Eagles Trade Carson Wentz to Colts: Indianapolis Favored to Win AFC South

The Philadelphia Eagles traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday, making the Colts the favorite in the division
Brian Good
Thu, February 18, 7:25 AM EST

Eagles Trade Carson Wentz to Colts

After months of back and forth through the media, fans screaming to make the deal and rumors of where he’ll land, the Philadelphia Eagles finally traded Carson Wentz on Thursday. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Wentz is headed to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick.

 

A trade had been a forgone conclusion for some time. The Eagles’ relationship with Wentz began to fracture the second the team selected Jalen Hurts with the 53rd overall pick in last season’s NFL Draft. That fracture grew bigger as Wentz continued to play poorly and was eventually benched for Hurts.

There’s no denying Wentz’s poor play. He was essentially the worst starting quarterback in the league last season. But, you can now add the five draft picks the Eagles used to move up to acquire Wentz at No. 2 in the 2016 NFL Draft, along with the $128 Million contract he signed less than two years ago, to the long list of failures for Executive Vice President Howie Roseman.

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So we know where this leaves the Eagles. After winning the Super Bowl in 2018, they will be picking 6th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. They have an aging offensive and defensive line, a lack of talent on the outside on both sides of the ball and, as of now, they have Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback.

But what about the Colts? How much better does this make them? If they’re getting last year’s version of Wentz, you could argue it makes them worse. But, if they are going to see anything like the 2017 version, when Colts head coach Frank Reich was his offensive coordinator, Indy could be a sleeper for a Super Bowl run in 2022.

Carson Wentz Traded to Indianapolis: AFC South Champion Betting

The real movement we’ve seen in the Colts betting market has come within the division. Last week, prior to the Wentz trade, the Colts were +130 to win the AFC South, sitting behind the favorite Tennessee Titans (-115).

Now, following the acquisition of Wentz, the Colts have jumped the Titans and become the favorites. The best odds you can find on Indy are +110, but they’re odds-on in some places, popping up as short as -110. As for the Titans, their best odds have jumped to +120.

Carson Wentz Traded to Indianapolis: Colts Super Bowl Betting

When analyzing a trade, or any player acquisition, looking at the odds can provide a glimpse into what to expect from said move. As of Thursday, immediately following Wentz being traded from Philadelphia to Indianapolis, the Colts are currently +2900 to win the Super Bowl next season. But, they can be found as short as +2200 at some places.

Their best odds imply a 3.3% chance of winning the team’s first Super Bowl since the Peyton Manning era. Meanwhile, +2200 is indicative of 4.3% shot.

Indianapolis Colts AFC South Champion Odds

Odds Prior to Trade Implied Probability Odds After Trade (Click to bet) Implied Probability
+130 43.5% +110 47.6%
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