2025 Women's March Madness Preview, Odds: Bracket Breakdown, Paths to Championship for Women's NCAA Tournament

The 2025 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament is finally here! With dominating, star-studded teams headlining the field, let’s talk through the top teams’ paths to the championship. How did the seeding play out and what matchups are bound for greatness? Which teams were “disrespected” and can they overcome tough regions?

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2025 Women's NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown

Spokane 1 Region – Top Seed: UCLA Bruins (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Earning the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in program history, the UCLA Bruins have showcased exceptional play with a 30-2 record. Despite the seed and record, the Bruins aren’t the top favorite to win the tournament. It has less to do with their bracket and more to do with concerns around their strength of schedule being underwhelming compared to other top seeds. That concern has marred their path to the championship, making the Bruins a team commonly missing from the Final Four. 

The Bruins’ success has centered around Lauren Betts, averaging nearly 20 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game with a 63.4 field goal percentage. Yet, concerns linger about the consistency of their guard play, which has been underwhelming at times.

Aside from the questionable strength of schedule and over-reliance on Betts, the Bruins’ bracket is rough, oddly enough perhaps the toughest bracket. They face a potential Sweet 16 clash against either 5-seed Ole Miss or 4-seed Baylor. Between the two teams, Ole Miss presents an intriguing matchup. If they can beat Baylor in the second round, UCLA could be on upset alert in the Sweet 16. If they manage to make it to the Elite 8, they’d likely face 2-seed NC State or 3-seed LSU.

LSU might have warranted a 2-seed if not for health issues, and Coach Kim Mulkey has already confirmed both Flau’Jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow are set to return. NC State may not have one of the flashier storylines of the tournament, but make no mistake - they are experienced, they’ve been here before and their push for the Final 4 is just as strong as other top seeds with elite guard play from Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers.

Birmingham 2 Region – Top Seed: South Carolina Gamecocks (+240) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

As the reigning national champions, the South Carolina Gamecocks enter the tournament with a target on their backs and with the top odds to win the tournament, despite not getting the No. 1 overall seed. Head Coach Dawn Staley was vocally frustrated, but the seeding may have worked in her favor. The committee cited a significant 29-point loss to UConn as a factor, emphasizing the importance of competitiveness in losses. Staley felt their strength of schedule warranted respect. 

Good news for Staley - South Carolina’s bracket appears relatively navigable, with a clear path to the Final Four. A potential Sweet 16 matchup against 4-seed Maryland could rekindle past tournament rivalries. However, expect the Gamecocks to advance and face either 2-seed Duke or 3-seed North Carolina in the Elite 8.

Duke’s presence does add intrigue to this region. The Blue Devils’ ACC tournament earned significant respect, defeating both Notre Dame and NC State. Duke’s team is fairly well-rounded compared to a team like the aforementioned Bruins with a clear dominating player. However, if one player gets hot, they could offer a challenge for South Carolina. 

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Birmingham 3 Region – Top Seed: Texas Longhorns (+750) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Texas’s earned a Number 1 seed, anchored by sophomore forward Madison Booker, who leads the team with 16.2 points per game and shooting 45.9% from the field. Her versatility and ability to fill up the stat sheet have been pivotal in the Longhorns’ success. However, Texas tends to have low-scoring games, a strategy that may be tested against high-octane offenses in their tournament.

The Longhorns’ path includes potential early tests, with a Sweet 16 matchup against 4-seed Ohio State or 5-seed Tennessee, with Tennessee being perhaps the most intriguing matchup. The Elite 8 could pit Texas against 2-seed TCU or 3-seed Notre Dame and that’s where things get wildly interesting!

The Birmingham region could be the most exciting bracket of the conference. The Longhorns would face a potential Elite 8 all-Texas showdown with TCU - a TCU team that has a big storyline for Hailey Van Lith. TCU’s resurgence is largely credited to Van Lith, who transferred from LSU after a challenging 2023 season with Tigers, where she never quite found her footing. At TCU, Van Lith has found redemption, averaging 17.9 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game, leading the Horned Frogs to a 31-3 record and both Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles.

The bracket also presents a potential second-round matchup between TCU and Louisville, Van Lith’s other former team. We’ve got Van Lith’s familiarity with Louisville’s system, combined with Louisville Coach Jeff Walz’s knowledge of Van Lith’s play-style, adding layers of strategy and motivation in the matchup.

The other potential matchup for Texas against Notre Dame further complicates the Longhorns’ path. The Fighting Irish have been to the Sweet 16 three years in a row and could break through this year, feeling disrespected about their seeding, with their late-season slump dropping them from what should’ve been a Number 1 seed. Combine disrespect on seeding with an electric offense, featuring Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles, and Notre Dame could sail out of this bracket.

Spokane 4 Region – Top Seed: USC Trojans (+800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Despite securing a 1-seed, Head Coach Lindsay Gottlieb expressed frustration with the team’s placement as the fourth 1-seed, despite a stellar 28-3 record. USC faces a potential Sweet 16 matchup against 4-seed Kentucky or 5-seed Kansas State. The Elite 8 could see a rematch with 2-seed UConn - who ended USC’s tournament run last season in the Elite 8 - or 3-seed Oklahoma.

To be honest… I understand the frustration. They won the Big 10 regular season title. They lost the Big 10 tournament to top overall seed UCLA by just five points, with their only other losses to Notre Dame and Iowa, and their reward is UConn and Paige Bueckers. 

Sophomore guard JuJu Watkins has been instrumental in USC’s success this season, and we’ve seen this matchup before. In their December 21, 2024, game against UConn, Watkins delivered a stellar performance, contributing 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and three blocks. USC edged out UConn with a 72-70 victory. However, Azzi Fudd had recently returned from a knee sprain and played just eight minutes with zero points in that game. With UConn at full health, this is a brand new matchup.

Kentucky also presents a formidable challenge in the Sweet 16 before USC would get to UConn. Their balanced offense and tenacious defense could pose problems for USC, especially if the Trojans are looking ahead to the potential rematch with UConn. Kentucky’s ability to capitalize on opponents’ lapses makes them a credible threat in this bracket.