Red Sox Next Manager Odds: Who Could Replace Alex Cora After Boston's Sluggish Start?
The Boston Red Sox fired Alex Cora last week after a slow start to the season, along with a large portion of the staff. Who might take over at Fenway Park in the early going? Peter Alexis reviews the latest Red Sox Next Manager odds as of May 4th.
Peter Alexis - May 4, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadRed Sox Next Manager Odds: Will Chad Tracy Hold on to Interim Job?
The Red Sox managerial market is open again after Boston fired Alex Cora and five coaches following a 10-17 start, turning one of baseball’s steadiest dugouts into a sudden midseason vacancy. The first thing to note with this Kalshi board is that it is a low-volume market, with only about $11,000 traded in the screenshot, so the prices can move sharply on rumor and thin action rather than deep conviction.
That makes the current odds more about early sentiment than anything close to a final read. Chad Tracy leads at 42%, with David Ross at 18% and Andrew Bailey at 14%, which suggests bettors are leaning toward Boston either staying in-house with the interim option or pivoting to a recognizable former manager if ownership decides to make a bigger move later.
Bet on the Next Red Sox Manager with Kalshi Here
Red Sox Next Manager Odds
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Chad Tracy | 42% |
David Ross | 18% |
Andrew Bailey | 14% |
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Red Sox Next Manager Odds Breakdown
Chad Tracy — 42% Chance Bet on Red Sox Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Tracy is the favorite because he already has the chair. Boston promoted him from Triple-A Worcester immediately after the Cora firing, and Craig Breslow publicly framed the move as a “fresh start.” Tracy has managed Worcester since 2022, has been in the Red Sox system for several years, and gives the club the easiest short-term continuity play while it figures out whether this is just an interim bridge or something more lasting.
In a market this thin, the simple fact that he is already in the building and already doing the job is enough to put him on top.
David Ross — 18% Chance Bet on Red Sox Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Ross is the outside name with the cleanest prior managerial résumé. He managed the Cubs from 2020 through 2023, was widely respected for his leadership style, and took Chicago to the postseason in 2020 before being replaced when the Cubs hired Craig Counsell.
That background makes him a sensible speculative candidate for a club that might want a more established voice than Tracy, but the current price also reflects that there has not been much hard reporting tying him directly to Boston yet. In other words, the market knows who he is and knows he is viable, but it is still mostly guessing on fit.
Andrew Bailey — 14% Chance Bet on Red Sox Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Bailey is the interesting internal dark horse. He is already Boston’s pitching coach, was hired after a strong run with the Giants’ staff, and remained with the organization even as several other coaches were dismissed. His background is strong on the pitching side, and the Red Sox originally brought him in after his San Francisco staffs ranked among MLB’s better groups in ERA, home-run prevention, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The reason he is not higher is experience: Bailey has clear coaching credibility, but jumping from pitching coach to full-time manager in this situation would still be a bigger leap than simply riding with Tracy or hiring a former dugout boss like Ross.
Red Sox Next Manager Outlook
Overall, this board looks more like an early reaction market than a settled forecast. Tracy leads because he is already the interim manager, Ross is the recognizable outside name, and Bailey is the internal staffer with enough stature to attract speculative money. With this little volume behind the prices, any real reporting around Boston’s next step could move the market quickly.
MLB ODDS
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