editions of the US Open and each one has been absolutely captivating. Payne Stewart is without doubt the most memorable with a riveting battle with Mickelson down the back nine. 

On each occasion the greens have been the talking point, almost like upturned saucers. Mickelson has always been an expert in tight lie situations around the greens, whilst Stewart and Campbell both won with a particularly low greens in regulation percentage. 

Similar played out in 2014 when Kaymer topped the scrambling stat when winning, using the putter from off the greens to separate himself from the field.

It's a design where anything can happen if you stray offline from the tee, but I'd be surprised if the event isn't won and lost with the action around the greens. This could be a week where the best short game players come to the fore, unlike other recent US Major Championships.

US Open Tips

Here is a table showing the top 10 in the PGA Championship across the last five years and their corresponding results at the US Open.

With the risk of sounding like a broken record, the trend to keep the closest eye on is the previous Major result. Since the two events moved alongside each other in the schedule there has been a remarkable similarity and cross over between the two. 

Incredibly, the winner and runner up in four of the last five US Opens had finished in the top 10 in the USPGA the month prior. Wyndham Clark last year was the first winner of the US Open since the change in schedule not to have finished in the top 10 of the USPGA that year. 

It's an incredible statistic that needs due care and attention when selecting your bets for the US Open. It seems the winner at Pinehurst will more than likely come from the top 10 from the PGA at Valhalla just a few weeks ago.

This golf course throws up a lot of different shots, and it will take imagination to win around here. Michael Campbell was a links expert when winning here near the turn of the century. This is a totally different test than our traditional US Open / USPGA tests of recent years and the same importance on length off the tee doesn't apply here. 

This makes it a totally different betting heat than these recent Majors and I don't quite think the bookmakers adjust to this change. We see the same or similar prices as to what we would if this was a long, traditional, moder US Open course setup. 

This results in a more eclectic set of golfers who could possibly win this and is a welcome change from recent Major markets. Accuracy off the tee will be more important here and bad shots will be more heavily punished than Valhalla a number of weeks ago. 

Now let’s look at my seven tips for the week in more detail.

Tommy Fleetwood @ 30/1 (10 Places)

Tommy Fleetwood had a decent warm up at the Memorial last week and the time is upon us for him to win his Major Championship. Stars align many times for various golfers and everything is set for the Englishman to have a great week in North Carolina. 

We may have yet to see the impact of his win in Dubai in January, but I don't think it's too far away and his pipping of McIlroy there down a back nine duel was highly important. 

He has had numerous solid results since, not least the 3rd placed finish at the Masters in June. There he showed once again his ability to chip from tightly mown grass. A prolific performer on Links courses also makes Fleetwood one of the most appealing bets at this week’s Us Open.

4th at Erin Hills and runner up at Shinnecock are examples of how well Fleetwood plays these firmer US Opens where emphasis is less on what you do from the tee. 

In that department he is above average in driving distance and remarkably accurate. That should keep him away from the trouble off the tee and from there on he possesses the necessary skills to get involved at the business end. Don't be afraid of the fact he hasn't won in the States yet, this represents one of his best chances in Major Championships to date.

2.5pts each-way T.Fleetwood 30/1 (1/5 10) Betfred, 33/1 (1/5 8)

You can back Niall's picks for the US Open at a guaranteed best price through oddschecker by clicking on the odds widget below each tip.

Viktor Hovland @ 18/1

I fully expect a less predictable leaderboard in this Championship compared to recent renewals and although that may work in the bookmakers’ favour with the masses still siding with stereotypical US Open experts, the shrewdies may just capitalise by steering clear of many of the favourites. 

Scheffler is the exception of course as he may make a mockery of his competition here, but I see little value in many towards the top. The one I'm happy to back win only after a disappointing weekend at Muirfield Village is Viktor Hovland. 

The Norwegian now has three top four finishes in his last seven Majors, and only once has he finished outside the top 20 in those. He is getting closer each time and heading up the 72nd at Valhalla he looked to have every chance of getting into a playoff. He was placed nicely after two rounds at the Memorial but even throughout his eight over par weekend there were some positives ranking 6th off the tee on Saturday and 7th on approach Sunday. 

Granted, a course that will specifically test your abilities around the green may not be perfect for Hovland, but he coped remarkably well with a somewhat similar skillset needed at St Andrews a few years ago going close there. 

The gap may be bridged by the difficulty of the task to scramble around the greens here and given his prolific rate of contending these Majors he looks the most likely of the market leaders to trouble the favourite.

3.5pts WIN V.Hovland 18/1 Bet Victor, Unibet (22/1 exchange)

Tyrrell Hatton @ 50/1 (10 Places)

Matt Fitzpatrick probably has his best chance of winning another American Major since 2022 US Open victory this week with the venue being much more up his street. It is an awfully difficult task to win another though and instead I'll side with his fellow countryman Tyrrell Hatton. 

Hatton had a middling week last week at LIV Houston and I don't consider that perfect preparation for this, but nor is any LIV event good prep. Hatton comes here a little under the radar following a great Masters finishing 9th and then a disappointing down the field effort at Valhalla.

Nevertheless, this venue should really suit him with a great ability to chip off tight lies. He will be suited by a bit more room off the tee here and his game gets better from there on. 

His temperament for a US Open may be questionable, especially if this comes down to a mental battle of hanging onto scores, but he has shown great tenacity in the past. 

A final day mauling of McIlroy in Abu Dhabi springs to mind as well as a BMW win at Wentworth, and more importantly a battling victory at the Arnold Palmer where he won on a score of 4 under par, something similar as to what we may see this week.

Fellow LIV competitor Cameron Smith is another who will be suited by the test, but my preference at bigger odds is for Hatton who could surprise many here this week.

1.5pts each-way T.Hatton  50/1  (1/5 10) Paddy Power

Alex Noren @ 125/1 (Eight Places)

Alex Noren is certainly below average in terms of distance off the tee, but he makes up for it with accuracy and given his experience in the game now in his early 40s he can bring that to the table to have a good week in the year’s third Major.

The Swede has played well in many Links events down the years which I hold important this week in terms of low shots around the greens and imagination needed. 

He won at Castle Stuart back in 2016 and arrives here off a 12th place finish at the PGA last month. Noren, like Fleetwood has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but has won the best Europe has to offer at the BMW Championship. During the last six months he ranks 2nd in the field in Scrambling, and 8th around the greens. 

An educated sort in tight lies around the greens he should relish this task. He has established himself as one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour and it's no surprise DataGolf have him ranked 18th in their world ranking system.

You'll find 40+ golfers ahead of him in the market this week and with a short game as potent as his he rates a solid bet at the price and place terms available. 

1pt each-way A.Noren  125/1 (1/5 8) Sky Bet, William Hill, Quinn Bet

Billy Horschel @ 150/1 (Eight Places)

I'll be taking a risk spreading my stakes far and wide in this event and next on the list is Billy Horschel. Horschel was in the depths of despair with his game 12-18 months ago but has recovered remarkably well and a similar story played out with Stenson resulting in him landing an Open Championship in the Autumn of his career. 

The 37-year-old has recovered well in the last ten months and a victory in Punta Cana in April was a huge marker of his comeback. Let's not forget what he has won. The Memorial, The Matchplay, BMW Championship and amongst others the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup back in 2014. He has lifted some of the biggest and best Championships in the world, but hasn't quite stepped up to the plate in Majors. 

He arrives here off the back of his second best Major finish with an 8th place at Valhalla, and looking at the tables above that has been a big pointer to US Open performance thereafter. His willingness to cross the water and compete in England and Scotland down the years will be of big benefit here as this isn't a challenge they normally face in Majors. 

Those efforts to compete in different environments will give him an edge at Pinehurst and with his PGA finish as well as a solid top 15 last week at Muirfield Village he looks a sleeping giant at triple figure prices. 

1pt each-way B.Horschel  150/1  (1/5 8) bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill

Sepp Straka @ 90/1 (Seven Places)

He won't be on the staking plan but the way Jordan Spieth is driving the ball lately catches the eye, and although the other parts of his game are missing right now, Pinehurst would be a great setup for him normally. Imagination around the greens is what he is special at and the assignment in that department may just breathe life into the game's best entertainer. 

If he starts well he's maybe one to get on board with in running. I selected Min Woo Lee in my ante-post preview in January and despite not hitting the heights I expected this year, he has still shortened in price from the advised 80/1 and he remains a big player this week with his short game ready to shine on the perfect layout. 

Ryan Fox is another worth considering with a tremendous links record and improving a lot over the last year. He can get very streaky with the putter and looks more than capable of winning a Major Championship. 

After landing a place with Sepp Straka last week at 66/1 I feel there is little reason not go in again and I can't for the life of me understand why he is a bigger price than last week following that 5th placed effort. Scheffler, Schauffele, McIlroy, Hovland, Morikawa and Aberg lead the market this week, and all those six were in the field last week at the Memorial. 

The inclusion of an injured and out of sorts Rahm doesn't make the field much stronger, and I find it difficult to see Bryson excelling around this Pinehurst track. The Austrian beat Schauffele, McIlroy and Hovland at Muirfield Village and should be suited by a Major track that demands imagination. 

His win at the Honda Classic looks fairly relevant and it's a simple case of the price being a little too big, bigger than last week, with more places on offer. I don't think he faces a much bigger task personnel wise, although the size of the achievement would be much greater obviously. 

1pt each-way S.Straka  90/1  (1/5 7) Unibet

Austin Eckroat @ 275/1 (10 Places)

Robert MacIntyre may just well ride this crest of a wave and find himself in the last few groups once again like he did at Valhalla. He grabbed that baton with both hands and Pinehurst looks a promising venue for the Scot to continue his ascent in the game. 

Akshay Bhatia could potentially be an underrated golfer in the field still and it wouldn't surprise me to see him outplay his triple figure quotes this week. Similar applies to Austin Eckroat and I'm happy to include him at 150/1 with favourable place terms. 

The manner in which Eckroat won that Monday at PGA National was hugely impressive and it didn't seem like a fluke. He looked extremely capable whilst holding off the challenge of Min Woo Lee and with Shane Lowry in behind also it looks like a relevant tournament to turn to. 

The Cognizant (Honda Classic to me and you) roll of honour has been littered with Open winners and runners up down the years and the emphasis I put this week on that type of skill, shot making and imagination means those successful there have an advantage. 

It's no coincidence Min Woo played well there and remains high up my list this week also. Eckroat has bounced back well following a lull after his victory with top 20s coming at the Heritage, Zurich Classic then the PGA Championship. 

Backing him at these prices in Majors will have you ahead of the handicapper in my view and hopefully he can capitalise and give us a run for our money at a tasty price. 

0.75pt each-way A.Eckroat  275/1  (1/5 10) Betfred