Ginger Joe’s Five Horses to Forgive for the Cheltenham Festival

LOSSIEMOUTH

Best odds of 14/5 at AK Bets while publishing.

Lossiemouth beat Brighterdaysahead by a length in the Grade 1 December Hurdle at Leopardstown, although her rival was making her seasonal debut that day. The form was reversed next time in the Irish Champion Hurdle, where Brighterdaysahead produced a strong performance to beat Lossiemouth comfortably by over three lengths.

That result seems to have dampened punters’ enthusiasm for Lossiemouth heading into the Cheltenham Festival, but I’m not overly concerned about it myself. At Cheltenham, Lossiemouth is unbeaten in four starts, producing some outstanding performances with two wins over two miles and two over two and a half miles, clearly showing a real liking for the track.

She travels powerfully around Cheltenham, which allows her to use that turn of foot up the hill whether the race is run over two miles or further. Time and time again she has shown how well she handles the track, and she arguably looks even better there than anywhere else.

The same can’t really be said for Brighterdaysahead though, who has been beaten twice at Cheltenham. It could simply be a case of horses for courses here, and if that proves to be the case, Lossiemouth has every chance of bouncing back and winning the Champion Hurdle.

BALLYFAD

Best odds of 7/1 at William Hill while publishing.

The opening race on day one is the Turners Novices’ Hurdle over 2m4f, and while it looks a fairly open contest, there’s plenty of quality in the field. Ballyfad is one that was beaten last time out, but I still think he comes into this race with a very strong chance when you look into the form.

He ran in the Grade 1 two mile novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, where he was beaten by a whisker, with Talk The Talk getting up right on the line. That run will turn out to be big form, and the fact Ballyfad was just outpaced late on suggests this step up to 2m4f in the Turners could suit him really well.

He may get a slightly different ride this time, but he’s a very straightforward horse who travels and jumps well. If he improves for the extra distance which I think he will, then it will take a very good horse to beat him.

HONESTY POLICY

Best odds of 5/1 at AK Bets while publishing.

Honesty Policy is a seriously impressive six-year-old by Jukebox Jury and he still looks open to a huge amount of improvement. Last season he made his rules debut on January 5th in a maiden hurdle, and by April 5th he had developed into a Grade 1 winner, beating Regents Stroll at Aintree in a hugely impressive performance.

The fact he was able to progress so quickly in such a short three-month period was remarkable and the sort of rate of improvement you rarely see. He then backed that up with another strong run when finishing just half a length behind Jasmin De Vaux at Punchestown, which looks like very solid form, especially for such an inexperienced horse.

This season he has had just one start so far, finishing a close third behind Strong Leader and Impose Toi in a Grade 1 where both of those rivals had the benefit of race fitness. Honesty Policy stayed on strongly that day, and the performance suggested there is still plenty more to come.

Given the rate of improvement he has already shown, it’s fair to expect he could take another step forward from that seasonal debut. With that in mind, he has to be taken seriously here despite being beaten last time out.

MACHO MAN

Best odds of 8/1 at bet365 while publishing.

The Triumph Hurdle has been blown wide open with Narciso Has sidelined for the rest of the season, but there are still plenty of smart juveniles in the lineup. Proactif was very impressive when winning at Fairyhouse last time out, putting in a professional and straightforward performance that showed plenty of quality. However, the runner up Macho Man makes plenty of appeal to me.

He finished just under three lengths behind Proactif that day, but he did quite a lot wrong during the race, which actually gives me more optimism about his chances going forward. He looked green throughout, taking a while to settle, having a good look around, and not always jumping fluently. Despite that, he still managed to stay on well and finish as close as he did.

The fact he achieved that while still learning suggests there is plenty of improvement to come, and with that run under his belt he could have a big chance at Cheltenham. He looks a potentially very smart juvenile and he could potentially reverse that form.

GAELIC WARRIOR

Best odds of 4/1 at William Hill while publishing.

The King George Chase at Kempton was an absolute classic this year, with a four-way finish that required a photo to separate them. The Jukebox Man got his head in front, but there is a strong case to be made that Gaelic Warrior was slightly unlucky, with Paul Townend making a small error with the whip while trying to challenge up the inside.

That said, Gaelic Warrior looks to have a huge chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and the extra two furlongs could easily bring out even more improvement. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first two home in the King George ended up fighting out the finish again at Cheltenham.

With the news that Galopin Des Champs is out for the season, there is another significant positive too, with Paul Townend now very likely to take the ride on Gaelic Warrior. He was only narrowly beaten last time, and there is every chance he could reverse that form at the Festival, and I think he will be bang there at the finish.

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