Heisman Trophy Odds: Fernando Mendoza Leapfrogs Julian Sayin, Now 50% Chance of Winning Trophy
The Heisman Trophy leaders swapped spots after Week 12, and now Fernando Mendoza has become the first leader to cross the 50% favorite line. Can Mendoza expand on his lead in the final weeks of the season, or will Julian Sayin or Marcel Reed catch him as the all-important conference championship games approach? Peter Alexis breaks down the latest Heisman Trophy Odds entering Week 13.
Peter Alexis - November 17, 2025, 2:15 PM EST
5 Minute ReadHeisman Trophy Odds: Julian Sayin Barely Edging Fernando Mendoza in Week 12 Heisman Race Update
With only a few weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the Heisman Trophy race has officially tightened into a three-man sprint. The chaos of November has reshaped the board, and for the first time all season, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has taken over as the clear-cut favorite. His blowout win over Wisconsin not only boosted Indiana to 11-0 but also vaulted him to +100, giving him a true 50 percent implied chance at the award. What began as a four-way battle has now solidified into a trio of quarterbacks separating from the field.
Julian Sayin remains firmly in contention, but his performance against UCLA — a quiet outing with 185 yards and one touchdown — allowed Mendoza to reclaim the spotlight. Meanwhile, Marcel Reed has emerged as the most compelling longshot. His heroics in Texas A&M’s historic comeback over South Carolina were enough to elevate him from +850 to +550, reestablishing the Aggies’ quarterback as a legitimate threat if A&M runs the table. With conference titles, playoff berths, and signature November moments looming, this race is far from settled.
What makes this season unique is how each contender’s path hinges on entirely different variables. Mendoza’s résumé is powered by team dominance and efficiency, Sayin’s depends on unlocking more production against a soft closing schedule, and Reed’s hinges on the possibility of orchestrating a dream SEC finish. With finalists set to be announced on Monday, December 8, and championship weekend approaching, every throw from here on out will carry real weight. It is now a three quarterback fight for the most iconic award in college sports.
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Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman Trophy Odds Breakdown
Fernando Mendoza (+100) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mendoza has surged back into the lead after torching Wisconsin for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a decisive blowout victory. Indiana is now 11-0 heading into a bye, followed by a very manageable finale against Purdue. The Hoosiers are all but guaranteed a playoff spot if they win the Big Ten Championship, and Mendoza’s statistical profile continues to strengthen.
If Indiana defeats Ohio State for the conference title, Mendoza becomes nearly impossible to deny. He is the most stable candidate on the board, and for the first time this season, the odds reflect it.
Julian Sayin (+225) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Sayin has slipped from last week’s top spot after a quiet performance against UCLA. The Buckeyes keep winning — now 10-0 — but the lack of big numbers has capped Sayin’s ceiling in the voters' minds. His upcoming matchup against Rutgers presents a chance to pile on production, but the schedule strength remains a concern.
Even if Ohio State wins out, Sayin is no lock to capture the award, especially if Mendoza takes the Big Ten or if Reed pulls off an SEC title run. At +225, the value simply is not attractive unless he delivers multiple explosive games to close the year.
Marcel Reed (+550) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Reed is the most fascinating name on the board after leading Texas A&M to one of the greatest comebacks in SEC history. Down 27 points to South Carolina, the Aggies stormed back in a game where teams previously were 0-284 in that situation. Reed finished with over 400 passing yards and three touchdowns despite early mistakes, and he now has a clear path: beat Samford, beat Texas, then take a shot at Alabama or Georgia in the SEC Championship.
If Texas A&M wins out and Reed caps the season with a conference title, he will have the strongest final résumé in the country. At +550, he is the most live underdog remaining. Mendoza may be the current favorite, but Reed is the candidate who can flip the race entirely if everything breaks his way.
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