We've taken a look at who you should side with and who you should oppose at the top of this year's markets.
Punters will be extremely busy over the next few days building their accas for the Cheltenham Festival, and as always there are a few favourites you should approach with caution. We take a look down the main favourites for the Festival, and decide if you can count on them in your Cheltenham acca.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Favourite: Shishkin 3/1
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
This is a pretty straightforward decision due to the uncertainty of which horses will take part in the race. Gordon Elliott claimed that Envoi Allen could still run in the Supreme, and if this was the case then his horse would be favourite for the Festival opener.
Even if Envoi Allen goes for the Ballymore this is a highly contested race, and cases can be made for various horses in the field. Shishkin has form in heavy conditions, but so have horses like Chantry House and Fiddlerontheroof. There have also been a few murmurings that Nicky Henderson would be keener on Chantry House than Shishkin if the ground was very testing.
Arkle Chase
Favourite: Notebook 3/1
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
Notebook isn’t a horse I would be trusting in any Cheltenham accas. He can act up on occasions and I think he has a few tricky contenders, especially if the ground is really testing.
Notebook would be one of the main favourites at the Festival I would be taking on.
Mares' Hurdle
Favourite: Benie Des Dieux 8/11
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
There’s no real pleasure in tipping 8/11 shots, but if you were looking to build a “Cheltenham Bankers” acca (nothing’s a banker) then Benie Des Dieux should be included.
Willie Mullins’ horse was the certain winner of this race last year before falling, costing punters thousands. However, I wouldn’t be concerned with her jumping at all and she has won previously at the track.
Benie Des Dieux was last seen at Gowran Park in January where she demolished a decent enough field. Her main competition in the race will be Honeysuckle who comes into the race after narrowly beating Darver Star in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
National Hunt Chase
Favourite: Carefully Selected 7/4
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
This will be a slightly controversial selection as plenty of pundits/tipsters have written off Carefully Selected due to his jumping. However, there was only one concern in his last outing at Navan and he has yet to finish outside the top three since debuting in 2017.
The race could cut up quite a lot, and with so many horses still left in, there’s not one I think can beat Carefully Selected. Obviously he could jump a whole lot better, but that’s why this horse is 7/4 not odds-on.
Given the rest of the field and the horse’s record, I’m very keen to boost the acca price with Carefully Selected.
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
Favourite: Envoi Allen 7/4
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
If Envoi Allen runs in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle then punters should be safe to include him in any favourite accas.
The fact that plenty of other horses have avoided taking the six-year-old on in the Ballymore speaks volumes. Gordon Elliott’s horse is unbeaten and has put away quite a few good horses on the way including Blue Sari, Thyme Hill, Abacadabras and Elixir D’ainay.
RSA Chase
Favourite: Champ 3/1
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
The three horses at the top of the market all have outstanding claims to win the RSA Chase, and there are much easier favourites to bank on in the Festival.
Champ fell last time out which has caused plenty of people to doubt the credentials of Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old. Personally I’m not too concerned about that fall, my concerns surround Minella Indo and Copperhead. Both have excellent chances of winning the RSA.
Champion Chase
Favourite: Altior 2/1
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
This is a race where you need to ignore your heart. I would love Altior to win, and actually think he will, but like the RSA Chase there are plenty of easier favourites to back at the Festival.
I don’t really get the argument that Altior has declined massively, he’s lost once since 2015 which was when stepping up in trip against a horse which loves Ascot, and that race was Cyrname’s Gold Cup.
Altior showed the classic turn of foot to win next time out at Newbury. He’ll be very hard to beat, but does have much better competition than his last Festival win. Defi Du Seuil especially is a horse to be respected, which is why Altior is being left out of my Festival acca.
Cross Country Chase
Favourite: Tiger Roll 6/5
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
This is a two-horse race, and despite Easysland having a very good French record, I think he’s being hyped up as pundits feel the need to look for something to take on Tiger Roll.
Tiger Roll came into the Festival in a lot better shape last season. However, the fact that Might Bite is the third-favourite in the race just shows how weak the competition is. Tiger Roll just needs to beat Easysland, and then it’s onto the Grand National.
Champion Bumper
Favourite: Appreciate It 13/8
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
Appreciate It is the main favourite I would be looking to take on at the Festival. I must be missing something, but I don’t get how this horse is 13/8 to win the Champion Bumper.
The horse has obviously improved since finishing third at Fairyhouse earlier in the year, but hasn’t been running against the likes of Queens Brook and Eskylane since.
Ryanair Chase
Favourite: A Plus Tard 9/4
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
This is another which will get plenty of people disagreeing, mainly due to a strange loyalty punters have to Min. Min’s record has obviously been dented by Altior over the years, but the form over the last year or so hasn’t been that impressive.
He lost to Un De Sceaux at Punchestown last April which isn’t the form of a Ryanair winner, and has since finished runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown. Chacun Pour Soi was obviously put away by A Plus Tard the run before.
Min will be in the top three, but I can’t see him beating A Plus Tard. Nothing else in the race really concerns me.
Stayers' Hurdle
Favourite: Paisley Park 4/6
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: Yes
This is the banker of the festival for me, and it’s very hard to build a reason to doubt Paisley Park. He does have flat spots in races which was shown at Cheltenham last season, but he always gets the job done.
Benie Des Dieux won’t run here and the likes of Summerville Boy, Penhill and City Island simply can’t beat Paisley Park. If you were looking for another bet in the race, than Emitom without Paisley Park would be my selection.
Mares Novices' Hurdle
Favourite: Minella Melody 5/2
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
There are just too many uncertainties in the race to be backing a 5/2 shot. If you listen to various Cheltenham previews, even Mullins’ connections can’t split their runners.
Minella Melody could turn out to be a cracking type, but there are also good cases for Floressa and Colreevy, so avoid this one in accas.
Triumph Hurdle
Favourite: Solo 10/3
Should it be included in the Cheltenham acca: No
Solo’s win is possibly one of the biggest betting overreactions of the year. Solo beat Fujimoto Flyer who didn’t run its race, and not much else of note finished in behind.
Similar to Minella Melody, this could be a cracking horse but with Goshen and Allmankind in the race I wouldn’t be putting Solo in any accas. There will be so much pace in this and it’s tricky to work out how the race will pan out.
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