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NBA MVP Odds Update: Nikola Jokic Takes the Lead In Last Week of Season

With the last week of the NBA regular season underway, it seems Nikola Jokic is back in the lead for the NBA regular season MVP award. Ryan Kirskey breaks down the odds for the NBA MVP award.
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NBA MVP Odds Update: Jokic Takes the Lead In Last Week of Season

With the last week of the NBA regular season underway, it seems Nikola Jokic is back in the lead for the NBA regular season MVP award. Will Jokic take home the hardware or will Joel Embiid put on a great last-minute effort to take home the hardware?

NBA Regular Season MVP Winner Odds

Devin Booker NBA MVP Odds: (+15000Previous: Unranked) (Bet $100 to Win $15000)

With just nine days left in the regular season, Booker gets a long-overdue slot on this list. Beginning with the Chris Paul thumb injury in mid-February and continuing even after Paul came back last week, Booker has been playing on another level and is one of the most efficient and clutch players in the NBA.

Over the last five games, Booker averages 33 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, all while shooting over 50% from the field and 37% from three. But for as good as he has been for a long stretch of the season, it's his performance in defined clutch situations that sets him apart.

On the year, Booker shoots 46.1% from the floor and 37.6% from three. But in clutch situations - defined as the last five minutes of a game when a team is leading or trailing by five or fewer points - Booker's shooting vaults up to 56% from the floor and 40.9% from three. The Suns have played an abnormally large number of close games this year, and Booker's performance in those moments is a major reason they have the league's best record.

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Luka Doncic NBA MVP Odds: (+15000, Previous: +5000) (Bet $100 to Win $15000)

Don't look now, but here come the revamped Mavericks who are surging at the right time and playing their best defense of the entire season. Dallas is now third in the Western Conference and looks likely to hold on to first-round home-court advantage.

Doncic's performance in the Mavericks' latest 7-3 stretch is just straight silly. He is doing his typical thing averaging 29 points, over eight rebounds, and over eight assists per game. But he is also shooting 48% from the floor and almost 42% on close to 10 three-pointers per game.

Doncic's reward this year is going to be in the form of team success, as he is out of the MVP race, but with performances like these, you know a future MVP is coming. If Doncic and Nikola Jokic end up matched up in the first round of the playoffs (which is the current draw), it will be must-see TV as the two young, current and future faces of the NBA square off.

Giannis Antetokuonmpo NBA MVP Odds: (+650, Previous: +1000) (Bet $100 to Win $650)

The Greek Freak is doing everything in his power to make sure we don't forget about him for the MVP award. The results have showed in the odds lately as he moved up to +650 this week after sitting around +1000 to +1500 for several weeks.

All he has done in his last four games is average 38 points, 13 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.3 blocks while shooting 63% from the floor. He is almost single-handedly carrying the Bucks up the standings in the East and they now sit just a half-game out of first with six games left. Over those four games, his advanced stats sit at 37% usage, a 31.4% assist rate, and a 24% defensive rebound rate. He is simply touching the ball in some meaningful way every trip down the floor.

We have looked at this number before, but it's crazy to think that Giannis' win shares/48 minutes this season (.291) is better than 13 of the MVP winners since the year 2000 and he is not going to finish in the top two in voting for the award. But if there were ever any doubters that Giannis has just as much claim to the trophy this year than these next two guys.

Joel Embiid NBA MVP Odds: (+200, Previous: -155) (Bet $100 to Win $200)

The title of last week's NBA MVP column stated that the MVP award was Embiid's to lose over the last two weeks. Well, he might have lost it, not because of his personal performance, but rather because of his team's results.

Losers of three straight including their last game to the tanking Pistons, the 76ers now find themselves down to fourth in the East. They are three games out of first with just six games to play. Meanwhile, Embiid's primary competition for the award (Giannis and Jokic) have seen their teams climb in the standings. Embiid averaged 34.4 points and 15 rebounds per game in the three-game skid. James Harden also played well on offense, but they allowed 111 points per game to their opponents, almost five points more than their season average.

In Embiid's last six games, he is going to face Cleveland without Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen, Charlotte, Detroit again, and Indiana twice. Indiana, Detroit, and Charlotte are all in the bottom-nine in the NBA in defensive rating this season and Detroit and Charlotte are bottom-four rebounding teams. Every game is winnable for the 76ers from this point forward, and Embiid is going to need to channel his inner 76ers-era Wilt Chamberlain to reclaim the award.

Nikola Jokic NBA MVP Odds: (-185, Previous: +170) (Bet $185 to Win $100)

What an incredible swap in the MVP voting odds this late in the game, but the streaking Nuggets combined with Jokic's traditional and advanced stats make it hard to argue against it. The Nuggets now sit tied for fifth in the West, and three of their remaining five games are against the struggling Lakers and Spurs.

Rivaling Giannis in the last four games, Jokic is putting up his own legendary numbers. He averages 31.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 2.3 steals plus an astounding 75% shooting from the floor in the last four games. His usage rate is 30% and his assist rate is 35%, which means in their recent streak, Jokic is involved in 75% of the Nuggets' buckets when he plays.

You can't find an advanced statistic this season where Jokic is not the leader. He is out front in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, WS/48, Plus-Minus, VORP, and Offensive Rating (30+ minutes per game). How many games would the Nuggets win if they did not have Jokic in addition to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter this season? Ten, maybe?

If the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves tonight, they will avoid the play-in tournament and be right in the mix for home court in the first round. It now looks like it is going to be back-to-back awards for the big man.

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NBA MVP ODDS

*Odds as of March 29, 2022*

OddsPlayer
+300Joel Embiid
-300Nikola Jokic
+800Giannis Anteokoumpo

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Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.

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