R2C's Race Analysis of Cheltenham Day 1 & 2 Following Confirmations

It’s Thursday afternoon and confirmations are in for the opening two days of next week’s Cheltenham Festival. There’s still plenty of water to go under the bridge but the general picture is becoming clearer each day, with one or two obvious exceptions.

Here, I look at the markets for Tuesday and Wednesday’s action, discussing the key runners and how races may pan out at the declaration stage. Without further ado, I’m just going to get straight into it – starting with Old Park Star in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

OLD PARK STAR THE ONE TO BEAT

Selected as my best bet of the entire meeting just a few weeks ago, I’m still really sweet on his chances of giving trainer Nicky Henderson a sixth win in the race. He is the right favourite on all known form and he looks very much in the Altior mould to me.

News broke on Thursday afternoon that Mighty Park will run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and you simply have to respect him. We’ve only seen him the once but he’s been the talk of the Preview Night circuit and the vibes are very, very strong.

Idaho Sun will miss the race after suffering a setback while there’s now surely a chance that Talk The Talk will switch to the Turners. Joseph O’Brien has always claimed that the Supreme is his race but the owners are reportedly keen on stepping up in trip.

There’s some 5/2 knocking about for Old Park Star and that seems a fair enough price to me. He mightn’t be the next Constitution Hill or Shishkin but he sets a high standard and the rest have got to step up to his level.

PUNTERS LATCH ONTO KOPEK DES BORDES

It sounds like Kopek Des Bordes is flying at home, with reports of a glowing schooling session backed up by strong support in the betting over the past few days. He’s a very talented animal and he could be good enough to defy the ‘one run’ trend in the Arkle.

Lulamba didn’t set the world on fire in the early stages of the Game Spirit Chase and I’d rather be in the Kopek Des Bordes camp. He handled Cheltenham well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year and he’s always looked like a proper chasing type.

The likes of Romeo Coolio and Kargese had hard races at the Dublin Racing Festival and I’d be keen enough to oppose both here. Kopek Des Bordes looks like a proper two-miler and he could just turn out to be too quick for his rivals in this race.

Connections have never been afraid to speak about just how regarded this horse is and I’m expecting a huge run. If Willie Mullins and Paul Townend are happy, that’s enough for me and he’d be the one to beat for me if he brings his A-game.

WILL SHE? WON’T SHE?

The exchanges seem to be suggesting that Lossiemouth will take her chance in the 2026 Champion Hurdle but I won’t fully believe it until she’s declared on Sunday morning. If she does, she could easily end up going off as a well fancied favourite.

The New Lion currently heads the market but he’s almost there by default if we’re being completely honest. Golden Ace picked up the pieces last season and followed up in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle but she wouldn’t be for me if truth be told.

With nicer ground forecast, you could see Lossiemouth reversing the Irish Champion Hurdle form with Brighterdaysahead. I’m not sure I buy into the view that Gordon Elliott’s mare dislikes Cheltenham but she needs to prove herself next week.

For me, the 11/4 NRNB available for Lossiemouth is the way to go. She’ll only run in the race if she’s working well so if she does turn up here, you’d have to imagine she will be considerably shorter – especially if Mullins wins the Supreme and/or the Arkle.

TURNERS LOOKS WIDE OPEN

You could make a case for about five or six in the Turners and Skylight Hustle is the one that I’ve been warming to in recent days. I like the fact that connections decided to skip the Dublin Racing Festival and it sounds like this race has always been the target.

Assistant trainer Busty Amond has been positive on his chances at several previews and it’ll be interesting to see whether Jack Kennedy chooses Skylight Hustle or Ballyfad – both of which have form that ties in with Talk The Talk.

I’d imagine the Joseph O’Brien runner will be popular with punters if declared for this race and you can see the angle. He’s a Grade 1 winner and might even have been a dual winner had he stayed on his feet at Christmas.

While Mighty Park goes for the Supreme, Willie Mullins has a reasonable hand and King Rasko Grey – a gelding, not a mare in foal – could be his main dart. Looking at the rest of the market, the likes of I’ll Sort That and Act Of Innocence cannot be discounted either.

NO STRONG FANCY IN BROWN ADVISORY

Another tough race to dissect, the Brown Advisory could be one of the highlights of the week. We had a clear favourite in Final Demand going into the Dublin Racing Festival but he blotted his copybook and now has something to prove.

The ground seems to be going against The Big Westerner but it will bring Koktail Divin into the mix and he could be Henry de Bromhead’s best chance in the race. Will he stay the trip? Many have their doubts, but a nicer surface will give him a squeak.

I’m a huge fan of Wendigo and he’ll be bang there if there is a strong pace to aim at. You would worry about him if it turns into a sprint but if the race is a stamina test up the hill, then he may well be finishing best of all.

The Elliott runners are of real interest – I’ve always thought of Romeo Coolio as a stayer while Western Fold was a huge eyecatcher at Leopardstown the last day. If the former runs here and Jack Kennedy rides, he’d be my tentative selection.

BEST OF THE REST

There are a few in the handicaps that stand out for me – and one or two are still available at nice prices. Joseph O’Brien has a great record in the Fred Winter and it sounds like Glen To Glen (12/1) is the preferred option from that stable at this stage.

Iceberg Theory can go well for the Paul Nolan team in the National Hunt Chase at 12/1 while Jump Allen appears to have the profile for the Cup Handicap Hurdle – though it is important to back him NRNB as he might miss the cut.

I’m keen on Favori De Champdou in the Cross Country Chase and I think he’s the one to beat while another Gigginstown House Stud horse Charismatic Kid can go well at a huge price in the Champion Bumper.