Cheltenham Festival 2023

The Cheltenham Festival 2023 is only four weeks away and I have put 10 of the favourites under the microscope and analysed their chances as to whether their position at the top of the market is justified or not. 

Last year’s Cheltenham Festival saw only four winning favourites, its lowest number in well over a decade, yet this year’s Festival has – at different times – had loads of horses priced at 7/4 or shorter in the ante-post markets.

Given the star power that will be on show at this year’s Festival, there is a possibility the number of favourites winning will be higher than last year. But not all of them will win, so who will BOOM and who will BUST? Let’s take a look. 

Facile Vega

  • Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 
  • Best price: 10/3
  • Form: 1111P 

 

The opener at the Festival, the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, has undoubtedly seen mixed results in regards to the favourite over the years. In the last decade, only three favourites have collected the spoils, who were all coincidentally been trained by Willie Mullins - Vautour (2014), Douvan (2015) and Appreciate It (2021). 

Unsurprisingly, it’s Mullins who heads the market with his Facile Vega, though I beg to differ as to whether he should be favourite now after his dismal performance at the Dublin Racing Festival. It came to light that there was a reason behind his poor display, which was down to being lame, and that is an understandable excuse to some extent. 

Previously, last season’s impressive Champion Bumper winner won all of his first six starts, including the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating stablemate II Etait Temps by four lengths. His jumping wasn’t foot-perfect in the latter stages but he got the job done in decent style. 

Given the runner-up comprehensively took full advantage of the winner’s disappointment when last seen, it came to fruition that the odds-on favourite failed to showcase his natural qualities and class that saw him win his first six starts. In spite of this, he isn’t a lost cause and there’s no better trainer to get him back on track than Mullins. 

It wouldn’t come as a surprise were he to resume winning ways but when you factor into the equation that 11 of the last 12 winners of the Supreme won on their last start, this is far from an ideal preparation. Still, he is a top-class horse and there’s no disguising what he has already achieved but I just cannot be having him favourite here and I think something will beat him. BUST. 

Jonbon

  • Arkle Novices’ Chase
  • Best price: 15/8
  • Form: 121111

 

Jonbon’s only defeat in his career in eight starts was at the expense of stablemate Constitution Hill in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle when second and being a full-brother to the high-class Douvan, he was always going to reach even greater heights with a set of fences in front of him despite winning his Grade 1 over hurdles at Aintree on his final start last term. 

He is unbeaten after three starts over fences and was impressive in winning the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown, on his penultimate start, his second top-level success. His accurate and assured jumping has been poetry and evident in all his chase victories to date and that asset will stand him in good stead ahead of next month’s main assignment. 

He has, however, beat inferior opposition and his win in a match-race over the weekend hardly set the pulse racing either, where he took an age to finally see off Calico, who in all fairness, is not a Grade 1 horse. Nicky Henderson’s inmate will not afford to repeat that at Cheltenham against better rivals, as he might just end up being out of his comfort zone again and his jumping will be put under the utmost pressure. 

He is clearly a high-class horse and it will no doubt take a good performance from anything else to bring an end to his unbeaten record over fences but given he only had a neck to spare over El Fabiolo over hurdles, and the runner-up dished out a classy performance in the Irish Arkle last time when beating good horses, despite not jumping fluently, the rolls could be reversed here. 

I do feel as though a star will be unearthed in this race and it should come from one of the two big guns. It could be Jonbon, who had a hard race at Cheltenham and that’s why he only scrambled home at Aintree, while it could be Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo, who lacked experience when narrowly beaten by the former at Aintree and the proximity between the pair could be completely different next month over fences. 

Both the market leaders are undefeated over fences and while Jonbon is a decent price, he has a much tougher task on his hands now than what looked likely earlier in the season and I am happy to oppose him in favour of El Fabiolo. The big Irish challenger lacks the experience of the course compared to Jonbon but his jumping should improve from the Dublin Racing Festival, while Saint Roi isn’t out of this either, so for Jonbon, I say BUST. 

Constitution Hill

  • Champion Hurdle
  • Best price: 4/11
  • Form: 11111

 

It is hard to find any negatives within the credentials of Constitution Hill, who has made every horse he has been up against so far under rules look ordinary. This potential superstar has been a strong ante-post favourite for the feature race on day one ever since he routed his rivals in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the last Cheltenham Festival and the sky's the limit as to what he will achieve in years to come.

He is unbeaten in five starts and nothing has distinctly got close to him in all of his wins to date. He is well on the way to becoming one of the best hurdlers we have seen but despite his dominance, is the Champion Hurdle his race to lose? 

I don’t think so. I know he has blown away his stablemates Jonbon and Epatante, which is scarily good, but Mullins’ pair State Man or even Vauban might have something to say about that and this isn’t a one-horse race. 

State Man has improved leaps and bounds since his win in the County Hurdle and is also unbeaten in Grade 1 events. Whether he can master Constitution Hill’s turn of foot is another question that needs to be answered but I am optimistic about him making it difficult for the heavy favourite next month. Is he a banker? Well, surely he can’t keep beating good horses forever so effortlessly, can he? He will probably prove me wrong (again) but I’m still with State Man. BUST. 

Hermes Allen

  • Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 
  • Best price: 3/1
  • Form: 111

 

The champion trainer Paul Nicholls has been out of luck in this race for the last couple of season as his Stage Star was pulled up 12 months ago while Bravemansgame could only finish third in it the year before but he could have a serious horse on his hands in the shape of Hermes Allen, who could be very special indeed. 

The progression this bright youngster has made in a short space of time since winning a Maiden Hurdle at Stratford to winning the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury two starts later has left a great sense of elation and, moreover, he has won all three starts by a combined 40-lengths. 

After an imperious 27-length win on his stable/hurdles debut, he then took the step up in grade in his stride when comfortably winning the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Trial) on his first visit to Cheltenham, where he jumped and travelled beautifully before quickening clear to score by nine lengths. He clocked a useful time-figure too. 

His next target was the Challow Hurdle and while it looked a seriously-strong race on paper, he also had to prove he could handle deeper conditions, as he tackled soft ground for the first time. Nevertheless, Hermes Allen - who is co-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, proved in another league to his rivals, where he cruised to an easy victory without hitting top gear under a confident Harry Cobden. 

On the back of this impressive display, he soon became favourite for the Ballymore at next month’s Cheltenham Festival. He will face some strong Irish raiders in this and he is the only British representative in the first 10 in the ante-post market as well. Even so, the fact that he has proven to handle all ground and has winning course form in the book with more to come, makes him the one to beat. I like his claims. BOOM.  

Gerri Colombe 

  • Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 
  • Best price: 5/2
  • Form: 11111 

 

Gordon Elliott’s Gerri Colombe doesn’t do anything flashy but he has the winning mentality and he recently made his first visit to the UK a winning one, as he claimed the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase in workmanlike fashion under Jordan Gainford. His success saw him make it seven wins from seven starts. 

The seven year old arrived at the Esher venue on the back of a Grade 1 success at Limerick over Christmas but he didn’t win as smoothly as most had hoped for beforehand, including myself, and while he clearly stays and jumps well, he only had just over a length to spare from Balco Coastal.

While he is sure to prove popular for next month's possible target, he isn’t certain to line-up and connections are already eyeing up a tilt at Gold Cup next season - his ultimate target. 

He won’t afford to hit a flat spot like he did at Sandown here if he lines up and if he does, something else might just get the better of him. His biggest danger is Thyme Hill, who has lots of Cheltenham Festival form and is a much better horse than the horse Gerri Colombe beat the last day. He might be unbeaten after seven starts but he is too short, will need to do better and be more alert to the job in hand if he’s to succeed. BUST.  

Energumene 

  • Champion Chase 
  • Best price: 13/8
  • Odds: 111113

 

The defending champion, Energumene, could only manage third in the Clarence House Chase when last spotted after a bad mistake at the final fence. That shock defeat saw him drift out slightly for the Champion Chase in March but even though he was behind Edwardstone and Editeur Du Gite, he still remains ahead of the pair in the ante-post market as the current 13/8 favourite. 

It is clear he ran below his best and didn’t jump as well as he can, even without the mistake, which ultimately sealed his fate of potential success in the end. I would be confident Paul Townend will adopt front-running tactics next month, which I think will see the champion at his best and you can’t argue with how dominant he was in the race 12 months ago.

If you can forgive him for that one rare-blip, his initial price tag could look huge next month but then again, you could argue Edwardstone, who ran his race and did well to get as close as he did to Editeur Du Gite last time, should be shorter. He ran away with the Arkle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and that form has been boosted since. 

The form of Energumene’s win in this last year has been advertised recently though as well, as the second, Funambule Sivola, won at Newbury in a Grade 2 over the weekend. The more I think about this, the more I think Energumene is the one to beat despite his defeat last time.

His RPR last time was way off his best but he was still in contention at the final fence and who knows how much he would have found off the bridle if he winged the fence and landed running with momentum. 

Townend was easy on him afterwards, not giving him a hard race, compared to Edwardstone, who was under full drive and I wonder if the Clarence House Chase will leave its mark on the front pair heading into Cheltenham next month. Energumene’s mistake might actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise as he clearly had less of a race compared to the two British raiders and that has to be taken into account here. 

I expect the defending champion to be ridden more positively next month, where his jumping will be a lot better with more daylight at his fences. I think his eight-length beating of stablemate Chacun Pour Soi at last season’s Punchestown Festival is the strongest piece of form in this field, as that horse has proven to be unbeatable in the past over the trip on home soil. That performance was on decent ground as well, so he’s proven to be just as effective on a better surface. 

I am quite glad he was beaten last time, as that means he is better value now and his form figures between March-April reads three wins from three starts, so he predominantly saves his best for that time of the year. He stands stall based on RPR’s (overall) and the fact that he was the horse to give Mullins a first win in the Champion Chase last year, makes him a strong favourite in my book. BOOM. 

Mighty Potter 

  • Turners Novices’ Chase 
  • Best price: 11/8
  • Form: 1P1111

 

I’ll be honest. Mighty Potter did take me by surprise at the Dublin Racing Festival as I didn’t think for one second he would win in the manner he did. Elliott’s charge is now a perfect three-from-three fences and now has four Grade 1 wins to his name, quite remarkable for a horse who’s only ran eight times. In hindsight, I should have given him more credit for his three previous Grade 1 victories but after his most recent display, he deserves it all now. 

The six-year-old jumped and travelled so well en route to beating National Hunt Chase favourite Gaillard Du Mesnil who was back in third and his performance saw him shoot straight to the top of the ante-post market for the Turners. I am not sure he should be 11/8 but he is the right favourite. The reason I am not sure is his only career-blip was at Cheltenham last season in the Supreme but he has already established himself to be a better chaser, where his performances have got better and better with each start. 

He rates the most likeliest winner but he still has to prove he can do it at Cheltenham, something he didn’t do last year. He probably had no chance last season anyway, given how impressive Constitution Hill was, but he undoubtedly brings the best form in this sphere to the table. 

Stage Star or even Sir Gerhard might appear as the main dangers, who were impressive last time, but both need more to trouble Mighty Potter, who could be able to raise his game another notch if needed with more to come. He is tough to oppose. BOOM. 

Blazing Khal

  • Stayers’ Hurdle 
  • Best price: 7/2
  • Form: 11111

 

A late replacement in this top 10 after the sad news around Allaho was the Charles Byrnes-trained seven-year-old, Blazing Khal, who won a couple of Grade 2 events at Cheltenham in 2021. Injury afterwards saw him miss last season’s Cheltenham Festival and kept him off the track for 428 days, but he made a triumphant return at Navan in the Boyne Hurdle.

He was given a patient ride and moved stealthily into contention at the second last and while Meet And Greet did his best to lay down a challenge on the run-in, the unbeaten hurdler proved too strong in the end and he stormed to success, which evidently saw him shoot to the top of the ante-post betting for the Stayers’ Hurdle. 

I would hold fire with your bets about him for next month though, as connections have stated he could line up at Aintree instead if he doesn’t make Cheltenham. There is also the possibility he will suffer the “bounce-factor” if he does line-up, which can happen to horses on their second start back from an absence. 

He is undoubtedly a good horse, who has his best days to come, but I’m not sure I would want to be backing a horse at such short odds who has yet to dine at the highest level. He could blow this field away if the market is right, which is possible given its lack of strength in depth, but his two previous Cheltenham wins haven’t worked out well and I think he needs improvement to come out on top. BUST.

Galopin Des Champs

  • Cheltenham Gold Cup 
  • Best price: 13/8
  • Form: 11111

 

Galopin Des Champs has continued his dominance in the staying chase division and has yet to be beaten over fences when staying on his feet. He showed a lot of gears and power to see off his rivals in the Irish Gold Cup last time, though Fury Road would have finished closer without a mistake at the last fence. 

Since his unfortunate fall at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, where he would have bolted up, he has kept on winning though and the whole set-up of the Gold Cup next month, could actually unlock further improvement and see another personal best, which is going to be needed. Hopefully he can stay on his feet after the last fence this time as well. 

He is a solid favourite and it is hard to pick any faults in his chances to be honest. The only minor issue is his price, as the Gold Cup can be a gruelling test and secondly, if it turns into a war of attrition, his stamina beyond three-miles will be pushed to the limit. Still, he is expected by most to take the spoils, and I wouldn’t put anyone off him. 

I just get the impression he might find one or two too good on the day. I could be off my rocker, and he might bolt up, but with a King George winner, a Grand National winner, and two Gold Cup winners in the field, his task is by no means as straightforward as the betting suggests here. BUST. 

Lossiemouth 

  • Triumph Hurdle 
  • Best price: 7/4 
  • Form: 1112

 

Lossiemouth lost her unbeaten record in controversial fashion at the Dublin Racing Festival as one of her stablemates in the same ownership inconvenienced her at the wrong stage and her stablemate Gala Marceau, who was behind her in their previous clash, took full advantage of this and reversed the form. 

I think the pair should be a touch closer in the ante-post market but Lossiemouth remains the rightful favourite at 7/4. While others will now fancy their chances having seen her beaten, including some of the Brits, I thought she ran one hell of a race to get as close as she did to her stable companion in second. 

She was just about to make her move up the inside when Jourdefete made a mistake and stopped the favourite in her tracks, shuffling her to the rear of the field. She then had to race wide to challenge but was bumped twice, which wouldn’t have helped her either, yet she kept on strongly when the eventual winner got the first run on her, only to be beaten a couple of lengths at the finish. 

I think Gala Marceau will do well to confirm that form as Lossiemouth’s defeat of Comfort Zone is a strong piece of form and the stiffer test at Cheltenham is sure to play to her strengths. She is likely to get a clearer passage and the RPR’s suggest she is top of the pile. She could prove to be one of the best favourites of the week next month. BOOM.