Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Opt-Out Tracker, Transfers, Injuries, Starting Lineups, Best Bet for Xbox Bowl
The Missouri State Bears will head to their first ever bowl game on Thursday night when they take on Arkansas State in the Xbox Bowl. Can the FBS newcomers get revenge for old losses to Arkansas State despite losing their head coach? Peter Alexis breaks down this Missouri State vs. Arkansas State opt-out tracker and transfer portal update with a best bet in the Xbox Bowl on December 18th.
Peter Alexis - December 18, 2025, 5:45 PM EST
5 Minute ReadMissouri State vs. Arkansas State Preview: Who Is Opting-Out, Injured for Xbox Bowl on Thursday, December 18th
The Xbox Bowl features a unique and emotional matchup as Missouri State makes its first ever bowl appearance in its first season at the FBS level, taking on Arkansas State under the lights in Frisco. The Bears arrive at 7-5 after a remarkable transition year from FCS to FBS, while Arkansas State sits at 6-6 after grinding its way to bowl eligibility. Simply reaching this point is a massive accomplishment for Missouri State, and a bowl win would instantly validate the program’s move to the next level.
There is also history baked into this matchup. These programs first met in 1998 when both were still FCS members in a competitive contest. They met again in 2015 after Arkansas State had already made the jump to FBS, resulting in a 63-point blowout against a Missouri State team still playing at the lower level. Now, nearly a decade later, the playing field is level. Missouri State enters with momentum, belief, and a chance at revenge in its biggest game as an FBS program to date.
The one major cloud over Missouri State is the coaching situation. Head coach Ryan Beard departed for Coastal Carolina after the regular season, leaving offensive coordinator Nick Petrino as the interim head coach. While coaching turnover can be disruptive in bowl games, Missouri State retains continuity where it matters most. Petrino has been highly effective calling plays all season, quarterback Jacob Clark will play his final collegiate game, and the roster participation remains strong. Arkansas State, meanwhile, is more established at the FBS level but has struggled with consistency and turnovers all season.
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Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Date, Time, and Where to Watch Cure Bowl
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Odds
Xbox Bowl | Odds |
|---|---|
Missouri State +1.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -1.5 (-110) |
Missouri State ML (-105) | Arkansas State ML (-115) |
Over 55.5 Total Points | Under 55.5 Total Points |
Click here for the latest Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Odds
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Opt-Outs Tracker & Injuries
Missouri State Transfer Portal
- Starting C Cash Hudson
- Starting DE DJ Wesolak
- Starting LT Ebubedike Nnabugwu
- WR Tristian Gardner (465 yards)
Wesolak and Gardner weren’t on bowl depth chart.
Missouri State Injuries
- DT Ryan Williams (last played in Week 12)
- DE Mitchell Toney (last played in Week 12)
Williams not on depth chart.
Missouri State Coaching Change
Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard took the Coastal Carolina head-coaching job. Offensive coordinator Nick Petrino will be the interim.
Arkansas State Injuries
- LG Tristian Smith (stud; last played in Week 10)
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Odds Breakdown - Xbox Bowl
From a statistical standpoint, neither team jumps off the page. Both offenses rank outside the top 100 in rushing, and both defenses sit below 80th in most major categories. The key separator in this matchup is the passing game. Missouri State ranks 20th nationally in passing yards per game, a significant edge over an Arkansas State defense that has struggled to prevent explosive plays through the air. Jacob Clark will be asked to shoulder the offense, and he has been at his best late in the season.
Clark enters this game as the most reliable quarterback on the field. Over his final five games, he posted a 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio and showed improved decision making despite taking sacks. Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor brings athleticism and volume but has been wildly inconsistent. Over the Red Wolves’ final three games, the offense turned the ball over 11 times, including six giveaways in a single game against Southern Miss. When Raynor struggles, Arkansas State’s offense collapses.
The betting market has taken notice. Missouri State opened as a +2.5 underdog and was quickly bet down to +1.5, with the line even flipping to Missouri State -1.5 at times. While just 50% of the bets are on the Bears, a massive 77% of the money has followed them. This exact pattern has already played out multiple times this bowl season, with Delaware, Old Dominion, and Jacksonville State all flipping from underdogs to favorites on sharp money and winning outright. The motivation gap, quarterback edge, and market signal all point in the same direction again here.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Best Bet
- Pick: Missouri State +1.5 (-115) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bowl games like this are where urgency, stability, and quarterback trust matter most. Missouri State is fully bought in, motivated by a historic first bowl appearance, and led by the best quarterback on the field. Arkansas State has struggled with turnovers, may be missing a key offensive lineman, and relies on a volatile offensive profile that is difficult to trust in a neutral site bowl setting.
The sharp money agrees, the line move supports it, and the matchup favors the Bears’ passing attack. Back Missouri State +1.5, with a strong chance they finish their first FBS season with a statement win.
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