2025 Fantasy Football Fades: Overhyped Players to Avoid at ADP

I take no pleasure in anointing players as “fades.” In my perfect world, all our favorite players are amazing and we all win championships…

…but the world’s not perfect, and we must prepare for the inevitable - overhyped players that simply don’t pay off for our fantasy teams. When I discuss overhyped players, it’s rarely from a talent perspective. This is the NFL. These guys are clearly talented. However, our best path to victory is drafting players who offer the most value for their ADP. One of the easiest ways to identify players to fade is by looking at mispriced players who simply won’t pay off where they’re drafted. 

Prepare yourself. I guarantee there are at least two players on this list that you’re already “all-in” on. 

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TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

I have no issue with Henderson’s talent. If he landed on any other team, I’d be diving in and buying the hype. However, it seems we are forgetting just how much trauma we endured with the Patriots’ running back committees over the years. More importantly, are we forgetting the offensive coordinator responsible for years of those committees? 

It’s no coincidence that we finally got a Patriots RB1SZN from Rhamondre Stevenson when Josh McDaniels left for Vegas. 

Personally, I worked very hard to escape the unwarranted optimism and chokehold that the Patriots' backfield had on me, and I didn’t escape that chokehold to be suckered back in.

In slight fairness to McDaniels, he was the head coach in Vegas for Josh Jacobs’ massive 340-carry season, and there was that one random LeGarrette Blount year in New England. It’s possible that he sees something special in Henderson and makes him a true three-down back. However, Jacobs, Blount and Henderson are very different backs. If McDaniels goes back to “The Patriot Way,” we’re in for an unpleasant surprise. 

If the Patriots use Stevenson in short-yardage and goal line opportunities, and deploy Henderson as the dynamic receiving back, it could work if the Patriots' offense makes a big leap forward, especially given the youth within the Patriots’ receiving corps. However, I’d prefer a significant discount on Henderson’s ADP with the inherent risk we are taking. Henderson is being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that will likely continue to rise once we get into training camp and preseason because the low-end RB2s are very shaky. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Henderson’s ADP rise to RB18 (currently Chuba Hubbard). That’s too rich for my blood.

I’d probably be less concerned if Henderson didn’t specifically say he’s been modeling his receiving game after James White…

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Here’s a player I truly do love, but must fade - my dear fellow Clemson alumni, Tee Higgins. 

We all love the potential ceiling of Higgins because we know that, despite being the WR2 of his offense, he truly has WR1 upside every week. On any other team, we would have zero problem drafting him as a borderline WR1. However, as a Bengal in tandem with Ja’Marr Chase, he remains in a situation where we are drafting him above his ceiling. His explosive weeks - that beautiful 11 receptions, 131 yards and three touchdowns in Championship Week against Denver - are so tempting. 

If he can stay healthy and contribute on a more consistent basis, he would pay off at his lofty borderline WR1 ADP…in theory. However, we can’t base our picks on theoretical ceilings when we have five years of evidence that his ceiling is a mid-tier WR2.

Perhaps you’re optimistic because he finally has his contract. Perhaps the contract dispute led to more cautious multi-week absences. But again, that’s just a theory. Why bank on a theory when you can pass over Higgins and target receivers who have proven WR1 upside - Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin - or receivers who are the clear WR1 set for aggressive targeting and consistent volume - Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton.

All of those guys have a far cleaner path to top-five production than Higgins. So while Higgins has the theoretical high ceiling, it’s very difficult for him to get there.

The best he can do is pay off at his ADP, and even that is asking for a lot.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

I fear that the combination of Travis Kelce being over the hill and the Kansas City run game being a mess has made us tilt too far in favor of the receiving corps, particularly overinflating ADP for Xavier Worthy.

I’m rarely one to ignore a late-season rookie breakout and can appreciate the mini-breakout we saw from Worthy. The fantasy production wasn’t mind-blowing, but he showed the capacity for volume and more varied usage, with two double-digit target games, two touchdowns and borderline WR1 and mid-tier WR2 performances.

However, Worthy’s ADP is currently WR22, and Rashee Rice’s ADP is currently WR15. One of these ADPs is inflated. Currently, we have no timeline on the potential Rice suspension and it’s looking increasingly likely that the suspension won’t come in the 2025 season. Rice is also coming off an injury, but his injury happened extremely early in the season, and he’s been a full participant in the Chiefs’ offseason workouts. He’s on track to be ready well before Week 1. All signs point to Rice returning with no ramp-up needed, and if that’s the case, I’m concerned Worthy’s ADP simply doesn’t make sense. Rice should continue to operate as the higher volume receiver.

We can make a comparison to a WR2 being drafted five spots after Worthy - Jameson Williams. Williams just delivered a breakout season, finishing as the overall WR19 in half-PPR and WR20 in average points per game. 

Here’s the concern - Williams achieved that in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Jared Goff was second in passing yards to only Joe Burrow and fourth in passing touches. While Patrick Mahomes is objectively the better quarterback, the Lions’ offense simply pushes volume far more effectively. There’s roughly a 700 passing yards and 11 touchdowns difference between Goff and Mahomes. The math doesn’t quite check out for Worthy’s ADP. 

Kansas City’s offense would need to push the pass a bit more for Worthy to pay off at his ADP.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Put down your pitchforks!

This is not slander toward Bowers or his talent. He is my unquestioned TE1. My problem is not his ranking as a tight end; it’s his overall ranking that is the major concern.

Why are we drafting any tight end at the 1/2 turn in this fantasy football economy?

In the glory days of Travis Kelce, drafting Kelce at the end of the first round was always about the positional advantage - the fact that he was guaranteed to score significantly more fantasy points than every tight end drafted after him. It justified taking him that early.

I don’t believe that’s going to be the case with Bowers. While there is room for improvement on last year’s unbelievable rookie numbers, the gap between Bowers and the other tight ends may not justify passing over top talent at other positions.

We have to consider that there are significant changes in Vegas. We have a coaching staff and an offensive philosophy change. We’ve got a new, more competent quarterback who will not have to rely only on Bowers and can hit his receivers downfield. We’ve got a potential rookie phenom running back in Ashton Jeanty, who can also contribute in the pass game. While I do feel confident that Bowers remains the first look in his offense, is it truly enough for such an early pick?

Tight end is a volatile position. We witnessed this volatility last year with Sam LaPorta and got burned by an aggressive ADP on LaPorta. And remember, George Kittle actually averaged more fantasy points than Bowers last year. Again, he was a rookie, and we could see him ascend further. However, if Bowers doesn’t hit, you’re passing over guys like Nico Collins, De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, AJ Brown, Drake London, Jonathan Taylor and Bucky Irving.

What are we really doing here?

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