Russell Wilson Odds: Is Russell Wilson A Fade For MVP In 2021?

Can Russell Wilson win his first-ever regular season MVP award? Once again, the Seahawks signal caller is amongst the top faves in the market but he faces stiff opposition in the race from a mixture of young and veteran talents
Nikki Adams
Mon, August 23, 1:31 PM EDT

Seattle Seahawks: QB Russell Wilson's Odds

  • Russell Wilson MVP Odds
  • Russell Wilson Passing TDs Odds
  • Seattle Seahwaks Super Bowl Odds

Books are giving Russell Wilson robust MVP odds but, curiously, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback has never received an MVP vote in his career. This rather shocking but inescapable fact begs the question of whether Russell Wilson's MVP odds belie his "true odds" of winning the prestigious NFL award. 

Quarterbacks typically claim the MVP award. Well, that's been the case at least over the last two decades, including a run of eight straight since 2012. The most recent recipient was Aaron Rodgers. However, since Rodgers is the reigning MVP, Mahomes is setting the standard against which the league and, in turn, bookmakers measure the value of the quarterback position.

Books Give Russell Wilson A Reasonable Shot At MVP

Books have unanimously installed Patrick Mahomes as the clear-cut favorite to win, with the Chiefs quarterback's MVP odds topping the board at +500. Aaron Rodgers follows Mahomes but at double the price with MVP odds of +1000. Josh Allen is pegged as the third-best bet at +1200, and then Tom Brady and Russell Wilson follow as joint fourth overall best bets at +1400. The rest of the field of contenders, ranked inside the Top 10 best bets, include Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray (all priced at +1600) and Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert (both priced at +1800)

Theoretically, Wilson has a shot at winning the MVP award, but with so many electric quarterbacks in the league right now, he certainly faces stiff competition in the race. 

Wilson has received many endorsements over his career. He's been called "The Professor," Seattle's "X-factor," or "a game-changing" player. He's even given to self-promotion, too, trotting out the last nickname on social media during last season as he introduced his alter ego "Mr. Unlimited" to the world. A bit cringeworthy…but, well, each to their own. 

Whether you're a fan or not, Wilson is nevertheless an elite quarterback, widely admired and respected by his peers and football fans and who, in all likelihood, will end up in the Hall of Fame one day. He's regularly amongst the top performers in the league, littering the stats sheet with vigorous numbers in the passing and ground game. And, arguably, his most notable achievement so far was leading Seattle to back-to-back Super Bowls – Seattle won Super Bowl 48 at the expense of the Denver Broncos but then lost Super Bowl 49 to the New England Patriots. 

Over nine seasons in the NFL, Wilson has been named to eight Pro Bowls, and he holds the record for most wins by an NFL quarterback through nine seasons (98). In addition, he's lifted Seattle to four NFC West titles, two NFC titles and started in two Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, finishing with a 1-1 SU record. All this put together led to Wilson becoming the highest-paid quarterback in the league a few years ago, setting a new high for quarterback remuneration. (Today, that bar has already been surpassed, though, with Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson all moving ahead of Russell Wilson on the list of highest-paid quarterbacks in the league.) 

Russell Wilson MVP Odds 

Last season proved a mixed bag for Russell Wilson. The 32-year-old quarterback burst out of the gates and quickly established himself as a frontrunner in the MVP debate, but his production quickly tapered off after week 5, causing him to fall out of the race before it heated up. He nevertheless led the Seahawks to the NFC West title for the first time since 2016.

Wilson finished among the league's offensive leaders: No.9 with 4,212 passing yards, No.2 with 40 TDs (jointly with Tom Brady), and No.8 in adjusted QBR of 73.5. Conversely, he also was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league with 47 sacks. Only Carson Wentz (50) and Deshaun Watson (49) were sacked more. He also finished with the second-highest number of interceptions (13) and the fifth most fumbles (7). It's these latter types of stats that help to make the case against Wilson in MVP voting. 

Perhaps, even the fact that the Seahawks haven't advanced beyond the divisional round in their last five playoff appearances is another aspect to go against Russell Wilson's odds. Great as making five of the previous six playoffs is, not going beyond the divisional round since the Seahawks made their last Super Bowl appearance in 2014 Is concerning.

These knockbacks weigh down not only Wilson's odds but also the Seahawks' odds. As it is, the Seahawk's strike a modest pose with Super Bowl odds of +2200. However, last season's humiliating 30-20 loss to the injury-riddled Rams in the wildcard round proved to be a seminal moment that precipitated wholesale changes. Most notably, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was sacked, and Shane Waldron was hired n his stead.

Waldron,42, spent four years with the LA Rams – one as the tight end coordinator and three as the passing coordinator. He moves up the NFL coaching ladder but stays within the NFC West division, bringing insight and experience from the Sean McVay coaching program to the Seahawks. It remains to be seen how efficient Waldron's offense will be and whether it will bring out the best in Wilson. Bear in mind it's his first crack at running an offense, but we're unlikely to get a preview before the first week of the season gets underway. 

Russell Wilson Odds & Props

League gossip paints a picture of a high-octane offense under Waldron. Bettors may well consider banking some of Russell Wilson's odds before they shorten if that does prove true. It's a veritable buffet of betting available with a slew of player markets and prop bets. For instance, Wilson is priced at +3700 to finish with the most passing yards this season (9th best bet) and at +1000 for scoring the most passing touchdowns (5th best). Elsewhere, Wilson is projected to 32.5 (Over -112) this season.

QB Russell Wilson MVP Odds & Props

Player prop Odds to win
MVP +2000
Passing Yards Total 4250.5 (Over-112) (Under +100)
Passing TD Total 32.5 (Over -112)
Offensive Player of the Year +2200
Most Passing Touchdowns +1000
Most Passing Yards +3700

Russell Wilson 2020 Stats

CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG RTG
384 558 68.8 4,212 7.5 40 13 62 105.1

Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl Odds And Other Futures Markets

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +2,500
To Win Conference +1,200
To Win Division +280
Season Win Total O/U 10 (O/U -110)

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