Heisman Trophy Odds: Diego Pavia Shocking Co-Favorite with Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin in Final Week
The Heisman Trophy race has no real leader anymore, after an up-and-down year with no true dominance. Diego Pavia has capitalized on that chaos, vaulting into a co-favorite spot ahead of the conference championship week. It's up to Fernando Mendoza or Julian Sayin to make a convincing case in the Big Ten Championship. Peter Alexis breaks down the scenarios at play in the latest Heisman Trophy odds as of December 2nd.
Peter Alexis - December 2, 2025, 2:45 PM EST
5 Minute ReadHeisman Trophy Odds: Can Diego Pavia Steal Heisman Away From Mendoza, Sayin?
The Heisman race has tightened dramatically heading into the conference championship week, creating one of the most uncertain finishes in recent memory. Fernando Mendoza, long considered the steady frontrunner after guiding his team to a 12-0 record, has lost his cushion after failing to deliver big statistical performances in recent weeks. His odds, once as strong as minus 125, have slipped to +160, where he is now tied at the top.
The shocking development is the rise of Diego Pavia, who has surged from +650 last week to match Mendoza at +160. Pavia has never led the race at any point this year but has become a legitimate contender due to the vulnerability of the two undefeated quarterbacks ahead of him. Meanwhile, Ohio State star Julian Sayin sits just behind at +195, setting the stage for an explosive Saturday night showdown in the Big Ten championship.
All signs point toward two primary outcomes. If Sayin or Mendoza wins convincingly on the big stage in Indianapolis, the Heisman is likely theirs. However, if both play poorly or the game becomes a low scoring grind with limited touchdowns, the door swings wide open for Pavia despite his team missing the playoff field. This is a three man race, but with a chaotic path to the finish.
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Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman Trophy Odds Breakdown
Julian Sayin (+195) vs. Fernando Mendoza (+160): The Big Ten Championship Decider
Ohio State enters the Big Ten championship as a 4.5 point favorite over Indiana, equipped with the better defense and the strongest receiver group of the three competing teams in this Heisman race. Sayin has the statistical advantage heading into the weekend, reflected in his prop numbers. His passing yard total is set at 231.5, compared to Mendoza at 210.5. Sayin is also heavily favored to throw at least two touchdowns at -182, while Mendoza’s over 1.5 touchdown line sits at +130.
This gap in expected production underscores why Sayin, despite trailing slightly in odds, has the clearest path to winning the award. If he plays well and Ohio State wins as the market expects, he likely passes both rivals. The question is value. Sayin is the least essential to his team’s success among the three contenders, as Ohio State’s stacked roster would likely be in this position even without him. Both Mendoza and Pavia have carried their programs in ways Sayin has not. Still, with the brightest spotlight and the highest expectations, Sayin controls his own destiny more than the others.
Mendoza’s case hinges on winning while delivering enough statistical firepower to hold off Sayin. He may be undefeated, but voters have been waiting weeks for a signature Heisman performance that has not arrived. If he plays a clean but unspectacular game, he risks losing his lead or falling behind entirely.
The Diego Pavia Scenario (+160)
Pavia is the wildcard who benefits from nearly every scenario except one. Vanderbilt sits at 10-2, one of the best seasons in school history, and likely misses the playoff at +4000 odds. But that success does not happen without Pavia, who has lifted the program far beyond expectations. His case is different from the usual Heisman finalist. He is not playing this weekend, he will not have a final showcase moment, and he might not have the gaudy numbers of past winners. What he does have is narrative power and a path that relies on the failures of others.
If Sayin and Mendoza both struggle in a low scoring or sloppy championship, voters could easily pivot to Pavia as the most valuable player to his team of the three. Neither undefeated quarterback has delivered dominant production. If they fail to seize the moment Saturday, Pavia could win precisely because he already did everything he needed to weeks ago.
In a year without a runaway favorite, Pavia’s leap from +650 to +160 signals how seriously voters and markets are treating the possibility. He is the beneficiary of chaos, and there is a very real chance that chaos is exactly what unfolds.
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