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2023 NFL Draft Odds: Texans, Colts Seen as Early Favorites to Trade for No. 1 Pick

The 2023 NFL Draft is still a ways away, but so much excitement is beginning to build. Kyle Newman is here to break down the NFL Draft odds, specifically narrowing in on the No. 1 pick.
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2023 NFL Draft Odds: Texans, Colts Seen as Early Favorites to Trade for No. 1 Pick

Chicago Bears General Manager Ryan Poles made it clear today that the team plans to go forward with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. That puts the No. 1 pick in the draft on the market. Who could land the pick? The books believe it’s a tossup between the Texans and Colts.

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2023 NFL Draft Odds

The Texans are the early favorites at +240, or an implied 29.4% chance. However, that’s just a slight edge on the Colts, who are given +275 odds, or an implied 26.7%. While the Texans and Colts are the clear favorites, this market is crowded with five other teams given at least a 10% chance.

The Raiders, at +400, or an implied 20% chance, are a real threat to trade for the No.1 overall pick. The Panthers and Falcons are both given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to move up. Even the Jets are given +800 odds, or an implied 11.1% chance to move up to No. 1 in their quest for a franchise quarterback.

There’s also the possibility that the Bears hold onto the pick. Chicago is given +450 odds, or an implied 18.2% chance to hold onto the pick. Those odds are fourth best on the market. Only the Raiders, Colts, and Texans have a better chance of picking first.

It’s tough to figure out what the Bears are going to do here. The quarterback class this year isn’t the strongest, with all of them deeply flawed. Bryce Young is the clear top QB, but his size is nearly unprecedented. Justin Fields has also proven that he can be an above-average quarterback in this league.

Perhaps a few weapons around Fields could turn him into an elite QB. It's smart for the Bears to trade that pick, given the fact that they can add other players around Fields with later picks.

Only two signal callers under 6 feet tall have previously gone in the first round, Kyler Murray and Davey O’Brien. If teams don’t feel comfortable with his size, can the Bears land the kind of package it’d take to move the pick? As the combine begins, the books believe one of the Colts, Texans, and Raiders would be willing to do so.

Team to Have the First Overall Pick Odds

TeamOddsImplied Chance
Texans+24029.4%
Colts+27526.7%
Raiders+40020%
Bears+45018.2%
Panthers+60014.3%
Falcons+60014.3%
Jets+80011.1%
Commanders+10009.1%
Bucs+12007.7%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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