North Texas College Football Playoff Odds: Will Drew Mestemaker, Mean Green Grab Group of 5 Playoff Spot?
The North Texas Mean Green are enjoying the best season in program history, and are ranked for the first time in over 65 years. Can Drew Mestemaker and coach Eric Morris lead them to the final Group of 5 College Football Playoff spot? Peter Alexis evaluates their odds and chances of making it to the CFP as of Tuesday, November 25th.
Peter Alexis - December 5, 2025, 7:30 PM EST
4 Minute ReadNorth Texas College Football Playoff Odds: Can North Texas Make CFP with AAC Title Game Victory?
The College Football Playoff final reveal will be on Sunday, December 7th, and few teams have a more unusual or compelling path than the North Texas Mean Green. Sitting at 10-1 and ranked 20th in the AP Poll, this program is experiencing its first national spotlight in decades. Their 34-17 win last week kept the momentum rolling, and their push toward the American Athletic Conference title game has energized a fan base that hasn’t seen this kind of excitement since 1959. Now they host Temple on Friday night as 19.5 point favorites, and the committee will be watching closely as they evaluate which Group of 5 contender deserves the final playoff slot.
North Texas is battling for the one guaranteed G5 spot in the expanded 12 team field, a race that has officially narrowed to three contenders: North Texas, Tulane, and James Madison. The AP Poll has them stacked consecutively at 20, 21, and 22, but the CFP committee has been slower to recognize that trio. Last week, Tulane was the only one ranked in the CFP at No. 24, while North Texas and JMU were unlisted. The Mean Green know the remedy is simple: keep winning and punch their way into the American title game, where they will almost certainly meet Tulane. That championship matchup will decide the G5 auto berth, and North Texas would finally force the committee to respect their resume.
This season has been defined by former walk on quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who has become one of the best stories in college football. Mestemaker has thrown for nearly 3500 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, all while leading the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation at 45.1 points per game. North Texas sits ahead of programs like Notre Dame in scoring, and Eric Morris has elevated this roster to heights no one predicted. Morris is now a hot coaching candidate for openings at Arkansas and Oklahoma State, and several programs are hoping he can bring Mestemaker with him in the transfer portal. It is shaping up to be a chaotic month for the Mean Green, but the postseason mission remains their focus.
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North Texas College Football Playoff Odds
North Texas College Football Playoff Odds & Scenarios Breakdown
North Texas is currently -140 to make the College Football Playoff, giving them a 58% implied chance of earning the final G5 spot. The key is that they will likely be slight favorites in the American Championship Game, which is why they sit ahead of Tulane (+115) in the odds market. The conference title odds reflect the same sentiment, with UNT listed at -120 to win the AAC and Tulane at +130. If North Texas wins the championship, they will be ranked by the committee and will claim the auto berth without needing any external help. Their resume, scoring profile, and conference title would place them clearly ahead of James Madison, who sits at +1040 due to a weaker conference and fewer quality data points.
The odds analysis is straightforward: if North Texas beats Tulane, they’re in the playoff. If they lose to Tulane, they’re out. There is no Miami style chaos path and no BYU scenario where a close loss could still spark debate. The Mean Green have a binary outcome ahead of them, and they fully control both sides of the equation. The committee’s reluctance to rank them so far won’t matter once they claim the AAC title, but style points against Temple could help lock in public and committee support before the championship game.
The most likely threat to North Texas isn’t the committee, but Tulane. The Green Wave have been more respected historically, have strong coaching continuity, and may be the safer resume pick in the eyes of some evaluators. Still, North Texas’s top ranked offense and explosive quarterback play give them the highest upside in the G5 field. If they put together two complete performances to close the season, they will be difficult for the committee to deny.
North Texas now stands one game away from the most important matchup in school history. With the best offense in America, a breakout quarterback, and a fan base rallying around a once in a lifetime surge, the Mean Green’s path is as clear as it gets. Win Friday night, win the AAC, and punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff.
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