Santa Clara NCAA Tournament Odds: Will Broncos Make First NCAA Tournament Since 1996?
The Santa Clara Broncos are into the West Coast Conference Tournament semifinals tonight against Saint Mary's, and are clinging on to a spot in the NCAA Tournament bubble. Will they still get in with a loss tonight? Peter Alexis breaks down the Santa Clara NCAA Tournament Odds as of Monday, March 9th.
Peter Alexis - March 9, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadSanta Clara NCAA Tournament Odds: Do Broncos Need to Beat Saint Mary's in WCC Tournament Semifinals on Monday Night to Make March Madness?
Santa Clara has positioned itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and the Broncos are doing everything they can to turn the West Coast Conference into a three-bid league for the first time since 2022. Entering the final stages of the conference tournament, Santa Clara sits at 25-7 overall and continues to build a compelling at-large résumé.
Oddsmakers still see uncertainty surrounding the Broncos’ fate. Current betting markets list Santa Clara to make the NCAA Tournament at -140, while the No side sits at +110, reflecting the reality that their fate could hinge on what happens in the final rounds of the WCC Tournament and across other conference tournaments nationwide.
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Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Odds
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, March 9th, 2026
- Time: 11:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
Click here for complete Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Odds
Santa Clara NCAA Tournament Odds
Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Yes | -140 | 58.3% |
No | +110 | 47.6% |
Santa Clara Analytics Profile
From an analytics perspective, Santa Clara’s résumé stacks up surprisingly well against other bubble teams. The Broncos sit No. 42 in the NET rankings and No. 37 in KenPom, while also ranking 41st in Strength of Record and KPI, metrics that bracket committees regularly weigh when evaluating bubble candidates.
The biggest weakness on the profile is their Quadrant 1 record (1-5). While the Broncos have avoided damaging losses and consistently handled weaker opponents, their lack of high-end wins could become a talking point for the selection committee. Bubble teams with multiple Quad 1 victories often get the nod over teams with strong metrics but limited marquee results.
WCC Tournament Results So Far
Santa Clara helped its case significantly with a 76-68 win over Pacific in the WCC Tournament quarterfinals, keeping its season alive and adding another quality win to its résumé.
Freshman Allen Graves provided a huge spark off the bench with 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while Christian Hammond (14 points) and Elijah Mahi (13 points, 11 rebounds) delivered strong complementary performances. The Broncos also received key minutes from Sash Gavalyugov, who added 11 points and six assists in a balanced offensive effort.
Momentum like this can matter for bubble teams. The selection committee often rewards programs that finish the season strong, and Santa Clara’s recent form suggests they are playing their best basketball at the right time.
The Conference Tournament Path
Santa Clara’s clearest path to the tournament remains simple: win the West Coast Conference Tournament and claim the automatic bid.
To do that, the Broncos would likely need to defeat Saint Mary’s in the semifinal and Gonzaga in the championship, two of the conference’s perennial powers. That would instantly erase any bubble anxiety and guarantee Santa Clara its first NCAA Tournament appearance in decades.
Even one additional win over Saint Mary’s could dramatically strengthen the Broncos’ résumé and remove much of the uncertainty surrounding their at-large chances. If they lose to Saint Mary's tonight, they will await their fate and hope there isn't other bid-stealing mid-majors in other conferences.
Projected Seed and NCAA Tournament Outlook
Most major bracket projections already have Santa Clara safely inside the field, typically landing around a No. 11 seed. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Broncos in the projected field even before their latest win, and their tournament résumé has only improved since.
If Santa Clara does receive an at-large bid, they could become a dangerous lower seed in March. Their strong efficiency metrics and balanced scoring attack make them the type of team capable of pulling off an early-round upset.
For now, the Broncos remain firmly on the bubble, but the odds and projections suggest they are trending toward their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996.
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