College Football Playoff Predictions, Projections: Which Teams Will Make the 12-Team Field?

If your team was on the bubble to make the College Football Playoff heading into Week 13, the chances are that they lost, and that bubble burst. Colorado, Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU and Texas A&M all lost, opening the door for some teams that were likely going to be on the outside looking in.

On the other side of that coin, teams like SMU and Arizona State had big weekends and cemented their status as likely CFP teams in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

Still, we have rivalry week coming up and there are sure to be more upsets on the horizon. Georgia still needs to get past a strong Georgia Tech team, Texas still has a date with the Aggies and there are never any guarantees when Ohio State takes on Michigan.

With all that said, we take a look at our latest College Football Playoff predictions and projections following a wild Week 13.

Looking for betting splits from these games and others? Maybe you want a little more action on this game and want to explore our EV tool? Sign up for oddschecker+ NOW and get your first week free!

College Football National Championship Odds

College Football Playoff Predictions - Top-12 Seed Projections

1. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)

Right now, as things stand, this top spot is occupied by Oregon. However, after seeing how the Buckeyes handled Indiana and had a chance to beat this Oregon team at Autzen Stadium earlier in the year, I'm predicting OSU will come out on top in the Big Ten title game and take the top seed. Will Howard is playing good football, distributing the ball to his wealth of talent on the outside and the Buckeye defense is one of the best units in college football. OSU vs Oregon in Indy ends in a win for Ohio State as they lock up the top seed in the College Football Playoffs.

2. Georgia (SEC Champion)

There isn't a team in the country that has played a schedule as difficult as the Georgia Bulldogs and still they enter rivalry week with just two losses on the season. They're on track to meet Texas in the SEC title game right now, and we've already seen how that one plays out. There's no guarantee that Texas even gets past Texas A&M this weekend, which means we'd see Georgia ve. Tennessee in the conference championship. Either way, Georgia will likely meet up with a team they've already beaten in Atlanta and a win will give them the No. 2 seed and a bye.

3. SMU (ACC Champion)

Find me the person who told you before the season that SMU would be the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff and I'll find you a liar. Still, here we are with the Mustangs in prime position to get a first-round bye in their first season in the Power 5. Currently, Clemson is scheduled to be their opponent in the ACC title game, but Miami controls its own destiny and a win over Syracuse locks them into the championship game. It's kind of irrelevant who SMU faces because they are better than both Clemson and Miami. Between QB Kevin Jennings and RB Brashard Smith, this team is poised for a big win that locks them into the No. 3 seed.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion)

Is Boise State the fourth-best team in the country? Probably not. However, the way the CFP is set up gives the four highest-rated conference champs a first-round bye. So, while Oregon has already beaten Boise, it's irrelevant when we get to the end of championship weekend. This spot was reserved for a one-loss BYU team or a red-hot Colorado squad that won the Pac-12, but both those teams lost this weekend and opened the door for Boise State. Boise State is currently ranked 12th in the CFP but with just Oregon State and a likely showdown with UNLV in the Mountain West Championship in their way, I think the four seed is a realistic end to their season.

5. Oregon

For my money, Oregon is the second-best team in the country right now so I have them coming into the College Football Playoff as the top seed in action in the first round. A one-point win against Ohio State at home, in a game Ohio State likely should have won, is not enough to convince me they can do it again when they meet in the Big Ten Championship in Indy. In this scenario, Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks get Tennessee at home in the first round in what should be a great game.

6. Texas

Like Oregon, Texas getting the No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff means I'm picking them to lose on championship weekend. I think there is a chance that Georgia wins big in Atlanta and puts some doubt into the committee's minds however, Penn State, Notre Dame, Indiana and Tennessee won't even make the conference title game, so it's hard to punish the Longhorns when those teams were on their couch at home. Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian have a tall task in front of them with Texas A&M in Week 14, but a win pretty much cements a home playoff game. In this scenario, they get an Indiana team that looked completely outmatched at Ohio State.

7. Notre Dame

Notre Dame has the worst loss of the season out of any team on this list, falling at home to Northern Illinois. However, they have wins over Texas A&M, Louisville, Army and Navy to this point. So, the fact that they don't play in a conference hurts their eventual ranking, but the committee had them at No. 6 coming into this week and they stomped a good Army team at Yankee Stadium. After a slow start, Riley Leonard the the Fighting Irish seem to have found their stride. Getting the win on the road against USC this week isn't a guarantee, but a win will give them a bye week on championship weekend and then a home game against Arizona State in this scenario.

8. Penn State

Penn State is currently ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff rankings, so it's a little strange to see them behind them now. However, I think a dominant win over Army from the Fighting Irish in the same week that Penn State escaped Minnesota with a one-point win gives the nod to ND. Tyler Warren is an animal and one of the best pass-catching threats in the country. But James Franklin is still the head coach and Drew Allar is still struggling to find his rhythm at times. So, I think eighth is probably the right spot for the Nittany Lions in this scenario. A home game against Miami in the first round is a good draw for PSU.

9. Miami

I want to have Miami as the No. 3 seed in these College Football Playoff predictions and projections. I love Cam Ward and Xavier Restrepo as a tandem and think they have the talent to beat anyone in the country. But, the fact remains that they've played one of the easiest schedules in the country and looked mortal during a lot of it. On the other hand, SMU has been dominating lesser opponents and their only loss came at the hands of a good BYU team. Traveling to Happy Valley in the middle of December is not the ideal scenario for the Hurricanes, but they are too inconsistent for me to be confident in their ability to win the ACC.

10. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)

Right now, I have Arizona State winning the Big 12 and securing the No. 10 seed in the College Football Playoff. However, the Big 12 is a toss-up right now. Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all have a shot to be playing in the title game, but with Arizona State controlling its destiny after a win over BYU, the Sun Devils are my pick. I do think we get an Arizona State vs. BYU Big 12 Championship as I like Kansas State to take down Iowa State this weekend, but it's tough to pick against Arizona State in that case. In this College Football Playoff prediction, Arizona State goes on the road to take on Notre Dame in South Bend.

11. Indiana

If it was left entirely up to me, Indiana would be watching the College Football Playoff from home and a school like Tulane or BYU would be in this spot, but I don't think we're going to see the committee be that brave. The case against IU is a simple one. Sure, they're 10-1, but they have played one good team all season long. That game came last week against Ohio State and it looked like the Hoosiers didn't belong on the same field as them. QB Kurtis Rourke was lost and the offensive line was completely outmatched in a game that likely should have been 50-10. It doesn't get easier here as the Hoosier would be traveling to Texas to take on the Longhorns as likely two-touchdown underdogs in another hostile environment.

12. Tennessee

I like Tennessee as a team and think what Josh Heupel has done in Knoxville is awesome, but the fact is that they won't be in action on championship weekend and are already ranked behind Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame, who also won't be playing. So, their path to a better ranking is a tough one, although I think there is a scenario where the Big 12 champ gets the 12 seed and Tennessee gets the 11th or 10th spot. Tennessee traveling to Oregon to play the Ducks in Round 1 is an interesting matchup and one where I think we see our tightest spread from sportsbooks.